The supply chain system and organizational structure of traditional automobile enterprises remain unchanged

Looking back at 2021, subject to multiple uncertainties such as chip tightness, rising raw material prices, and battery shortage, upstream and downstream enterprises in the automotive industry chain are carrying heavy loads forward. This year, traditional car companies are moving forward in the storm, and the new forces of car making are walking on thin ice in the wind and rain.

However, there are still surprises and hopes under the turbulence and difficulties: after three consecutive years of decline, China's auto market finally returned to positive growth in 2021; New energy vehicles ushered in a comprehensive outbreak, showing a good development situation of market size and development quality; When the first batch of new Chinese Internet car-making forces crossed the line of life and death and initially gained a foothold, Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Apple and other technology giants have poured into the car-making track, and at the end of 2021, a wave of car-making "after wave" including Light Orange Times, box cars, Niu Electric, group cars and other car-making businesses have started......

Before the Spring Festival, the article "Salute 2021 | Chinese automobile, tear down the wall of thinking" reviewed the changes of China's automobile industry in 2021, now we will combine industrial dynamics and company layout, and try to predict the new changes, new patterns and new trends of the automobile industry in 2022.

From a macro point of view, on the basis of the bright achievements of China's auto market in 2021, in 2022, for the development of China's auto industry, there are also opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy, China's new energy vehicle market will continue to grow; The automobile is accelerating from the traditional manufacturing industry to the high-tech industry of cross-industry integration, China's intelligent network car has a huge prospect, and China is also becoming the innovation fulcrum of the global automobile industry.

From a micro point of view, the Internet giants represented by Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Didi, 360, etc., have deeply poured into the automotive industry, stirring up a pool of spring water. The traditional car companies that originally stood in the center of the stage are faced with the choice of "soul".

Not only is the change of car companies, in the marketing of new energy vehicles, many companies are carrying out a lot of exploration and practice based on their own positioning and user perspective.

By the "magic child Nezha", "Transformers" concept marketing of the United, "what the people need, we produce what" Wuling and other enterprises cross-border marketing can be said to be the wind, Euler's female marketing is winning the market favor, SAIC mass channel to make important adjustments, the new platform electric vehicle ID test water agent system...

Recently, the China Automobile Thirty think tank officially launched the "Forecast 2022" series of interviews, this dialogue invited Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Circulation Association, to predict the pattern and trend of China's automobile industry in 2022 around the changes in the automobile circulation industry.

"The development of the channel to today, whether it is the authorization model or the direct marketing model, the role is to make the customer experience and customer satisfaction continue to improve." Under this premise, it is necessary to further think about how to use new technologies and new models to reduce costs and improve efficiency. In other words, the future direction of channel change, one is the customer, the second is efficiency." In the face of the channel change direction of the industry debate in the past two years, Shen Jinjun said.

In Shen Jinjin's view, the channel will always exist, but the change of the channel is inevitable, because the product is changing, consumers' consumption habits are also changing, but how to change, whether to abandon the current authorization system and re-establish a direct system, or combine the existing authorization system through digital transformation to improve efficiency, improve customer experience and satisfaction. The ideal sales model must be able to find the best balance between cost, efficiency and user experience, which is actually the most important consideration for car manufacturers.

"Although NIO and Tesla have a significant effect on the direct operation model, traditional car companies should realize that there are three differences between new forces and traditional car companies: the first is the supply chain system, the second is the organizational structure, and the third is the marketing model." The existence of these three factors is the reason why traditional car companies are difficult to copy the new power model, and the existing supply chain and organizational structure is not a system that can support the direct operation model." Shen Jinjun pointed out.

In addition, for the arrival of 2022, Shen Jinjin expects that China's auto market will undergo relatively large structural changes, and new energy vehicle consumption will shift from the past policy-driven to policy and market two-wheel drive. New energy vehicles must be a bright spot in the growth of the auto market in 2022, and another bright spot is used cars.

Customer and efficiency determine the direction of channel change

Think tank Jun: Channel reform is a hot topic in the past two years, what is the direction of channel reform in the future? How will dealers transform?

Shen Jinjun: In the channel, in fact, the dealer is a passive party. The channel is the channel of the brand, and the change of the channel is the channel change of the brand, so the initiative of the channel change is in the hands of the brand. Although dealers are one of the main subjects of change, dealers passively accept changes, and authorized brands let dealers do what they can do. This is an issue that needs to be stated.

Referring to the direction of channel change, in fact, the development of the channel to today, whether it is the authorization model or the direct marketing model, the role is to make the customer experience good and the customer satisfaction constantly improve. Under this premise, we should further think about how to use new technologies and new models to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

In other words, the future direction of channel change, one is the customer, the second is efficiency.

Think tank Jun: Since last year, the rapid popularization of new energy vehicles has brought many different development opportunities, how do you think about the changes brought by new energy vehicles to the channel?

Shen Jinjun: When it comes to new energy vehicles, we cannot ignore the role of Tesla, especially in the construction of the marketing system, which has walked out of a different road from others, that is, the road of direct operation that everyone is talking about today. In the face of the Chinese market, Tesla has actually made a lot of changes, such as from the very beginning of supermarket stores, slowly returning to explore and build 4S mode channel outlets, such as from the past delivery center to the present constantly enrich the after-sales service system. Tesla is not only the pioneer of new energy vehicles, but also the promoter of automobile marketing model innovation.

So, in China's new energy vehicle industry, the industry believes that the direct model can directly face the customer, and the authorization system can not directly face the customer, can not understand the customer, can not operate the customer, so the authorized distribution model is backward.

But I don't agree with that.

In the traditional authorization system, although customers are in the hands of dealers, but with the progress of technology, the development of automobile intelligence, in fact, the information of each car user has been fully grasped in the hands of automobile manufacturers; In addition, in the authorization system, an important role of 4S stores is information feedback, vehicle quality, service quality and so on. In other words, information feedback, feedback is customer demand, including products, including services.

Therefore, in the field of new energy vehicles, new car manufacturers will be based on direct operations, and a variety of models coexist; The marketing channels of new energy vehicles of traditional car companies may be based on the original channels, the use of new technology, according to the changes of products and customer consumer demand, to do some innovative changes.

Think tank Jun: In the field of circulation, will Tesla try other ways in the future?

Shen Jinjun: From a large system, Tesla will always insist on direct operation, but on the road to direct operation, it does not mean that everything is done by itself.

For example, in the after-sales service system, it is possible to rely on a large number of third parties, or with the help of these resources of authorized dealers, which will not affect the direct route, but also improve efficiency.

In fact, compared with the direct model, Tesla's biggest difference is continuous innovation, whether in terms of mechanical properties, or in the intelligent level, whether in the hardware level, or in the software level, are constantly moving forward. Tesla's biggest bonus to customers is the continuous improvement of its products.

Supply chain system and organization structure affect channel model

Think tank Jun: In the field of new energy vehicles, will direct sales become a trend?

Shen Jinjun: First of all, the channel will always exist, and the sales model is only a choice or result of the final, there is an authorization system, but also a direct system.

Brand manufacturers should first be clear about the existing channels of the authorization system, where its value is and what the advantages and disadvantages are. Channel changes are inevitable, because products are changing and consumers' consumption habits are also changing, but how to change, whether to abandon the current authorization system and re-establish a direct operating system, or combine the existing authorization system through digital transformation to improve efficiency, improve customer experience and satisfaction, I think the ideal sales model, It must be able to find the best balance between cost, efficiency and user experience, which is actually the most important consideration for car manufacturers.

We review the origin of the new energy vehicle direct model, because Tesla these new car brands at the time of its creation, there is no channel itself, so gradually explore out of a suitable for their own road, and the existing traditional car companies, especially with strong competitiveness of these companies should consider: How to make good use of its existing channels and systems, while using digital technology to improve efficiency, so as to achieve the effect of brand development. The transformation of dealers should also keep up with the pace of brand transformation, if the transformation is successful, I think the value and competitiveness of the authorization system can not be underestimated.

Think tank Jun: So far, have there been successful cases of authorization system transformation? What do you think of the Volkswagen ID series agency system attempt? For new energy vehicles, is the agency system really a particularly good model?

Shen Jinjun: Actually, the agency system was introduced in China as early as 25 years ago, and it is not a new concept. At that time, the automobile industry in the implementation of the reform of the marketing model, the first reference is Japan and South Korea's commission agency system, and finally gradually evolved into the current "buyout agent" that is, the authorization system, and the current commission agent, in fact, is the agent model, but the dealer to buy the product first.

Back to Volkswagen ID. series, in order to adapt to the changes of consumers' consumption habits, Volkswagen has taken the lead in online sales in the EU market since 2019. Seeing that consumers have the willingness to buy online, Volkswagen began to try online sales in order to meet the demand, but the delivery and service are still completed in offline 4S stores. Therefore, a commission should be paid to the dealer who provides the service. At the same time, it is not limited to online channels, but still continues to sell in 4S stores, which not only meets the needs of different consumer groups, but also gives full play to the role of channels.

This change is adjusted with changes in consumption habits, and there may be less and less offline sales in the future, but this is a gradual change process, not a one-size-fits-all. In the Chinese auto market, the sales of the ID. series may be a one-size-fits-all approach, but the success remains to be seen.

The premise for companies like Tesla to successfully achieve direct operation is that their supply chain system can support the development of enterprises, that is, according to the model of "production according to sales" to schedule production and supply, how many orders to produce how many products, there is no problem of large inventory. Its supply chain is a continuation of the original system of planned production.

There are three differences between the new forces and traditional car companies: the first is the supply chain system, the second is the organizational structure, and the third is the marketing model. Frankly speaking, the existence of these three factors is the reason why it is difficult for traditional car companies to copy the new power model, and the existing supply chain and organizational structure is not a system that can support the direct operation model.

Think tank Jun: SAIC Audi also adopts the agency system, what do you think?

Shen Jinjun: Although SAIC Audi has adopted a direct sales model since its "birth", if it does not change the supply chain system at the production end and still follows the existing mode of operation of SAIC Volkswagen, then in today's fierce market competition, the challenges faced by the enterprise are probably very big.

Think tank Jun: Mentioned new energy, in fact, there are some cross-border car building forces, such as Huawei, Xiaomi. How do you see the impact of these cross-border forces on the automotive distribution industry? Is selling a car in a mobile phone store subversive?

Shen Jinjun: I have not had direct communication with Huawei, but when Huawei's products were preparing for listing, they invited a large number of dealers to participate in their activities, mainly auto dealer groups. So, this is not simply using mobile phone stores to sell cars. In the long run, it is still necessary to rely on dealers to achieve delivery and after-sales service through channels.

In fact, the role of circulation is by no means to increase costs, on the contrary, the pursuit and realization of circulation is to reduce costs and improve efficiency, so we must not misunderstand the role of dealers and circulation.

New energy and used cars are the growth points of the automotive industry in 2022

Think tank Jun: Back to the dealer transformation, entering 2022, has the dealer out of the dilemma?

Shen Jinjun: Since the development of authorized dealers, we have been calling for the production mode to be changed, from "production to sales" to "sales to production" transition, in fact, Tesla is sales to production. If the way of "production and sales" does not change, in the face of huge inventory pressure, the dilemma of dealers will always exist.

In the past two years, due to the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the problems and risks of the supply chain have surged, resulting in an inversion of the supply and demand relationship in the market, and dealers are in a state of no cars to sell, and the profit level of dealers has realized a significant recovery. Although the total volume did not increase significantly, the revenue and profit were very good, indicating that it is not necessary to increase production to increase profits.

However, this situation is temporary, due to other factors caused by the recovery of dealer profitability level is only short-term, if the supply chain improves this year, the lack of core problem is solved, the Oems will be large-scale production. Unless the Oems change the "production to sell" mode of production, dealers will not be able to fundamentally get out of the predicament.

Think tank Jun: Used cars have achieved rapid growth in 2021. Is spring coming to used cars?

Shen Jinjun: In 2021, for the used car industry, the state has introduced a series of policy measures, I believe that there will be a very good policy landing in the used car field in 2022, then the effect of the policy landing is to make the circulation of used cars smoother.

In the future, with the landing of the temporary property rights system, there will be very big changes in second-hand car trading in 2022. First of all, the main body of the market operation will undergo fundamental changes, new car dealers will fully enter the used car field; Second, second-hand car transactions will also boost new car sales; Third, bring about structural changes in new car sales, and realize consumption upgrading through replacement; Finally, promote the consumption of new energy vehicles.

Think tank Jun: What kind of forecast do you have for the second-hand car transaction volume this year?

Shen Jinjun: This year's used car market will still show a good growth momentum, and the growth rate will be much higher than the new car, but the transaction volume can change, but also depends on when the policy can be landed, the sooner the policy landed, the faster the dealer entered, the final effect will be better. In 2021, the second-hand car transaction is about 17.58 million, and the second-hand car transaction volume in China is expected to exceed 19 million in 2022, and will launch an impact on 20 million.

Think tank Jun: How to see the development of second-hand car e-commerce?

Shen Jinjun: We still don't know how big China's used car e-commerce is in terms of transactions. In Europe and the United States, the mature used car e-commerce platform annual transaction volume can reach 10 million, the current domestic used car e-commerce gap is very large, the development of so many years, has not brought substantive changes to the used car industry. I hope there can be a B to B model in China, so that we can do very large scale, and will form a wholesale process. But I think the current development of second-hand car e-commerce, but also need to find a suitable development model.