2025 sand table deduction, evolution path of passenger car industry

Discussion on spatial dimension: Total space in high-line city or low-line city?

After the epidemic is alleviated in 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in fourth-tier and below cities far exceeds the overall level of the country, which is the highest among all cities. This is mainly related to the fact that after the new coronavirus epidemic, the number of fourth-tier cities is lower, and the "independent travel just need" is stronger. Since then, sales in fourth-tier and below cities have continued to recover faster than first-tier and second-tier cities, becoming the main driving force for market recovery, which is in stark contrast to the sales decline in third-tier cities since 2018.

We have already explained in the previous paragraph that there is a significant positive correlation between the growth of economic aggregate and the number of passenger vehicles. However, from a micro point of view, urban road planning, congestion problems, and purchase restriction policies are already bottlenecks in the growth of the number of first-tier cities. Through the comparison of 1,000 people's car ownership in China's first-tier and new first-tier cities, it can be seen that in fact, the number of economically developed first-tier cities "North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" (based on the permanent population) is not outstanding, and the corresponding relationship between 1,000 people's car ownership and the degree of economic development is not obvious after the number of people reaches more than 200. On the contrary, high population density and congested traffic conditions may become a bottleneck restricting the growth of the number of first - and second-tier cities. For example, among the top 10 cities in China, only Suzhou, Dongguan, Zhengzhou and Changsha are first - and second-tier cities, and many other cities with high car ownership are not economically developed cities in the traditional sense.