Understand the world gas market from production to consumption

While oil and gas prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2021 and continue to rise in the first half of 2022, the rapid pace of price increases in the international LNG market is influenced by a number of factors related to the global economic recovery from the negative effects of COVID-19.

Harsh winter conditions in Europe and Asia were also a significant factor in increasing demand for natural gas, leading to an unprecedented increase in natural gas prices in decades. The increased demand is also driven by political tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Events in the global energy market have shown that fossil fuels remain the backbone of current civilization and that alternative energy sources have yet to contribute a reliable share in displacing fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal).

Although natural gas is one of the sources of fossil fuels, it emits the least of these sources in terms of environmental pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, which has led many countries to prefer the use of natural gas over other materials such as oil or coal

Although natural gas is one of the sources of fossil fuels, it emits the least of these sources in terms of environmental pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, leading many countries to prefer the use of natural gas over other materials such as oil or coal.

The world's largest producer of natural gas

In terms of production and reserves, Arab countries have a real presence in the gas sector. Statistics from the Arab Unity Economic Report 2021 show that in 2020, global gas production is 3.8 trillion cubic meters, the share of Arab countries is 584 billion cubic meters, the total Opec production reaches 324.5 billion cubic meters, and the share of non-Arab Opec members is 337 billion cubic meters.

As for the share of the world's major countries in natural gas production, based on previous data, it is as follows:

The United States ranks among the top producers, producing about 914 billion cubic meters.

Russia was second with a share of 638 billion cubic meters.

China was third with 194 billion cubic meters.

Qatar ranked fourth with 171 billion cubic meters.

Then there's Canada, 165 billion cubic meters.

Saudi Arabia has 112 billion cubic meters.

Norway has 111.5 billion cubic meters.

At the Arab country level, second only to Qatar, Egypt produced 58.5 billion cubic meters and the UAE 55 billion cubic meters.

Owner of the world's largest natural gas reserves

In terms of reserves, global gas reserves stand at 205 trillion meters, with Arab countries' share at 54.4 trillion cubic meters, while Opec's gas reserves are estimated at 73.1 trillion meters and those of non-Arab Opec members at 46.2 trillion meters.

Among the major Opec countries with the largest reserves, Iran has 34 trillion cubic meters of reserves.

Among the countries with the largest natural gas reserves in the world, Russia leads with 47.2 trillion cubic meters, followed by Qatar with 23.8 trillion cubic meters, followed by the United States with 12.8 trillion cubic meters and China with 6.5 trillion cubic meters.

The world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas

The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries recently released a report monitoring the development of natural gas in the global market. In the last quarter of 2021 and in 2021 overall, global gas exports in 2021 reached levels not seen in the 50-year history of the entire gas industry.

LNG exports amounted to about 380 million tons, a 7% increase compared to 355.1 million tons in 2020, which means that the LNG industry is playing an increasing role in the global energy market.

Among the countries with the largest market share of LNG exports, Qatar ranked second in the world with a share of 77.4 million tons, after ranking first among the world's LNG exporters for several consecutive years.

Notably, in January, the annual Global LNG report released by the International Gas Union said that Qatar will rank first among the world's LNG producers in terms of both production and exports by 2026.

According to the International Gas Union, production from Qatar's northern gas field project will gradually increase the country's annual LNG exports from the current 77 million tons to 110 million tons by 2025 and 126 million tons by the end of 2027.

Australia led the world with 80 million tons of exports, the United States was third with 71 million tons, and Russia was fourth with 29.3 million tons.

As for Arab gas exporters, exports are estimated to account for 29.4 per cent of total global gas exports, with Arab gas exports amounting to 111.7 million tonnes.

Qatar tops the list of Arab LNG exporters, followed by Algeria with 11.5 million tons, then Oman with 10.3 million tons, Egypt with 6.5 million tons, and the UAE with 5.9 million tons.

The largest importer of liquefied natural gas

Asian and European markets are the regions with the largest demand for LNG in the world. According to 2021 data:

China tops the list of gas importers, with an estimated 78.5 million tonnes.

For the first time since the country began developing the industry in the 1960s, Japan ranked second among global LNG importers, importing 74.4 million tons of LNG.

In third place was South Korea, which imported 45.4 million tons of LNG.

Compared to the Asian market, the largest LNG import market is the European market. Last year, Europe imported 77.7 million tons of LNG, down 5 percent from the 81.9 million tons imported in 2020.

Europe will meet its LNG needs in 2021 mainly through five countries: the United States with 31%, Qatar with 21%, Russia with 18%, Algeria with 13%, and Nigeria with 11%.

World gas market prices

There are two markets in the price of oil and gas, one is the long-term market, which usually enjoys lower prices and guarantees the continuation of safe flows, and the second market is the emergency trade market, which is usually used to meet urgent demand caused by problems in the long-term trade, whether for security reasons or political instability, or there are factors causing increased demand that are not taken into account. In Europe, for example, as temperatures drop, societies need to experience harsh winters.

In 2021, natural gas prices saw an increase unprecedented in the past few decades. The rise has been driven by a combination of factors, including competition for emergency deals in Europe and Asia, increased demand for gas in some economies as they recover from the negative effects of COVID-19, and supply declines in some exporting countries, such as Norway and Australia, due to scheduled and emergency maintenance.

Russia's reluctance to add additional gas extraction has also led to higher prices on international markets, as Russia has increased internal supplies to meet winter demand, and political tensions between Russia and Ukraine have also played a role in raising gas prices.

Finally, European natural gas inventories have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, driving up gas prices on international markets.

During the period October 2021 to December 2021, natural gas prices in the European market ranged from $24 to $37 per million British thermal units, while in the Asian market prices ranged from $33 to $38 per million British thermal units during this period.

Long-term contracts are priced at $10.70 per million British thermal units.

Types of natural gas and modes of transportation

There are different kinds of natural gas, including biogas, which is a fuel produced from natural waste under anaerobic conditions according to certain methods. In addition, there are gas extracted from the ground, which can be classified by depth as deep gas, that is, gas that is difficult to extract, and gas thousands of kilometers from the surface, which is the main type.

Natural gas can also be classified by density, with some used in the production of petrochemical products, the most used in home heating, power generation or factories, and also used in the production of fertilizer.

Natural gas is transported in two known ways:

The first method is to convert natural gas from a gaseous state to a liquid state and transport it by car, ship, or on specialized tankers.

The second method is for gas to be transported through pipelines that extend from production Wells to consuming or importing countries, in which case the gas also needs to be transferred from gaseous to liquid.

Some routes carry gas from extraction Wells to consumption points, both within countries, such as the United States, which has the largest gas transportation network connecting states, and between countries, the most famous being the 6,400km gas pipeline stretching from Russia's Siberia to European countries.

Then there is the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will carry Russian gas to Germany at a cost of more than $10 billion.

Near the Arab region, there is a natural gas pipeline between Egypt and Israel. The Israeli occupying Power wants to build a pipeline to transport natural gas extracted from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe so that Cyprus, Greece and the Israeli occupying Power can benefit from it.

The most important alternative to Russian gas for European needs

Russia is very important for Europe in terms of gas supply because it has large gas reserves, the largest in the world according to 2020 data, and the country supplies up to 18 percent of the gas to Europe.

If Russia's share of the actual supply could be compensated by other sources, such as Arab countries led by Qatar and Algeria, which are geographically close to Russia, they could extend gas pipelines through Russia to Europe, ensuring supply and reducing storage and transportation costs.

But given the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the West, Europe could absorb these transportation and storage costs, or ignore Russia by considering new ways to transport gas to Europe from other countries such as Qatar and Algeria, as well as Nigeria.