Gas prices are difficult to break, and gas consumption continues to improve

1. The global gas supply and demand gap is obvious, and some regions are seriously short of gas

1.1 Long-term stable growth of gas consumption, the proportion of LNG supply continued to increase

From the perspective of the Gas supply structure of a region, gas supply is mainly composed of pipeline gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Pipeline gas is transported through the mining site or treatment plant to the urban gas distribution center or the pipeline of industrial enterprise users for transportation. LNG manufacturing is to purify the natural gas produced in the gas field first, and then liquefied at ultra-low temperatures, and then transported by liquefied natural gas ships, tankers, etc. LNG has the advantages of colorless, tasteless, non-toxic and non-corrosive, and is recognized as the cleanest fossil energy on earth, and its volume is only about 1/625 of the volume of the same amount of gaseous natural gas, so LNG can be stored and transported as safely and conveniently as oil. The global pipeline gas and LNG trading is very active, among which the same continent is mostly transported by pipeline gas, trans-oceanic transport is LNG. LNG collection and transportation need to use LNG receiving station, after receiving gasification into natural gas, through the domestic pipeline for transportation.

The main uses of gas are city gas, industrial fuel, gas for power generation and chemical raw materials. There are three main natural gas consumption patterns in the world, namely the balanced gas consumption pattern represented by the United States, which shows that the proportion of the three uses is relatively balanced, between 30% and 40%; The city gas model is dominated by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands have rich natural gas reserves, and the development and utilization of natural gas were early. In the 1970s and 1980s, relatively complete natural gas pipeline network and infrastructure were formed, and the improvement of infrastructure promoted the utilization rate of urban gas. Japan, South Korea as the representative of the power generation gas model, Japan and South Korea are natural gas shortage countries, almost all rely on imports, while taking into account the requirements of environmental protection, natural gas power generation accounts for 50% to 60% of its gas.

On the whole, in the past ten years, natural gas production and consumption are basically consistent, supply and demand balance, showing a steady growth trend. Global natural gas production in 2020 is 3,853.7 billion cubic meters, down 3.08% year-on-year, and consumption is 3,822.8 billion cubic meters, down 2.08% year-on-year. The significant decline in production and consumption in 2020 is mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the energy consumption of the global economy has declined. In addition, the mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere in early 2020 also reduced heating demand. Production of natural gas slightly exceeds consumption and supply slightly exceeds demand, depressing LNG prices.

From the perspective of global gas trade, pipeline gas is the main trade mode, accounting for up to 61%, but its transmission range is limited, so it needs to be supplemented by LNG. In recent years, the volume of natural gas trade has fluctuated, with a compound growth rate of 3.6% in the past five years. The trade volume of pipeline gas maintained a relatively constant level, 755.8 billion cubic meters in 2020, down 5.7% year-on-year, and a compound growth rate of 0.1% in the past five years. The trade volume of LNG is growing rapidly, to 487.9 billion cubic meters in 2020, an increase of 0.85%, and a compound growth rate of 7.6% in the past five years. The proportion of LNG trade volume increased from 31% in 2010 to 39% in 2020, and the status of LNG in the global natural gas trade structure is gradually improving.

The major players in the global gas market can be divided into three categories. The first is self-sustaining countries, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, whose production capacity mainly covers their own gas needs. The second is the big exporters, mainly Russia, Australia and Qatar. The third type of gas importing countries are mainly distributed in Europe and Northeast Asia.

European countries such as Germany and Italy mainly import pipeline gas, mainly supplied by Norway and Russia. On September 10, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Europe was fully completed. "Nord Stream -2" total gas transmission capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, if the project can pass the German "gas transmission" certification, it will greatly increase the natural gas trading volume between Russia and Western European countries. In 2020, China imported 45.1 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas, accounting for 32.4% of the total natural gas imports (139.1 billion cubic meters of total imports), mainly from Russia and Turkmenistan. The global LNG market pattern has initially taken shape, with importers mainly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2020, the three East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea, will import 94 billion cubic meters, 102 billion cubic meters and 55.3 billion cubic meters of LNG, respectively, accounting for 19%, 21% and 11% of the total global LNG imports. The three East Asian countries are mainly the United States, Australia and Qatar.