Discussion on the Development Characteristics, Trends and Paths of China's Automobile Industry (Part 1)

(2) Market trend: The scale and speed type has changed to the quality and efficiency type, and the segmentation field of new energy vehicles has outstanding performance

1. The probability of substantial growth of sales volume is low and the ability of independent brands is not high

In terms of market size, China's auto sales rank first in the world for many consecutive years, with a high auto market size, but through the changes in the scale and growth rate of China's auto sales in recent years, it can be found that the current market size growth of China's auto industry has slowed down, and even the scale of auto sales has experienced negative growth in recent years. According to the current market size trend, it can be preliminatively judged that the probability of substantial growth in the automobile market in the next few years is not large.

In terms of independent brands, FAW, BYD, Geely, Changan, Great Wall and other independent brand car enterprises have risen rapidly in the past two years, but overall, the strength of independent brands in China's current automobile industry is still insufficient, and the data of the market share of independent brands in China in the past five years show that they are less than half, accounting for about 40%; German, Japanese, American, Korean and European car brands occupy a large proportion in China's auto market, especially in the field of luxury cars, and foreign car brands are still dominant.

2. The new energy vehicle market has the first-mover advantage and is in a new adjustment stage

After years of cultivation and development, China's new energy automobile industry has a certain first-mover advantage, which is mainly reflected in the market size and the strength of independent brands. The new energy automobile industry has gone through the planning stage, the introduction stage and the development stage, and by 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has reached 1.206 million, accounting for 53% of the total global sales. Since 2015, China's new energy vehicle production, sales and ownership have ranked first in the world for five consecutive years, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in 2016, 2017 and 2018 has been more than 50%. In addition to the scale, the strength of China's new energy vehicle independent brands has also been improved, BYD and other traditional car companies in the field of new energy vehicles excellent performance, and Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other car making new forces in the new energy vehicle market segments also have good performance, favored by market capital.

It is worth emphasizing that, under the influence of various factors such as policies and markets, China's new energy automobile industry has entered a key adjustment period since 2019. At present, it is an important time node for China's new energy automobile industry to transition from subsidy policy to integral policy, and the intensity of automobile supply-side reform will be further strengthened in the future. The market vitality under the new situation will be further stimulated.

3. Developed regions lead the promotion of intelligent connected vehicles and accelerate market penetration

At present, the promotion and application of intelligent connected vehicles are led by economically developed areas and areas with good automobile industry foundation. According to the regional distribution of the national intelligent connected vehicle test demonstration zone, it can be found that the current intelligent connected vehicle test demonstration zone is concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing region, Beijing-Hebei region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and other regions with high scientific and technological level, relatively developed economic level and good automobile industry foundation. In such a test pattern, it can not only rely on the comprehensive strength of regions with strong comprehensive strength to provide guarantee for the development of the intelligent connected automobile industry, but also enable the testing of intelligent connected vehicles to be carried out under relatively rich climate and environmental conditions, providing certain guarantee for the diversity and comprehensibility of the test data of intelligent connected automobiles in China. Improve the level of road test data construction of intelligent networked vehicles in China.

Combined with the development goals of intelligent vehicles mentioned in the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy", we can see that the future penetration trend of intelligent connected vehicles in the entire automotive industry will be manifested in two aspects: first, the market penetration rate of intelligent connected vehicles will have a higher growth, and the second is the proportion of high-level intelligent connected vehicles will be further improved.