Will compliance costs go up or down?

With the influx of other categories with lower unit price, the performance cost of each product is roughly equal, and the performance cost rate is virtually increased. In this way, the performance fee rate can be maintained at the 2011 level, largely thanks to Jingdong's large-scale automation, the continuous improvement of self-built logistics system and infrastructure, and the significant scale after the increase of single volume density.

How big is the drop in Jingdong's performance cost?

The following is a detailed breakdown of the basic composition of Jingdong's performance costs. In the entire performance process, the most important and the two links that account for the largest proportion of performance costs are warehousing and distribution.

In JD logistics costs, warehousing accounts for about 40% of the cost structure, and distribution accounts for 60%. Distribution costs are higher than warehousing, mainly because warehousing can improve efficiency through large-scale mechanical automation, while distribution can only rely on a single person to send, and can only reduce distribution costs through order density.

Jingdong is also building "Asia No. 1" in the country on a large scale, and the performance cost of warehousing will not decrease significantly in the next five years, but the performance cost will decrease significantly after five years of depreciation.

The continuous growth of a single volume, the continued use of the factory after depreciation, the introduction of unmanned machinery and machinery, multiple factors show that Jingdong's warehousing costs and distribution costs still have significant room for decline. How much of a decline?

Storage link 2-3 yuan a single, cut 70%, reduced to 0.6-1 yuan per single.

Based on a single warehouse as a sample, the above chart briefly analyzes the logistics cost and various links of Jingdong. It can be seen that the cost is mainly concentrated in the two links of warehousing and distribution. In recent years, Jingdong has realized a high degree of unmanned storage links, warehousing costs are less and less spent on manpower, and a large part of the cost comes from the depreciation of the warehouse. In the distribution link, due to the wide coverage of user distribution and very scattered, the need for very large manpower investment, resulting in labor costs accounted for more than 85% of the total cost of this link.

Taking into account the continuous rapid growth of express business volume and rising labor costs, it is inferred that by 2020, the total number of couriers will double, the single labor cost will double, and the labor cost of express delivery will exceed 500 billion. The large-scale application of Jingdong robots in the future should become one of the contributors to the further reduction of Jingdong logistics costs.

Previously, Dongge interviewed Xiao Jun, vice president of Jingdong Group and president of X Division, and learned that Jingdong unmanned vehicles are still in the stage of independent research and development and production, and the cost of each unmanned vehicle is still relatively high, but the cost can be controlled at about 50,000 yuan after delivery to the factory in the later period, and depreciation can be calculated for 5 years. Since unmanned vehicles have not been widely used, we can only give you an estimate here. In the previous "In-depth interpretation: After Jingdong has done 2 years of unmanned vehicles, why will rookie Suning follow up?" There is a detailed explanation in the article.

The future operation and maintenance cost of unmanned vehicles is expected to be 300 yuan/month per unmanned vehicle. After the large-scale use of unmanned vehicles, the number of daily delivery trips per vehicle is 4-5, each can carry 20 express deliveries (20 grid, later can be increased), and the carrying weight can reach 200kg. If you calculate 360 days a year, plus electricity, the cost of each order is about 0.65 yuan/single, compared with the current delivery fee of 3 yuan/single delivery per Courier, the cost will be greatly reduced. With the large-scale application of unmanned vehicles, through the accumulation of large amounts of data and the continuous optimization of algorithms, the vehicle path and trajectory will be further optimized, thereby improving the distribution efficiency and reducing the distribution cost of each order.

Therefore, the cost of 4-5 yuan in the distribution link can be cut by 30% through unmanned delivery vehicles and other ways to reduce to 3-3.5 yuan.

The entrance of robots is undoubtedly the most efficient and feasible for Jingdong to reduce logistics costs. The X division and Y Division established by Jingdong also want to let robots and smart supply chain technology participate in these two links, cooperate with sorting personnel and distribution personnel, and further reduce the proportion of manpower in the total cost. After 2-3 years, Jingdong logistics robots have entered the last kilometer distribution link, and the significant reduction in logistics costs should soon be visible.