How dependent is Europe on Russian oil and gas?

After the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union was eager to expand its sources of gas. At present, the United States has agreed to ship 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe by the end of the year, but this 15 billion can be said to be a drop in the bucket. And finding more gas from other countries in the short term is not so easy, because these countries have limited capacity and tend to prioritize buyers who already have contracts with them. Not to mention the cost and distance disadvantage of these countries compared to Russia.

After announcing in March that it would reduce Russian gas imports as much as possible, the European Commission calculated what would replace the two-thirds of Russian gas imports (about 100bn cubic metres) : 50bn cubic metres of ultra-cooled LNG and liquefied natural gas from other sources, and 10bn cubic metres of pipeline gas; This is followed by 20 BCM of reduced demand from new solar and wind projects coming online this year; Finally, 14 billion cubic meters of demand is reduced through efficiency gains.

But anyone with a discernable eye can see that this plan is far too ideal, and that Europe is simply not ready to replace Russian gas. In the immediate aftermath of the war, European gas prices hit a record high, and although they have since fallen quickly, they remain high. A growing number of people are also complaining about high energy prices, and few believe Europe can survive the next winter without Russian gas. This is especially true after Russia stopped supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria. The impact of the embargo on the European economy is self-evident. It is estimated that a total embargo on Russian energy would reduce Germany's GDP by 2-6% this year.

Eu gas prices

At present, the EU is facing a dilemma in terms of energy: on the one hand, if it continues to import energy from Russia, then the EU will have to pay Russia 1 billion euros a day just to buy fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), and this 1 billion euros can be turned into a bullet to Ukraine; On the other hand, a ban on Russian energy will undoubtedly cause the European economy to plummeet, make the lives of ordinary people more difficult, and then affect social and political stability.

It is sad that the energy that once created a "win-win" situation has now become a weapon of mutual threat. Hope for world peace.