Consolidate the foundation of the new power system and promote the high-quality development of photovoltaic "14th Five-Year Plan"

Under the premise that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has been greatly distributed to areas with ample consumption space, the consumption situation of photovoltaic power generation has improved significantly. In 2020, the national average light abandonment rate of 2%, basically the same as in 2019, the photovoltaic consumption problem is more prominent in the northwest of the light abandonment rate dropped to 4.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points, especially in Xinjiang and Gansu, the light abandonment rate further decreased, respectively, 4.6% and 2.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 and 2.0 percentage points.

Qinghai Province has achieved the stable operation of a high proportion of renewable energy power system, which has set a good example for the comprehensive construction of a new power system based on photovoltaic and wind power. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in Qinghai Province was 12.37 million kilowatts, that of wind power was 6.22 million kilowatts, that of hydropower was 13.01 million kilowatts, that of thermal power was only 370,000 kilowatts, and that of clean energy accounted for 89.3% of the installed capacity. The experience and practices of Qinghai Province in the process of realizing a high proportion of renewable energy are worthy of learning and reference from other regions.

2.4 Under the "30·60 target", China's photovoltaic power generation has a broad potential market space

China's huge power demand stock and the incremental power demand required to maintain sustainable economic and social development is the cornerstone to support the leapfrog development of photovoltaic power generation. The Global Energy Internet Cooperation Organization predicts that by 2025, China's installed solar power capacity will reach 560 million kilowatts, including centralized photovoltaic power generation of 370 million kilowatts, distributed photovoltaic power generation of 180 million kilowatts, solar thermal power generation of 9.36 million kilowatts; From the perspective of sub-regions, the western and northern regions are 310 million kilowatts, and the central and eastern regions are 245 million kilowatts. China Photovoltaic Industry Association is expected in the "14th Five-Year" period, China's annual new photovoltaic installed capacity or will be between 70-90 million kilowatts.

China's carbon peak before 2030 is not a unified peak at a time point before 2030, but combined with the characteristics of economic and social development of various industries and regions, scientific planning, and gradually reach the peak in stages, fields and regions. On March 21, Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, pointed out at the 2021 Annual meeting of the China Development Forum that it is necessary to promote the development of an action plan for peaking carbon emissions before 2030, steadily implement the "double control" system of carbon intensity and total amount, and support conditional localities and key industries and key enterprises to take the lead in peaking.

Benefiting from the rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation, the power industry has a lot of technical path choices to reduce emissions, and the implementation of clean power replacement by photovoltaic power generation is more economical to achieve carbon peak. Specifically, in order to achieve the gradual carbon peak in the eastern region, no new coal power projects will be built during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and 40 million coal power units will be retired, which can make room for the development of green power such as photovoltaic power generation.

3 Problems faced by the development of photovoltaic power generation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period

First, the market development pattern of photovoltaic power generation has not yet formed. The rapid change in the layout of photovoltaic power generation in recent years is the result of administrative intervention. In the early period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, photovoltaic applications are mainly concentrated in Gansu and Qinghai, mainly concentrated photovoltaic power stations; In the late period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, photovoltaic applications rapidly turned to distributed photovoltaic, and were mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions, especially forming a dominant situation of household photovoltaic in Shandong Province. With the gradual reduction of the cost of photovoltaic power generation and the realization of comprehensive affordable Internet access, administrative intervention in the layout of photovoltaic power generation should be reduced, and the diversified and balanced development of photovoltaic power generation in various regions of the country should be promoted through market-oriented mechanisms, closely integrated with application scenarios, and the effective use of rich solar energy resources and land resources. At present, the national electricity market construction is relatively lagging behind is the fundamental contradiction.