New energy power generation, photovoltaic, wind power

First, the new energy power generation industry segments and market size

1. What are the sub-sectors of new energy power generation?

Compared with the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industries that we have inventored before, the new energy power generation industry has a simple industrial structure and fewer subdivisions.

From the general direction, new energy power generation can be mainly divided into photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation.

Under these two general directions, there are corresponding subdivisions.

Let's start with photovoltaics.

Photovoltaic power generation is solar power generation.

Mainly includes silicon wafers, photovoltaic cell modules, inverters, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment five sub-industries.

(1) Silicon material silicon wafer

The silicon wafer industry can be divided into silicon and silicon.

Silicon material can be literally understood, simply speaking, is the material formed by processing and purification of industrial silicon.

Different purity silicon materials can be further processed to make different silicon wafers.

Low purity silicon material (purity in 6-7 Nines, that is, about 99.999999%) can be used to make solar silicon wafers, and higher purity (11 levels of 9) can be used to make semiconductor silicon wafers.

The silicon wafer in the "silicon material silicon wafer" we are talking about today mainly refers to the solar silicon wafer.

Solar silicon is the core material for making solar panels, and its importance is self-evident.

(2) photovoltaic cell modules

To put it bluntly, solar panels are the core part of the solar power generation system, whose role is to convert solar energy into electricity.

(3) Inverter

To put it bluntly, it is a transformer whose role is to convert low-voltage direct current (that is, the electricity in the battery) into the 220 volt high-voltage alternating current that we can use in our daily life.

(4) photovoltaic auxiliary materials

As the name suggests, it is some auxiliary materials in the production process of photovoltaic parts, including crucible, hot soup, diamond wire and so on. Photovoltaic auxiliary materials are not core components, but they are essential materials in the production of photovoltaic equipment.

(5) photovoltaic processing equipment

Simply put, it is the machine equipment used by photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises to produce photovoltaic parts. Including silicon rod/silicon ingot manufacturing equipment, silicon wafer/wafer manufacturing equipment, battery wafer manufacturing equipment and so on.

Then there's wind power.

Wind power mainly includes wind power parts and wind power machine two subsectors.

(1) Wind power components

Simply put, it is the key components of large wind turbines, including blades, nacelle cover, spindle, castings, converters and so on. There are many parts of wind power, but they are the core and have a crucial impact on the efficiency of wind power generation.

(2) Wind power machine

Simply put is the assembly of wind turbine enterprises, wind power parts production is good, wind power machine factory will assemble various parts delivered to wind power operators to power generation, compared with wind power parts industry, wind power machine industry technical content is much lower.

2. What is the market size of each subsector of new energy power generation?

Through the above analysis, we already know that there are seven sub-sectors in the new energy power generation industry.

Of these, there are five photovoltaic power generation and two wind power generation.

Then the question comes, what is the status of these seven sub-sectors in the entire new energy power generation industry?

What kind of position, depending on the size of the market to know.

The market size mainly depends on two financial indicators: revenue and net profit.

Revenue is simply how much money an industry or company receives for the goods it sells.

Net profit to the mother simply refers to the money received by an industry or a company selling goods, after deducting various costs, how much money can be earned.

Through these two indicators, we can intuitively see the market size of an industry.

(1) First look at the five sub-sectors of photovoltaic power generation.

Silicon wafer market accounted for the highest proportion, with 41.45% of the market share to earn 68.83% of the industry profit;

The second is the inverter, with 10.06% of the market share to earn 14.77% of the industry profit;

Photovoltaic modules are also good, with 8.35% of the market share to earn 13.62% of the industry profit;

The smallest proportion is photovoltaic processing equipment, although the market share is only 2.57%, but earned 6.02% industry profit;

Compared with the above four sub-sectors, photovoltaic cell modules are too stretched, occupying 37.57% of the market share, not only did not earn a penny, but lost several hundred million, it is expected that the investment value is not large.

(2) Let's look at the two subsectors of wind power.

The market share of wind power machine is very large, as high as 72.46%, but only earn less than 50% of the industry profits, overall, the investment value is general;

In contrast, wind power components are much better, with only 27.38% of the market share to earn more than 50% of the industry profits, worthy of our focus.

Second, how is the development of new energy power generation industry in the past 10 years?

Conclusion first, the last ten years.

Overall, the development of the new energy power generation industry is very good, and the development speed is far ahead of the average level of more than 4,000 municipal companies in A-shares. In the past two years, the speed of development has exploded, and the momentum is very strong.

From the perspective of sub-structure, the long-term development speed of photovoltaic power generation is significantly faster than wind power generation.

From the perspective of sub-industries, the performance of the five sub-branches of silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, inverters and wind power components is relatively good and has developed rapidly. Photovoltaic cell modules and wind power machine these two segments of the industry performance is poor, the development is slower.

After the analysis, we mainly focus on the five sub-industries of silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, inverters and wind power components.

The following is a detailed analysis.

How is an industry developing? Financial data is the strongest evidence.

Financial data mainly look at three points: How is the performance? Do you have strong earning power? Is the revenue quality high?

In order to facilitate everyone's understanding, the net uncle will briefly introduce these three related financial indicators, understand the small partners can skip this part.

(1) How is the performance?

Mainly look at two indicators: revenue growth and net profit growth.

① Revenue is simply how much money you can receive when you open a shop and sell goods.

The growth rate of revenue is whether you collect more money today than yesterday, whether you collect more money tomorrow than today, and whether the small day has passed the more promising.

The specific formula is as follows:

Revenue growth rate =(revenue growth/total revenue of last year)×100%

For example, if you open a milk tea shop, the first year sold a total of 100,000 yuan of milk tea, the revenue is 100,000 yuan, if the second year sold 120,000 yuan, then the revenue growth rate of this year is (120,000-100,000) / 100,000 =20%.

In short, the net profit of the mother is how much money you can earn as a shareholder of the shop after deducting various costs.

The growth rate of net profit is whether you earn more this year than last year, whether you earn more next year than this year, and whether the small day has passed the richer.

The specific formula is as follows:

Growth rate of net profit returning to mother =(growth amount of net profit returning to mother/total net profit returning to mother last year)×100%

Still take the opening of a milk tea shop as an example, for example, if you earn 10,000 yuan in the first year, then the net profit of a milk tea shop is 10,000 yuan, and the second year earned 15,000 yuan, then the net profit growth rate of this year is (15,000-10,000) / 10,000 =50%.

(2) Is the earning ability strong?

We look at ROE and net profit on sales.

The ROE is simply how much money can be earned on 1 yuan of net assets.

The specific calculation formula is as follows:

ROE = (Net profit/net assets) *100%

For example, you spend 100,000 yuan invested in a milk tea shop, the milk tea shop earned 10,000 yuan in the past year, the ROE of this milk tea shop is (10,000 ÷ 100,000) *100%=10%.

② The net profit rate on sales is simply how much money you can make from selling 1 yuan of goods.

The specific formula is as follows:

Net profit margin on sales = (net profit/sales revenue) *100%

For example, if you sell milk tea, buy a cup of 10 yuan, you can earn 2 yuan, then your net interest rate of sales is (2 yuan ÷10 yuan) *100%=20%.

(3) Is the revenue quality high?

Look primarily at cash/revenue from sales

What kind of revenue is the highest quality?

It's better to be able to prepay, the stuff is not produced, the money is already in place. Such a company, cash flow is sufficient, that is, cash/revenue > 100%, the larger the better;

The second is one hand to pay one hand delivery, cash flow is stable, that is, cash/revenue =100%;

The worst is the delivery, the money is still not given, the capital chain has the risk of breaking at any time, that is, cash/revenue < 100%, the smaller the worse.

By analyzing the short and medium term financial data of these three aspects, we can roughly see how an industry has developed over the years.

Next, it's time for the analysis.

1. Performance: Overall excellent, photovoltaic is better than wind power, silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, inverters and wind power components are better, photovoltaic cell modules, wind power machines are poor

(1) First, look at the revenue growth rate: photovoltaic growth rate is faster than wind power, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, wind power parts and components are growing fastest, silicon wafers, photovoltaic equipment processing, photovoltaic cell modules are growing faster, inverters, wind power machines are growing slower.

In the past 10 years, the compound growth rate of revenue of the new energy power generation industry was 24.00%, and the growth rate in the past two years increased to 52.05%;

In the same period, the average compound revenue growth rate of all A-share listed companies was only 11.83%, and it fell to 8.30% in the past two years under economic downward pressure.

Overall, the revenue growth rate of the new energy power generation industry in the past ten years is very strong, crushing the average level of all A-share listed companies.

Look at the structure.

Pv long-term revenue growth is faster than wind power. The compound revenue growth rate of photovoltaic in the past 10 years was 29.70%, much higher than the 17.81% of wind power. However, in the past two years, the compound growth rate of wind power revenue has exploded to 59.05%, coming from behind and surpassing photovoltaic.

Look at the specific industry segments.

① The fastest growth rate is photovoltaic auxiliary materials, the compound growth rate of 10 years is as high as 42.19%, which is nearly four times the average growth rate of all A-share listed companies, but the growth rate has declined significantly in the past two years, the compound growth rate has dropped to 30.21%, falling to the last place, but it is still far better than the average level of all A-share listed companies;

(2) Followed by wind power components, the compound growth rate of revenue in 10 years was 41.89%, and the compound growth rate in the past two years rose to 46.07%;

(3) Photovoltaic processing equipment, the compound growth rate of revenue in 10 years is as high as 29.70%, and the compound growth rate in the past two years has risen to 36.25%;

(4) Photovoltaic cell modules, the compound growth rate of 10-year revenue is as high as 29.27%, lower than the overall growth rate of the photovoltaic industry, but the growth rate has increased significantly in the past two years, rising to 64.59%;

Silicon wafers, 10 years of compound revenue growth as high as 26.18%, the growth rate in the past two years accelerated significantly, rising to 41.27%, but still lower than the overall growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in the same period;

(6) Wind power machine, the 10-year compound revenue growth rate of 14.62%, relatively low, but still higher than the average growth rate of all A-share listed companies, the growth rate in the past two years has increased explosively, rising to 64.90%, large fluctuations;

The lowest growth rate is the inverter, the 10-year revenue compound growth rate is only 8.74%, significantly lower than the average growth rate of all A-share listed companies, but the compound growth rate in the past two years has increased to 52.02%.

(2) Look at the growth rate of net profit: the overall growth rate is rapid, photovoltaic is obviously better than wind power, silicon wafer growth rate is the fastest, wind power components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, inverters growth rate is faster, photovoltaic cell modules, wind power machine growth rate is slower

In the past 10 years, the compound growth rate of net profit of the new energy power generation industry was 22.41%, and the growth rate in the past two years increased to 67.49%;

In the same period, the average compound growth rate of net profit of all A-share listed companies in the past 10 years is only 9.21%, and it is only 8.70% in the past two years.

Overall, the compound increase in net profit of the new power generation industry in the past ten years is quite strong, and the average level of all A-share listed companies is hit.

Look at the structure.

Photovoltaic long-term net profit compound growth rate is significantly faster than wind power. The compound growth rate of photovoltaic (net profit to the mother) in the past 10 years is 35.20%, while the compound growth rate of wind power in the past 10 years is only 13.14%. However, in the past two years, the compound growth rate of wind power has increased sharply to 90.60%, and the growth rate of photovoltaic in the same period is also very fast, up to 58.28%, but it is still less than wind power.

Look at the specific industry segments.

① The fastest growth rate is silicon wafer, the compound growth rate of 10 years (net profit to the mother) is as high as 54.12%, and the growth rate in the past two years has further increased to 63.00%. Combined with the previous analysis, the revenue growth rate of silicon wafers is also good, indicating that the high performance growth of silicon wafers is not only supported by strong real demand, but also strongly supported by G (government subsidies).

(2) Followed by photovoltaic auxiliary materials, the 10-year compound growth rate was 37.79%, and the growth rate increased to 55.88% in the past two years. Combined with the previous analysis, the growth of net income is relatively fast, indicating that the performance of this subsector is not only growing fast, but also the growth of performance is supported by real demand (rather than due to subsidies and the like).

(3) Wind power parts, 10 years compound growth rate of 37.37%, the growth rate in the past two years increased to 93.08%. Like photovoltaic auxiliary materials, they all belong to the double high growth of revenue and net profit, indicating that the growth of the performance of this subsector is supported by real demand;

Inverter, 10 years compound growth rate as high as 35.23%, the growth rate rose to 79.55% in the past two years, more than doubled. In the case of the compound growth rate of revenue of less than 9%, the compound growth rate of net profit of the mother is as high as 35%, and the increase of profit does not increase income, indicating that the past performance growth of the inverter is more driven by policy;

⑤ photovoltaic processing equipment, the 10-year compound growth rate of 28.70%, lower than the overall growth rate of the photovoltaic industry, the compound growth rate of the past two years rose only 41.53%, combined with the previous analysis, the growth rate of revenue and net profit are good, are about 29%, very healthy.

(6) Wind power machine, the 10-year compound growth rate of 6.23%, far lower than the average level of all A-share listed companies, combined with the previous revenue analysis, revenue and net profit growth are at A low level, not worth too much attention;

⑦ The slowest growth rate is photovoltaic cell modules, the net profit fluctuation is very large, the net profit of the mother in 2020 is negative, the revenue growth rate is relatively general, at present, the investment value is not big;

Overall, the overall performance of the new energy power generation industry in the past ten years is very excellent, and the growth rate of revenue and net profit is far above the average level of all A-share listed companies.

From the perspective of sub-structure, the performance of photovoltaic is significantly better than wind power, and the compound growth rate of photovoltaic industry revenue and net profit for the past ten years is more than twice that of wind power.

Specific to the subsector, in the past 10 years, the performance of the five subsectors of silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, inverters and wind power components is relatively good, whether it is revenue growth or net profit growth, all far behind the average level of all A-share listed companies.

The two sub-sectors of photovoltaic cell modules and wind power machines have poor performance and poor stability, so they are not included in the following research scope.

2, earning power: the overall performance is general, but they are in an optimized state, silicon wafers, inverters are better, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment and wind power parts are poor

Earning power depends mainly on ROE and net profit margin on sales.

It should be explained here first that because the financial data of the inverter industry before 2011 is not complete, the financial data in 2010 was not included in the statistical scope.

(1) First look at ROE: the overall poor, but there is an improvement trend, silicon wafers and inverters are high, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment and wind power parts are general

In the past decade, the ROE of the new energy power generation industry is not high, which is less than the average level of all A-share listed companies (the whole market). However, from the trend point of view, it is in an upward state, and has gradually exceeded the average level of the whole market in the past two years.

From the perspective of sub-structure, the average ROE of photovoltaic in the past ten years is 9.30%, which is A little better than wind power, but it is still lower than the average level of 11.86% of all A-share listed companies in the same period.

Look at the specific industry segments.

The highest average ROE in the past ten years is silicon wafer silicon, up to 13.15%, which is significantly better than the average level of 11.86% of all A-share listed companies in the same period. From the trend point of view, ROE has been significantly optimized in recent years, staying above 20% in the last two years;

Second is inverter, the average ROE in the past ten years is 12.96%, higher than the average level of all A-share listed companies, the overall trend is relatively stable, and the ROE increase in 2020 is more obvious;

(3) Photovoltaic processing equipment, the average ROE in the past ten years is 8.77%, lower than the average level of all A-share listed companies (whole market). However, from the trend point of view, it has been in an upward state, surpassing the average level of the whole market since 2017, and the rise is very strong;

(4) Photovoltaic auxiliary materials, the average ROE in the past ten years is 7.74%. From the trend point of view, the ROE has been in a declining state since 2017, but the ROE has soared in 2020, surpassing the average level of the whole market.

(5) Wind power components, the average ROE in the past ten years is 7.65%, and from the trend point of view, the ROE has been significantly optimized in recent years.

(2) Look at the net profit rate on sales: photovoltaic processing equipment is the highest, inverters, wind power parts, photovoltaic auxiliary materials are general, and silicon materials are poor

From the net profit rate of sales in the past ten years in the five subsectors.

① The average net profit rate on sales of photovoltaic processing equipment in the past ten years is the highest, at 15.58%, which is significantly higher than the average level of 8.85% of all A-share listed companies (the whole market). Combined with the previous analysis, in recent years, whether the ROE or the average net profit rate on sales of photovoltaic processing equipment is more than 15%, which is significantly higher than the average level of the whole market during the same period, and the earning power is still very strong;

(2) Followed by wind power components, the average net profit rate on sales in the past ten years was 10.80%, higher than the average level of all A-share listed companies;

(3) Inverter, the average net profit rate of sales in the past ten years is 10.03%, higher than the average level of all A-share listed companies;

(4) The average net profit rate on sales of photovoltaic auxiliary materials in the past ten years is 8.99%, slightly higher than the average level of the whole market;

The average net profit rate on sales of silicon wafers in the past ten years is 6.06%, which is far lower than the average level of the whole market.

3, revenue quality: general general, inverter and wind power components are good, silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials are general, photovoltaic processing equipment is poor.

Revenue quality is largely dependent on cash flow, primarily looking at cash received from sales/operating income.

In general, the cash flow of new energy power generation is general, and only about 90% of the revenue is received in cash, slightly higher than the average level of 87.58% of the whole market.

From the perspective of sub-structure, the cash flow situation of photovoltaic is worse than that of wind power, and it is still in a worsening trend in the past two years.

Look at the specific industry segments.

The best cash flow is wind power components and inverters, and the average cash/operating income received from sales in the past ten years is more than 90%, higher than the average level of 87.58% of all A-share listed companies (the whole market);

Silicon wafers and photovoltaic materials followed, and the average cash/operating income received from sales in the past ten years was about 88%, basically the same as the average level of the whole market;

Photovoltaic processing equipment has the worst cash flow, and the average cash/operating income received from sales in the past ten years is only 78.83%, which is significantly lower than the average level of the whole market.

Combine the above three aspects of financial data.

Overall, the financial situation of the new energy power generation industry is very good, and the overall trend is on the rise.

In comparison, the financial situation of photovoltaic is significantly better than that of wind power.

However, it should be noted that the cash flow of photovoltaic is poor, and there has been a certain deterioration in recent years, and the performance may have a certain "moisture".

Third, what is the investment value of the five sub-sectors of new energy power generation?

In the previous part, we analyzed the development of five sub-industries in the past ten years: silicon wafers, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, inverters and wind power components.

So here's the problem.

How much is the investment value of these five sub-sectors?

The first conclusion:

Five segments of the industry.

Silicon wafer investment value is the highest, but the investment risk is also relatively high;

The second is photovoltaic auxiliary materials, photovoltaic processing equipment, the investment value is relatively high, the investment risk is general;

The investment value of wind power components is also relatively high, but because wind power has higher requirements for terrain, the investment risk is also relatively high.

The investment value of inverters is general, and they also face the competitive pressure of Huawei, an unlisted giant, and the investment risk is relatively high.

It should be noted that the above conclusions are based solely on financial data and the competitive landscape of the industry, and do not take into account the valuation situation. As for whether the current is suitable for investment, but also combined with the current valuation, we will talk about this in the next part.

The following is a detailed analysis.

Before, we mainly analyzed the overall financial situation of the five sub-sectors of new energy power generation.

However, how much is the specific investment value of an industry, it is not enough to look at the overall financial data of the entire industry, but also to look at the industry competition pattern and business model.

The following is a specific analysis of each industry segment.

1, silicon wafer: the investment value is high, but the internal variables in the industry are relatively large

Silicon wafer comprises two parts: silicon wafer and silicon wafer.

Silicon wafers are the core components of solar panels.

Silicon is the raw material for the production of silicon wafers.

Silicon wafer industry is the core industry of photovoltaic industry.

At present, the silicon wafer industry shows a pattern of "one super and many strong".

The revenue and net profit of Longi shares occupy an absolute advantage, and the strength of the other three can not be underestimated, and the market value is more than 100 billion.

However, the market pattern of silicon wafers is not firm and variable.

Why do you say that?

This has to start with the characteristics of the industry and the current development situation.

Silicon wafer is a long production cycle, low productivity flexibility of the industry.

Simply put, the productivity improvement of this industry is more troublesome, not short-term overtime can increase production capacity.

Production capacity is difficult to change, but market demand is constantly changing.

This contradiction determines that the operation of silicon wafer companies is very risky, and if you are not careful, there will be a situation of "oversupply" or "supply is less than demand", which is very passive.

How to solve this problem?

So far, there are two main approaches.

The first is vertical integrated production and operation, which is simply to produce not only silicon wafers, but also solar cells, which are produced and sold by themselves.

For example, Longi Shares, although the main business is the production of silicon wafers, in the battery, components and other subsectors have a layout;

The second is to cooperate deeply with upstream and downstream manufacturers, sign contracts in advance, and "lock demand". For example, Tongwei Shares have jointly invested 15 billion yuan in the construction of silicon materials and silicon wafers with Tianhe Lightyear in 20 years.

Both methods have their advantages and disadvantages, and it is not possible to say who is good and who is bad at present.

At present, silicon wafer is in a stage of rapid development, the competition of various enterprises is very fierce, and the final who will win is still uncertain.

Therefore, the current market pattern of silicon wafers is not firm and variable.

But overall, the current market demand of the silicon wafer industry is very strong, and the competition can also promote the continuous progress of enterprises, so this subsector is still worth investing in.

2. Inverter: The investment value is average, the entry threshold is low, and it faces huge competitive pressure from Huawei

Photovoltaic inverter is the core device of solar power generation. Its main role is to convert low-voltage direct current (that is, the electricity in the battery) into the 220 volt high-voltage alternating current that can be used in our daily life.

At present, there are four listed companies in the inverter industry. Among them, the Sun power supply is the largest, whether it is market value or revenue is far ahead of the other three companies.

However, the entry threshold of the inverter is not high, and the competitiveness of the enterprise mainly lies in the brand and after-sales service.

Moreover, in the field of photovoltaic inverters, unlisted Huawei is the world's largest producer.

There is no entry threshold, but also facing the competitive pressure of giants.

Therefore, it is estimated that it is a little difficult to earn excess returns through long-term investment in the inverter industry.

3, photovoltaic auxiliary materials: strong market demand, high investment value

Photovoltaic auxiliary materials, as the name suggests, are some auxiliary materials in the production process of photovoltaic parts, including crucible, hot soup, diamond wire and so on.

Although the photovoltaic auxiliary material is not the core component, the technical content is relatively general, but it is crucial for the entire photovoltaic power generation industry.

At present, there are 14 listed companies in the photovoltaic auxiliary material industry.

From the perspective of market value scale, only Foster has a market value of more than 100 billion, and other small and medium-sized companies.

Overall, this segment of the industry is normal.

But earning an average return should not be a problem, thanks to strong demand.

4, photovoltaic processing equipment: large development space, high investment value

Photovoltaic processing equipment, simply speaking, refers to the photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises used to produce photovoltaic parts of the machine equipment. Including silicon rod/silicon ingot manufacturing equipment, silicon wafer/wafer manufacturing equipment, battery wafer manufacturing equipment and so on.

China's photovoltaic processing equipment is complete, has a full line of solar cell manufacturing equipment capability.

From the component point of view, photovoltaic processing equipment are medium-sized or small companies, the industry is in the initial stage.

At present, the development of the photovoltaic industry is "in full swing", and the demand and requirements for equipment are expected to be higher and higher, so the development space of this subsector is quite broad.

5, wind power components: broad development space, high investment value, but there is greater uncertainty

Wind power components refer to the key components of large wind turbines, including blades, nacelle covers, spindles, castings, converters and so on.

There are many parts of wind power, but they are the core, which has a crucial impact on the efficiency of wind power generation, and the investment value is greater in the wind power industry.

From the perspective of market value distribution, the wind power parts industry is almost all small and medium-sized companies, indicating that the development of the industry is still in the initial stage.

However, in the context of carbon neutrality, wind power is another important path to replace thermal power, so in the long term, the growth space is very good.

However, note that the progress of the development of components completely depends on the deployment of wind power in China, wind power has higher geographical requirements, occupies a large area, compared with photovoltaic, there is a large uncertainty.

4. What are the investment opportunities in the current new energy power generation industry?

The first conclusion:

Overall, the current valuation of the new energy power generation industry is high, and it is recommended that the valuation fall to a reasonable range.

From the perspective of sub-structure, the current valuation of wind power is relatively reasonable, and it can be invested in a small position; Pv is now valued at a high level, and it is not recommended to blindly chase up.

Look at the specific industry segments.

Silicon wafers and photovoltaic auxiliary materials are currently valued at a high level and are not suitable for investment;

Inverter current valuation is seriously overestimated, not suitable for investment;

The current valuation of photovoltaic processing equipment and wind power components is relatively reasonable and can be placed in a small position.

Next comes valuation analysis.

In front of us, we analyzed the financial data and industry pattern of various subsectors of new energy power generation, and the specific can not be invested, but also depends on the current valuation.

The net has sorted out the valuation of various sub-sectors of new energy power generation in the past 7 years (2014-2020), and calculated the average valuation level of various sub-sectors in the past 7 years.

As for why I chose the seven years 2014-2020, the reason is very simple.

2014-2020 just happens to be a complete bull and bear cycle, and the average valuation of these seven years is more instructive as a comparison object.

After a comprehensive comparison, combined with the previous financial analysis, the following conclusions are drawn.

Look at the structure.

There may be some opportunities in the wind power sector, but there is a certain bubble in the photovoltaic sector, and overall, it is still not recommended to enter now.

Look at the specific industry segments.

Silicon wafer should be the largest long-term investment value, this segment of the industry is the core of photovoltaic power generation, high technical content, large market size, earning power is also very strong, and the development trend of nearly 2 years is very good. However, it should be noted that the cash flow of silicon wafers is poor, and there is a trend of further deterioration, so there may be a certain "moisture" in the performance, and the current valuation is high, so it is not recommended to chase up.

Inverter performance growth rate is general, the entry threshold is not high, the overall competitiveness of the industry is poor. Moreover, among the unlisted companies, there are giants such as Huawei that share a lot of market share, so the long-term investment value is limited. From the current inverter valuation point of view, it is also seriously overvalued, so there is no current investment value.

Photovoltaic auxiliary material performance growth is very fast, but the earning power is general, and such "auxiliary industry" technical content is not high, the industry competitiveness is general, so the long-term investment value is not so high. The current valuation is also relatively high, there are few investment opportunities.

The performance of photovoltaic processing equipment is growing fast, the earning power has been significantly improved in the past two years, and the development prospects are relatively broad. And valuations are relatively reasonable, so there are some investment opportunities.

The performance of wind power components is growing very fast, the earning power is also rising in recent years, and the current valuation is also reasonable, so there are certain investment opportunities.

Overall, the long-term performance growth of the new energy power generation industry is fast, and the growth rate in the past two years is explosive. In the context of carbon neutrality, the future performance growth rate is expected to be no worse. Therefore, the investment value of the new energy power generation industry chain is still quite high.