Stable output of geothermal power generation, the next outlet of new energy?



Kaishan is mainly engaged in air compressors and whole-process geothermal power generation (equipment, construction and operation), all of which are overseas. In 21 years, the revenue of air compressor was 2.67 billion, and the gross profit margin was 29.3%.

Purported net interest rate of 10% estimated net profit of about 270 million; The revenue of the earth power sector is 50 million US dollars 340 million yuan, it is said that the net profit rate of the power generation business is 50%, and the overall guess is 30%, and the estimated net profit is 100 million yuan. The total revenue was 3.48 billion, and the sum of the first two was 3.01 billion, which was 470 million short; Reported net profit of 300 million yuan, and the sum of the first two 370 million, the difference of 70 million, do not go to find.

Air compressor accounted for 7% of the domestic share, exports are increasing in the domestic decline, the basic disk is stable but there is no imagination space. The beauty of the mountain is the ground electricity.

The interior of the earth is hot, and the temperature near the center is extremely high. Geothermal energy can be used, cold bath, high temperature electricity generation. Indonesia has the largest reserves and the United States has developed the most, while China has done nothing.

The power generation industry, which was previously supported by technology, was not economically viable. Now it's close. China is moving. The world's mainland electricity is quiet, and the global total installed capacity at the end of 21 is only 16GW.

The screw air compressor of Kaishan is technically connected with the generator. Somehow, in 2016, Kaishan aimed at geopower, Fengli Yuli began to participate in the Indonesian and American markets. Six years of hard work, a firm footing opened up the situation, roughly so.

Geothermal power is strong and promising.

No raw material costs; Protected from rain or snow (and earthquakes?) Continuous and stable work, up to 8,000 hours per year; Not as flexible as thermal power, far more stable than scenery. It can't be used for peak balancing, but it doesn't require energy storage. The cost accounts for the advantage of energy storage.

The competition is completely focused on the construction cost, who spends less money on the same capacity who wins, compared with nuclear power is very good, the use of time is the same, less raw material costs, construction investment will not be more than nuclear power, no pollution and safety risks. Better than nuclear power, right? Hey, just compare it to nuclear power.

Geoelectricity was initially developed in a centralized centralized power station, in which several geothermal wellheads were packaged and developed together to share a large generator set. The investment cycle is long, 5-7 years to generate electricity, of course, the cost is high.

Behind the industry engaged in distributed power stations, a wellhead a unit, independent power generation rolling development, suddenly the situation is alive. Kaishan claims a unique distributed geothermal power plant, not necessarily, but it doesn't matter. Can do, did not see the charge or pay patent fees.

The geoelectric industry chain is short, and the technology should not be too complex and sophisticated, mainly to fight resources, capital and cost. In terms of technical innovation at the application level and in terms of keeping costs down, Chinese companies have proved themselves fierce.

Kaishan is so, take resources, build power stations, develop and improve equipment, improve technology and efficiency, do power generation operations. Overseas, it has gone through the whole process of geopower, taking resources, selling equipment, building power stations and generating power.

Most of Kaishan's ground power assets in Indonesia and the United States, electricity prices are about the same level as domestic, not much more expensive (did not see the detailed explanation of the post).

Currently 110.5MW in operation and 260MW under construction; The hand resources are about 1-1.5GW, because there is a 990MW stake in an Indonesian project to be delivered, and the figure is not easy to confirm. Seen A share power generation enterprises, the intuitive opening of this asset is too little.

However, due to the 8,000 hours of use time, 1GW of ground power is about 5-10 times that of photovoltaic, and 3/4 times that of wind power, it can still be taken out.

In summary, Kaishan shares in the domestic not to promote the background of power, alone in overseas broke out a road. After the exploration period, it is not easy to enter the stage of replication and then expansion, and it is worthy of respect.

21 Full year earth power business 50 million US dollars, 22 half a year about 0.8-100 million US dollars (21 years 50 million /2, minus equipment. China reported a 319% increase in electricity sales and EPC power plant construction).

22H1 revenue was 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1%, due to the decline of domestic air compressors and an increase overseas; Net income of 230 million increased by 53%, mainly from the sales of electricity business. The geoelectric plate began to increase in volume, and the prospect of overseas business was clear and high in certainty.

The company said that by 2026, the revenue of the geoelectric segment will increase by 8 to 10 times, to $400 million to $500 million. I think we can do it. We should be able to take off the pigeon king's hat this time.

Considering the competitiveness of geothermal power plants alone, Jin gives a very simple Angle. Compare the amount of investment in photovoltaic and ground power for the same generation. Naturally, wind power should also be added. This part of the data and calculation is important, but my ability is still only rough.

Photovoltaic and land wind single GW investment is 4 billion yuan, this figure has always fluctuated, land wind decreased, photovoltaic slightly increased. Different data sources directly affect the calculation results.

National Energy Administration data: in 2021, the national wind power 652.6 billion KWH, up 40.5%. An average of 2,246 hours; Pv 325.9 billion degrees, up 25.1%. An average of 1,163 hours. I didn't go looking for separate land wind data, though it was easy.

This 2,246 hours includes sea breezes, but at the same time the new land breezes are used longer than the stock. Therefore, 2246 will be used as land wind data. Earth power adopts 8000 hours, and GW investment adopts 20.7 billion yuan of foot gold tycoon.

The annual power generation per GW is 8 billion KWH (I am not at all sure if this calculation is correct), and the investment is 20.7 billion yuan. The same annual power generation of 8 billion degrees, photovoltaic needs 80/1163=7GW*4 billion =28 billion yuan; Land wind needs 80/2246=3.6GW*4 billion = 14.5 billion yuan.

The conclusion is that the overseas geothermal power generation of Kaishan shares, the amount of investment required for the same power generation, has been comparable to domestic photovoltaic and land wind, and is stronger than photovoltaic than land wind.

Although the data is not precise and the calculation is rough, but because the requirements of the conclusion are more extensive, I personally think this conclusion can be used. Kaishan's overseas geopower has successfully entered a healthy commercial growth stage.

Foot gold adopts the international energy network, 14 A-share power plants 22 photovoltaic projects signed in the first half of the year, A single GW investment of 5.98 billion yuan.

Different sources of data, 21 years of national wind power average 1990 hours, photovoltaic 1065 hours; In the first half of the year, wind power was 1156 hours and photovoltaic 690 hours. Different data, especially the GW investment of 5.98 billion yuan of photovoltaic, the calculated gap is very large, but basically does not affect the above extensive enough conclusions.

Power plant operation is asset-heavy mode.

The next step is to borrow money, expand, reduce costs, and make more money. Kaishan is a small and medium-sized private enterprise, the principal is less expensive to borrow money, and it is quite difficult to do asset-heavy business. In the process of applying for abs financing in the United States, it is said that the funding problem will be solved directly through the future.

110.5MW in operation and 260MW under construction. Still wild assumption: the remaining four months of this year to add another 89.5MW grid (for ease of calculation, the actual can not be done, only four months left).

In 23 years, 200MW was in operation for 8,500 hours, and the annual power generation was 1.7 billion KWH (not sure if the power generation was calculated like this?). . Selling electricity 0.6 yuan, electricity net profit 0.3 yuan, about 500 million net profit. Air compressor, power generation equipment, EPC to 500 million net profit.

23 years 1 billion net profit, if 22 years 500 million net profit, performance growth of 100%. The actual 23 years will certainly not reach 1 billion net profit.

Because the company said 26 years of geopower to achieve 400-500 million dollars in revenue, of which 280 million power generation, equipment and EPC 120 million (830 million yuan). The latter net interest rate of 30% is $250 million, which is the management's outlook for 2026.

The subsequent annual operation of 100MW, even if the net profit of 250 million yuan, the result is a significant reduction in performance growth. That is, the high growth rate of 100% performance in 2023 cannot be sustained. High growth and sustainability, in order to have a high valuation, the lack of a discount.

If the operating performance is carefully calculated, the reduction of net profit in 23 years is conducive to the sustainability of the subsequent growth rate of performance, but the high growth rate of the year needs to be reduced.

In short, high growth is sustainable, and both are extremely difficult. Because the high growth rate has rapidly increased the profit base and increased the difficulty of follow-up sustainability.

The high growth rate lasting for many years is extremely rare in the market, which is the root cause of the collapse of growth stocks after the surge.

After high performance growth, investors hit the calculator to find the sustainability of high growth, so the market gives the current market dream rate. And this is more common in the manufacturing industry, in theory, capacity can be almost unlimited rapid expansion, or cyclical stock products.

But the reality is that power plant operations are neither. The calculator can not knock out the high growth superposition of sustainability, capacity expansion can only be stable and orderly, products can not (sustained) price increases. The price of electricity in Europe and the United States rose, temporarily see the information, the price of electricity did not rise.

The current market value is 20 billion, and the net profit of 500 million in 22 years is 40 times PE. I understand that this has included the expectation of future expansion and growth of overseas geopower, and even part of the expectation of promoting domestic geopower.

The market already knows the meeting in Beijing next year, and it does not rule out some funds to buy for this. Otherwise, from another point of view, the air compressor and power station operation of the traditional manufacturing industry can not give a valuation of 40 times.

A share of all power operators, the higher valuation of the benchmark is pure green electricity Three Gorges Energy, H1 net profit 5 billion, a growth rate of 36.6%. The annual total is about 10 billion yuan, the current market value is 170 billion, and PE is only 17 times. Ultra-long-term steady growth of hydropower stocks, PE between 15-20 times.

Thermal power stocks are very sad, and before this wave of thermal power rises, all thermal power assets are probably valued at zero. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is super low, and the recognized high-quality CGN new energy in pure green is only 10 times.

Assume 1 billion net profit in 23 years, 20 times PE20 billion market value, 25 times 25 billion. Therefore, half of my conclusion is that, from the perspective of investment, Kaishan's overseas geopower will certainly do, and it will become bigger and bigger. But the current share price is not cheap, it is worth watching.

China started the ground power, there must be money to hype. The last two weeks were up, right? The volume of 16-20 billion can be too large, and as a speculation target, it is difficult to pull up hot money. It's the only target. There's no choice. That's the advantage.

Domestic ground power, Kaishan determined to benefit from only selling complete sets of power generation equipment.

Building a power station, there are familiar advantages in the early stage, but the domestic infrastructure strength is too strong, the construction advantage of mountain may not be able to maintain for long; Take resources, Kaishan is a private enterprise, the opponent is a central state-owned enterprise. Status, financing rates, government connections, size and power -- nothing beats it.