Consumption off-season downstream demand is weak, is there an investment opportunity in the paper sector?

Xianhe shares also said on the interactive platform that the company's current production and operation are normal, and production and marketing are in good condition. The decline in pulp prices is conducive to the cost reduction of the company's pulp products. Pulp price is affected by a variety of factors and changes, the company will also make corresponding measures in time to smooth the impact of raw material cost fluctuations, to maintain the stability of the company's performance.

The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is affected by various factors. The Company always pays close attention to the fluctuation of foreign exchange rate and will take various measures to prevent the risk of exchange rate fluctuation according to the actual situation of exchange rate fluctuation. The depreciation of RMB has a dual impact on the company. On the one hand, the company's imported pulp is mostly settled in foreign exchange, and the depreciation of RMB will increase the company's production and operation costs; on the other hand, it will improve the company's export competitiveness.

Zhao Xiaojun told our reporter that the decline in pulp prices has played a certain role in promoting the profit repair of downstream enterprises, but it also depends on the strength of the finished products. If demand continues to recover, low raw materials are bound to boost profits sharply. If the recovery is slow, the replenishment is intermittent, and it will still affect the normal operation of the enterprise.

"At present, pulp is close to the historical low price range, and it is still in the process of finding the bottom and grinding the bottom, and it is necessary to wait for fundamental changes, such as the slowdown of pulp mill capacity, the reduction of exports, and the continued recovery of downstream demand, so that it is possible to gradually exit the bottom range." Zhao Xiaojun said.

In addition, Wu Xinyang said that the decline in pulp prices can reduce the cost of paper companies. In the cost of papermaking, according to the annual reports of some listed companies, the cost of raw materials in the cost of papermaking accounts for 60%-80%, which also needs to consider the bargaining power of the enterprise itself. Even in the process of pulp price decline, whether the price of the end product follows, or whether there is a delay, these factors determine whether the company can reduce costs at the same time, achieve higher profitability.

For the late trend of pulp futures, Li Qing said that this round of cyclical downward has been close to the middle and back. At present, there is no driving force for the continuous reversal of pulp futures, but from the absolute price determination, the price of coniferous pulp below 5000 yuan/ton does not belong to the overvalued varieties. From the expected point of view, the downward target of this round may fall to about 4800 yuan/ton, and the current disk is not too far away, but there is no rise in the core drive, the later price may still enter a weak shock or find the bottom of the link.