Consolidate the foundation of the new power system and promote the high-quality development of photovoltaic "14th Five-Year Plan"

In March 2021, the ninth meeting of the Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics clearly proposed that carbon peaking and carbon neutrality be included in the overall layout of ecological civilization construction, and a new power system with new energy as the main body should be built. The 14th Five-Year Plan is the critical period for consolidating the foundation of the new power system and ensuring the smooth transformation of photovoltaic power generation into the protagonist of the power system.

1. The need to develop new power systems

At present, China's carbon emission reduction task is arduous. Developing and building a new power system and consolidating the foundation for the development of the new energy industry is not only a fundamental measure to reduce carbon emissions at the energy production end, but also an inherent requirement to promote the transformation of the power system.

1.1 Reducing carbon emissions at the energy production end is a fundamental measure to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality

In the 21st century, China's total carbon dioxide emissions and growth rate are much higher than that of major economies such as the United States, the European Union, India, Russia and Japan. However, China's per capita carbon dioxide emissions are lower than those of the United States, Russia and Japan, and 46 percent higher than the global average.

Carbon dioxide from fossil energy use and industrial processes is a major source of greenhouse gases. According to relevant studies, in the past 40 years, the growth of China's energy carbon dioxide emissions is closely related to the growth of national product, and has little relationship with the growth of population; In comparison, both energy intensity and carbon dioxide emission intensity show a downward trend, and both are conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emission.

More than 70% of the 2.2 trillion tons of carbon dioxide emitted in the world come from the burning and use of fossil energy, and only by completely getting rid of fossil energy dependence can we solve the climate crisis from the source. China's carbon intensity has continued to decline, and by the end of 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will have been reduced by about 48.4% compared with 2005, exceeding the target of reducing by 40% to 45% ahead of schedule. China's single power and heating sector emits more CO2 than almost all the other big carbon emitters combined in a single country, as shown in Figure 3 below. China's coal power installed capacity and power generation rank first in the world, while the proportion of coal power in the power structure is high, in 2020 coal power generation will be 5.17 trillion KWH, accounting for 67.9% of the total power generation. The large amount of carbon dioxide emitted mainly comes from the operation of coal-fired power generation units. Therefore, reducing coal-fired power generation is the key to achieving peak carbon neutrality. At the same time, the reduced coal power generation provides space for the development of renewable energy generation such as photovoltaic.

1.2 New power system is the inherent requirement of power system transformation

The construction of a new power system based on new energy is in line with the development trend of the transition of the power supply structure to wind power and photovoltaic, and can effectively adapt to the diversified and fast-paced development needs of the power supply construction body.

First, the establishment of a new power system is to meet the basic requirements of safe and stable operation of the power system under the new power supply structure. New power system operation needs to build a new stable operation strategy to achieve real-time balance between power generation and consumption. The power generation terminal of traditional power system is mainly composed of controllable power sources such as coal power and gas power generation, and the system operation satisfies the fluctuating load by adjusting controllable coal power and gas power generation. The new power system is based on uncontrollable and intermittent photovoltaic power generation and wind power as the main power supply, with a large number of power generation units and a wide distribution range, which is very different from the traditional power supply. The uncertainty of renewable energy output and load fluctuation superposition result in the safety operation risk of power system. The stable operation of the power system is more complicated, which requires the power system to have higher intelligent dispatching ability.

Second, the diversification and fast pace of power supply construction objectively require the establishment of a new power system. Compared with traditional thermal power, photovoltaic power generation projects are small in size, large in number, and short in construction cycle, which are bound to make the power system more complex and put forward higher requirements for power system planning. Specifically, the first is to be able to study the rationality of power grid structure and power supply structure in advance, and carry out power planning work more flexibly combined with the characteristics of new power sources; Second, the power planning work should be evaluated and re-compiled more frequently, which requires breaking the rhythm of the original five-year plan of the power system, making full use of digital and intelligent means, grasping the power development situation in time, and adapting to the development law of photovoltaic power generation. In addition, the increasing penetration rate of renewable energy puts higher requirements on the flexibility resources of the power system.