Current situation and problems of nuclear power development in our country

First, China's nuclear power development status

Since the 1980s, China began to formulate nuclear power policy and build pressurized water reactor nuclear power plants. In 1991, Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, the first 300,000-kilowatt nuclear power plant, was put into operation, and in 1994 Daya Bay pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant with 1 million kilowatts was put into operation. After that, China successively built Qinshan Phase II, Lingao, Qinshan Phase III and Tianwan nuclear power plants. In 2011, after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in Japan, the central government temporarily suspended all nuclear power project approvals and conducted comprehensive safety checks on existing equipment. However, in May 2012, the nuclear power plant project was put back on the agenda, and the approval was expedited.

As of June 2019, a total of 47 nuclear power units were in operation on the mainland, [1] ranking third in the world in nuclear power generation, accounting for 4.2% of the total power generation. At the same time, the number of nuclear power plants under construction in China accounts for more than 40% of the total nuclear power projects under construction in the world. According to the planning of the National Development and Reform Commission, China will have more than 70 nuclear power units in service in 2020, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation, and the proportion will reach 10% in 2030, and the installed capacity will exceed 400 million kilowatts in 2050. [2] According to the policy goals of the National Energy Administration and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the total nuclear power development is 80 million kilowatts in 2020, 200 million kilowatts in 2030, and 400 million kilowatts in 2050. 500 million kilowatts, nuclear power will become one of China's main energy sources. China's "13th Five-Year Plan" outline also clearly put forward: "accelerate the development of a new generation of nuclear power equipment and small nuclear power systems, civil nuclear analysis and imaging, to create new advantages in future development." At the 2018 China Electric Power Development Forum, nuclear power was described as "one of the most promising future energy sources for mankind." [3] According to statistics, in addition to the scattered nuclear power plants to be built, China is using more than 100,000 nuclear radioactive sources, involving more than 10,000 units, and more than 120,000 nuclear radiation devices (units), involving nearly 50,000 units, [4] covering 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions across the country.

After 2018, due to the fierce opposition of the nuclear power development "planning" by the academic community, civil organizations and many professionals, coupled with the adjustment of the national industrial structure, the slowdown of economic growth, and the alleviation of power shortage, the construction of nuclear power plants in the mainland has been "suspended" by the Party Central Committee and The State Council. However, from a policy perspective, the program is only temporarily suspended, not terminated or canceled. Therefore, nuclear safety risks still exist, and it is still necessary to continue to study nuclear power safety and related issues.  [5] The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that to adhere to the overall national security concept, we must "adhere to the national interests first, take the people's security as the purpose", and "coordinate the homeland security and national security". [6] This reflects the country's scientific research and judgment on the security situation and the development of security strategic thinking, and also reflects the country's great importance and firm confidence in maintaining nuclear security.

Two, the main problems of nuclear power development in our country

1. Nuclear power is not absolutely safe

1. The "safety" coefficient of nuclear power plant design is theoretically calculable and has not been tested by practice or experiment.

Because human safety technology is not fully in place, no matter how designed and tested, it cannot guarantee that its "unsafe factor" is zero. [7] Nuclear power plants are the most complex energy systems ever designed, nuclear reactors are very complex machines, and no complex system is guaranteed to be error-free, and one mistake leads to another. People are afraid of nuclear danger because it is so dangerous! The 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident in the United States was "magnified by design-related problems and human error." [8] Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, Gisting disaster, Soviet nuclear submarine K-431 accident, Soviet nuclear submarine K-19 accident, Chalk River nuclear reactor accident, Windesgel fire, Costa Rica radiation accident, Zaragoza radiation accident, Goiania accident, Church Rock uranium ore spill, SL-1 And the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, have exposed nuclear safety design omissions and deficiencies. The results of field confrontation exercises at U.S. nuclear facilities show that "desktop computer simulation and vulnerability assessment alone can only reveal vulnerabilities that the evaluator can imagine", [9] vulnerabilities that the evaluator can not imagine may still be missed.

2. No safety design can withstand man-made accidents and natural disasters

An evaluation led by the French Atomic Energy Commission has shown that no technological innovation can eliminate human error in the operation of nuclear power plants, especially in maintenance and testing, as long as someone makes a small mistake in a very small link, it can cause the entire system to collapse. Moreover, the effects of natural disasters are impossible to prevent. The Fukushima nuclear accident shows that it is not that Japan "cannot make safe nuclear power plants", "but that the Japanese did not anticipate the occurrence of a" once in a thousand years "magnitude 9 earthquake, and triggered a" rare "tsunami." [10] China is a country with frequent droughts and floods, frequent earthquakes, geological and climatic disasters, and there are 22 nuclear power plants planned to be built in the Yangtze River basin, with a total power of up to 2600? 30 million kilowatts. The Yangtze River basin has a record of continuous drought for many years in history. Once the drought occurs, the water source dries up, and it is likely that there will be a major nuclear power plant accident. [11] As Academician He Zuoxiu has said, even if there is no drought, if you pour large amounts of hot water over 80 degrees Celsius into the Yangtze River or its tributaries for months and years, it will kill fish and many living things in the water, causing serious thermal pollution.

3. Nuclear terrorist attacks and war strikes are impossible to prevent

In recent years, international terrorist organizations have been looking for terrorist means that can cause heavy casualties and huge material losses, especially nuclear terrorist attacks. China is also under great pressure to cope with attacks and sabotage by international terrorists, ethnic separatists and religious extremists. Although the level of nuclear security in China has been improved to some extent, it is difficult to ensure that there are no mistakes due to the large number and wide distribution of nuclear power plants, the lack of managers, and the lack of 100% strict nuclear security measures. Moreover, it is technically very easy for terrorists to attack nuclear power plants. In addition to a direct hit on the main part of the nuclear power plant with flying small explosives, power outages, water outages, and cyber attacks, [12] would cause irreversible damage. There is also the possibility of future war strikes to consider. Since the Taiwan question is far from being resolved and territorial disputes with neighboring countries have never been interrupted, it is hard to say that local wars or even large-scale wars will not break out in the future. At the time, as one Taiwanese television host put it, a missile aimed at China's sprawling nuclear power plants and facilities was tantamount to dropping hundreds or thousands of nuclear weapons.

4. China's nuclear power security facilities are actually at a low level

Because the National Development and Reform Commission requires that the cost of nuclear power be no more than 20 percent of the cost of oil generation, Chinese nuclear plants are designed with very low safety standards to keep costs down. The reason why China's nuclear power is "cheap" is because the safety standards of construction are low, and the subsequent processing costs are not included. [13] Here are two examples: First, China's "fast neutron reactor" is based on the Phoenix reactor developed by France, or it has absorbed some Russian technology. In France, the Phoenix pile is recognized as not safe enough performance, no industrialization prospects, has stopped research and development. Second, China's nuclear power plants under construction mainly use the AP1000 technology and standards of the Westinghouse Company of the United States. After 9/11, U.S. law required new nuclear power plants to be able to maintain the safety of the reactor core or containment vessel in the event of a malicious strike by a large aircraft such as a Boeing 747. China does not adopt this design modification because there is no legal requirement to do so. In fact, the upgraded version of the US AP1000 technology was voted out of the security review when bidding in the UK in 2011, indicating that the international community is wait-and-see and skeptical about its security reliability.

2. There is no solution to the problem of nuclear waste

1. The contamination cycle of nuclear waste is long

At present, the life of the world's nuclear power plants is only 40 years, and the nuclear waste pollution cycle left after their decommissioning is as long as 200,000 years, which will leave a huge burden on the environment. According to the research of scholar Wu Hui, after the dissolution of nuclear power enterprises, thousands of tons of high-energy nuclear waste and tens of thousands of tons of low and medium level solid waste remain in the local area, who will supervise, protect and prevent accidents? This nuclear waste can only exist quietly, slowly spreading, destroying everything around it. Foreign studies show that the specific activity of radionuclides in soil is greatly affected by natural sources of atmospheric subsidence, and the effective depletion half-life coefficient of 137Cs is much lower than that of radionuclides. [15] As little as 10 milligrams of nuclear waste is enough to kill, who will keep people safe? Therefore, we cannot only consider the safety of 40 years of operation and ignore the safety of 200,000 years of nuclear waste, nor can we only consider the cost of 40 years of operation and ignore the cost of 200,000 years of nuclear waste disposal. How to properly handle and store nuclear waste to ensure that it will not seriously damage the human living environment for hundreds of thousands of years, all countries in the world, including China, have not found a proper plan.

2. Nuclear waste cannot be decontaminated

At present, the nuclear reaction objects that humans can control are only uranium-235 and plutonium-239, and other radioactive elements such as tritium cannot be deconstructed, and can only be allowed to decay and enter the environment. [16] As a result, high-energy nuclear waste really has nowhere to go, which is why 400 tons of contaminated water were discharged directly into the sea at the Fukushima plant. According to the research of scholar Wu Hui, it is impossible to throw high-energy nuclear waste into the sea, send it to space, or bury it deep on land. Throwing it into the sea has been prohibited by international law, and shipping it to space is safer, but the cost of launching hundreds of thousands of tons of nuclear waste (not including plants, equipment, emissions, etc.) is unbearable, and there is also the possibility of launch accidents. Deep burials on land are also not feasible. [17] The Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site in Nevada, USA, was abandoned after 30 years of planning. The reason is that the nuclear waste is constantly hot, and if it cannot be cooled continuously, it will spontaneously combust, causing a hydrogen explosion, or an explosion when it encounters water. [18] Now the so-called fourth generation of nuclear technology, the "fast reactor" (" fast reactor "for short), claims to be able to solve the problem of nuclear waste. The truth is to use a small part of the nuclear waste, not to eat the whole nuclear waste. Wu Hui believes that even if modern technology can extract the plutonium from it, the remaining residue still needs to be disposed of, and as long as there is a residue, it can also poison all mankind.

3. Nuclear power is a by-product if the cost of subsequent processing is included

First, a nuclear reactor cannot be completely dismantled, but can only be "permanently shut down", [19] because of the intense radiation in its core, which can kill people instantly. So far, the only way the Americans have thought of doing this is to build a crypt to stop the spread of nuclear waste. The service life of concrete is only 100 years, after 100 years in the sun and rain will crack, and even become powder. If you still can't think of a way, you can only continue to build a new tomb, 200,000 years is 2000 layers. [20] This charge is obviously not included in the cost of electricity. Secondly, the disposal of low and medium-level waste (plants, equipment, emissions, etc., contaminated with radioactive materials) is also a huge problem, such as the safety of nuclear waste storage "impact on Finland's ecosystem for thousands of years to come" has been widely discussed and concerned. [21] As a result, the decommissioned Yankee Nuclear Power Plant in Maine has been kept in open storage. The United States cannot solve the problem of decommissioning nuclear power plants, and Germany, France, Japan and China are no exception. According to data provided by Academician He Zuoxiu, a nuclear power plant with a power of 1 million kilowatts needs to build a reprocessing plant cost of 600 million euros, equivalent to building several nuclear power plants. As for nuclear safety measures such as "nuclear transmutation" and "geological repository", we do not know how much it will cost due to the lack of mature technology. [22] If these costs are factored in, nuclear power is undoubtedly a by-product.

4. China's available uranium resources are limited

According to the data provided by the "Nuclear Energy Volume" of the "Research on the Medium and Long-term (2030, 2050) Development Strategy of China's Energy", the world "retains recoverable natural uranium reserves of 5.5 million tons." Among them, the proven reserves of natural uranium ore in China are only 170,000 tons, and the large and easy to exploit natural uranium ore production resources are few, [23] belonging to the depleted uranium country. At present, the world's annual nuclear power needs to consume 81,633 tons of uranium fuel, according to the current production capacity, the Earth's uranium ore can be used up to 70? In 1980, "Because uranium fuel, like fossil fuel, is a non-renewable energy source, it will also be exhausted one day." [24] According to He Zuoxiu's calculations, if China is to achieve the stated goal of "more than 400 million kilowatts of nuclear power by 2050", it will face a shortage of at least "up to 4 million tons of recoverable natural uranium reserves", which already accounts for 72% of the world's total uranium reserves. Dr. Yan Qiang, Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, analyzed that because the demand for uranium ore will greatly exceed the amount of existing resources in China, in the face of sharply rising demand, a serious shortage of uranium supply will soon appear. [25] If a large number of nuclear power plants are blindly launched regardless of reality and objective conditions, once the construction is insufficient, there will be abandoned nuclear power plants everywhere, which means permanent loss of land.

3. Insufficient legislative and institutional safeguards for nuclear security

1. The nuclear safety legislation system is not sound

So far, China has not established a sound, scientific and standardized nuclear security legislation system.  [26] However, there are still many legislative gaps in the field of nuclear safety in China, and there are still gaps compared with some countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany and France in terms of nuclear safety facility supervision and nuclear material disposal. First, the basic law on nuclear safety is missing. The Atomic Energy Law, the basic law in the field of nuclear safety, has been in the works for more than 30 years, but has not been enacted. Second, despite the Nuclear Safety Law, there are still many problems with the law. Third, some regulations concerning nuclear safety are in urgent need of revision. On the one hand, the contents of some regulations overlap and cross, and need to be cleaned up; On the other hand, some regulations are too principled and lack operability. Moreover, the purpose of some legislation is not clear about nuclear security, which is inconsistent with the international legislative trend. In addition, the lack of safeguards for the public's right to know and participate may harm people's well-being.

2. There are some outstanding problems in the nuclear safety regime

First of all, there are many nuclear safety regulatory agencies, and there is a lack of unified regulatory authorities and procedures. For example, the nuclear Safety Bureau of the Ministry of Environmental Protection is responsible for the safety of nuclear facilities, the health and public security department is responsible for the licensing of radioactive devices, and the storage and disposal of radioactive solid waste is responsible for the "administrative department of environmental protection under The State Council." Secondly, in the EIA of nuclear power projects, there are structural defects such as lack of planning EIA and low level of public participation, and lack of environmental quality standards in the construction and supervision of nuclear power plants, [27] resulting in some indicators that should be measured being ignored due to lack of provisions in legislation. Third, there are many defects in the radioactive waste management system. For example, there are no provisions on measures to be taken after the closure of radioactive waste disposal facilities, measures to prevent and control the transboundary transfer of radioactive waste, and there are no provisions on public rights and interests in radioactive waste management. Fourth, there are many omissions in the establishment of a nuclear safety culture, the lack of a systematic education system, and the lack of mechanisms to encourage citizens to raise awareness of nuclear safety. In August 2018, The General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Standardization of Nuclear Power, proposing to rank among the top nuclear power standardization powers by 2027. It is a really wise choice to solve the security problem before developing.

3. Insufficient protection of social and public rights

At present, the construction of nuclear power plants around the country is enforced by the state, in the site selection, operating conditions and other safety evaluation, the public has almost no say, and China has not yet built a nuclear power low-level waste disposal site in the true sense. [28] In fact, nuclear power companies, as market players, pursue simple commercial interests, which are completely different from national defense and military industry. China's Nuclear Safety Law, while clarifying the safety obligations of various entities, does not make clear provisions on nuclear damage compensation, which is a major defect. As for liability for nuclear damage, there is almost no legislation in China, only the General Principles of the Civil Law and the Law on the Prevention and Control of Radioactive Pollution have made some general provisions, and the principles of determining liability for damage, the scope and amount of compensation, the statute of limitations and jurisdiction are not clear.

(4) Abandonment and phase-out of nuclear power is an international trend

1. An accident at a nuclear power plant will cause permanent damage

According to published reports, there have been 16 serious nuclear accidents around the world. Among them, the most serious was the 1986 explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the former Soviet Union. The accident resulted in 93,000 deaths, 270,000 cancer cases, [29] 160,000 square kilometers of uninhabitable land, and direct economic damage of $358 billion, many times the total value of all nuclear power produced in the former Soviet Union. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the 30km area around the nuclear power plant became a no-man's land, and about 200,000 refugees were homeless. As a result, the amount of third-party nuclear damage compensation paid has reached 4.7 trillion yen (about 39 billion US dollars), "the consequences are very serious, and the lessons are quite profound." [30]

In September 2011, four people were injured and one person died in an explosion at a nuclear waste disposal center attached to the Marcoule nuclear power plant in France. "Nuclear accidents have occurred in countries with such advanced nuclear technology as Japan and France, which shows that it is impossible to take all risks into account in the design and construction of nuclear power plants."

2. Some countries have announced the abandonment or phase-out of nuclear power

After decades of practice, it is an inevitable trend to ban or restrict nuclear power in the name of the state after discovering the huge hidden dangers that cannot be eliminated. In 2002, Germany (which generates 31% of its electricity from nuclear power) renounced nuclear power through the Nuclear Energy Prohibition Act. In May 2011, the Swiss government (which generates 40% of its electricity from nuclear) announced that it would no longer rebuild or replace nuclear power plants. After the Fukushima accident, Japan renounced nuclear power. Sweden (which generates 39% of its electricity from nuclear power) decided in a referendum as early as 1980 that it would not be allowed to produce electricity for the next 20 years. Phase out nuclear power generation within 30 years. France has cut its nuclear energy programme in half. Nuclear power plants in the United States are also facing a wave of closures, "although the industry is still vigorously agitating for a nuclear Renaissance, but the current situation is still not optimistic." [24] As a result of the Fukushima nuclear accident, anti-nuclear power countries such as Austria have strengthened their views. Recently, Italy's plan to restart nuclear power was rejected in a referendum.

China's nuclear power "great leap forward" plan is largely led by nuclear power groups and individuals. There are two fundamental reasons: one is driven by interests, and the other is political overreach. For the sake of commercial interests, these nuclear energy companies have ignored the safety of life and property of the country, society and people, induced the government to develop nuclear power on a large scale, exaggerated the advantages of nuclear power, and minimized or even concealed the dangers of nuclear power. As scholar Wu Hui has said, whether nuclear power can be developed or not should be decided by the nature of nuclear power itself, not by nuclear companies - they say "safe" is safe. The goal of nuclear power companies is market and profit, unlike military industries such as nuclear missiles, nuclear submarines or nuclear aircraft carriers, which are for the benefit of national defense. We support the development of the nuclear military industry and the establishment of a strong national defense, but resolutely oppose the pursuit of commercial interests in the name of the state and the usurpation of nature for commercial interests.