In just two years, why can Jingdong Logistics turn losses into profits?

So, how to value Jingdong logistics? In the market, there are measures based on the price-to-sales ratio (compared with SF Express), and there are measures based on the price-to-earnings ratio.

Personally, I prefer to compare the price to earnings ratio, but we should first estimate the future operating profit expectations. Previously, we have judged that the potential contribution of open platform to logistics revenue in the short and medium term is about 30-40 billion yuan, and now it is 10 billion yuan, and there will be 20-30 billion yuan of growth space. Since this part is fully market-oriented, We can take SF Express's operating profit margin of around 6% as a reference, which will bring about an operating profit margin of around 2 billion yuan for the whole year.

Excluding the loss of convertible bonds in the first three quarters of 2020, Jingdong Logistics' operating profit totaled 1.55 billion yuan, which is about 2 billion yuan for the whole year. Combining the two sets of data, the annual operating profit of Jingdong Logistics will be about 4 billion yuan in the medium term. If SF Express takes 60 times the price-earnings ratio, it will be about 240 billion yuan in market value.

This is also our more objective judgment of Jingdong logistics, neither too derogatory nor blindly optimistic, and did not incorporate the growth of new personal pieces and separate trunk logistics into thinking, the data is not completely accurate, but the general trend should not have too much error.

Is Jingdong Logistics a good investment target, or what is the prospect of Jingdong logistics? The above views are summarized as follows: 1. This is a company that can have rapid growth in the short term; 2. This is another company that needs to open market-oriented channels and solve the market pricing ability in the medium term, and it is quite urgent. Brand independence and IPO will help to some extent, but in the long run, it still needs the ability to operate, and the quality cannot be diluted in the growth. 3. The above market value judgment is only for reference, excluding the overvaluation or undervaluation of the industry P/E ratio due to the turbulence of the capital market, and does not make investment reference.