Chemical fiber "pain period" break the "three consecutive questions"

"Compared with previous years, this year is affected by the epidemic, and domestic textile and garment consumption is weak. The sharp rise in raw materials did not drive the market to raise prices and destock, but compressed market demand, and the price transmission of the industrial chain was not smooth. In the context of weak domestic demand, external demand is also difficult to prop up market demand, and the cumulative value of textile industry export deliveries continued to decline year-on-year." Chen Shengru is saying.

According to Chen Sheng, downstream weaving began to reduce production in April, and this production reduction has continued from April to now, and has not yet improved. Some of the production of cotton mills from three shifts to two shifts, and every festival will have a holiday, which is relatively rare in previous years. The autumn and winter clothing proofing that should have started in July is currently being carried out by only a few companies. "Affected by the epidemic, the textile industry basically missed the peak season in the first half of the year. The sharp decline in raw materials has exacerbated business risks, and high-priced polyester and yarn inventories have depreciated sharply in July."

"At present, the entire industry is facing the dilemma of high inventory and low operating rate. Overall, the negative feedback pressure of sluggish consumption still exists." Pang Chunyan said.

In Wu Wenhai's view, with the development of the market, the business cycle of the chemical fiber industry is getting shorter and shorter, and it has re-entered the downward cycle since the fourth quarter of 2021. "At present, China's domestic demand has entered a period of low-speed growth, and the rise of low-end textile industries in Southeast Asian countries has constantly grabbed the export share of China's textile and apparel to developed countries." China's chemical fiber industry demand is facing a long period of downturn, which is also the fundamental reason why China's chemical fiber industry has entered the 'pain period'."

Second question: How to achieve enterprise breakthrough

The withdrawal of Changle fiber shows that the chemical fiber market in the post-epidemic era has begun a new round of reshuffle, the polarization of the market has intensified, and the head effect has become more obvious.

In fact, at present, the chemical fiber industry is experiencing a continuous increase in capacity concentration, and small and medium-sized enterprises are constantly being integrated and eliminated.

"In recent years, the polyester (filament) industry has accelerated into the stage of large-scale and integrated development. Industry leading enterprises are strong, and the industrial chain continues to extend to the upstream raw material end. At present, four enterprises have successfully extended their development to the refining end, and solved the bottleneck problem of the raw material end that plagued the development of enterprises." According to Wu Wenhai description, after the vertical integration of the upstream and downstream industry chain, it will in turn require the downstream industry links to continue to expand the scale, the need for greater downstream production capacity to support digestion, China's polyester industry is deepening the scale development of the whole industry chain.

In his view, some of the head enterprises are not only the first polyester filament staple fiber production capacity, but also the first upstream raw material PTA and PX scale.

Changle fiber to filament production, in recent years, the industry capacity to the leading enterprises concentrated. At the same time, under the background of integrated advantages of leading enterprises, the living space of enterprises solely based on conventional filament production is getting smaller and smaller, especially under the impact of public health events, consumption is declining, and traditional production enterprises are facing a severe test.

"The trend of industry development is large-scale and integration, and leading enterprises have obvious comparative advantages in the response to market risks." At the same time, companies that do not have scale and integration are also looking for ways to differentiate." Pang Chunyan analyzed that in the past two years, the industry reshuffle was inevitable, and sudden public health events only accelerated the reshuffle in the industry. In her view, in the process of changing the industry pattern, it is necessary for chemical fiber enterprises to prepare for danger, take precautions and consider risk response measures in advance.

At present, the domestic polyester and polyester production capacity is growing too fast, and the production capacity structure is showing a structural surplus problem. "The current chemical fiber industry has a surplus of ordinary fibers but a shortage of differentiated fibers." Tao Jiayi, information analyst of China Silk City network, told the Futures Daily reporter that in recent years, Dacheng has not been satisfied with simple fiber production, but began to extend upward and downstream, some leading enterprises have built refining and chemical integration projects, and Dacheng has begun to get involved in downstream weaving. At the same time, when large factories build new capacity, they begin to tighten in the direction of differentiated fibers.