The ship cycle starts, and the structural upgrade is good for the domestic head ship enterprises

In the past decade, major ship types have gone through 1-2 rounds of large-scale capacity dismantling and large-scale bankruptcy reorganization of shipowners, and the fleet growth rate has been declining for seven consecutive years, and has begun to stabilize in 2019. After the global economic slowdown in 2018 and the Sino-US trade friction caused its growth rate to decline, the global shipping total demand has experienced the impact of the global epidemic, and the growth rate has fluctuated greatly in the past five years, but the overall growth rate still maintained a compound growth rate of about 2%. Clarksons predicts that the growth rate of global seaborne trade will pick up in 23 and 24 years and exceed the growth rate of supply. In addition, the Clarksea Index has experienced a stage of rapid growth since 2021, rising to $43,604 / day in May, 22, the best level of revenue since 2009. Affected by the adjustment of the container ship and dry bulk carrier market, although the index has fallen from the second half of 22 years, it has clearly come out of the bottom area, or indicates that the shipping market has come out of the quagmire of excess capacity.

A new round of shipbuilding cycle is starting. With the growth rate of fleet capacity falling below the growth rate of global seaborne trade volume, the excess capacity of the shipbuilding industry in the last cycle has basically disappeared, and the overall supply and demand tend to balance. At the same time, the last round of ship boom upward period from 1987 to 2007, the upward starting point has been more than 35 years ago, the aging problem of ships will increase year by year, if the growth rate of new shipbuilding can not keep up with the replacement demand, the pressure on the supply side will gradually appear. Since the peak of the shipbuilding boom in 2010-11, the growth rate of new ship deliveries has declined significantly, and the overall growth rate of global fleet capacity has slowed down - from nearly 10% in 2010, and remained at a low rate of 3% in 2014-22. Looking forward to the future, Clarksons data shows that the proportion of order capacity in hand in 2022 and 23 will continue to expand, reaching 10.75% in 23, so it is expected that the global fleet capacity will not increase with the increase in demand in this cycle. However, zombie capacity, labor conflict in the shipbuilding industry, docking investment and construction costs, new energy ship construction difficulties and other factors may have an impact on fleet capacity growth.

1.2 Environmental requirements for ships further strengthen the demand for new shipbuilding

The green transformation of shipping is the trend of The Times, and the new IMO international shipping regulations have officially come into effect in 23 years, and the shipping industry will meet stricter indicators. According to the report released by the International Energy Agency, the global CO2 emissions in 2021 are about 36.3 billion tons, of which the CO2 emissions of the shipping industry are about 833 million tons, accounting for about 2.3% of the total global emissions, if no active control measures are taken, this figure will soar to 18% in 2050. In order to accelerate the curb of shipping and shipbuilding industry carbon emissions, slow down global warming, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has specially developed a series of carbon reduction related strategic guidance and indicators: The Ship Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) is calculated for new ships delivered after 2013, the Existing Ship Energy Efficiency Index (EEXI) is controlled for ships delivered before 2013, and the Carbon Emission Intensity Index (CII) is assessed against the ship. EEXI and CII came into force in 23 years.

International shipping greenhouse gas emission reduction policies have been further tightened, and a number of important time nodes have been advanced. The 80th session of the IMO Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) has adopted the latest Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategy for ships, which strengthens the GHG emission targets for shipping and brings forward several key milestones.

At the regional level, regional organizations or countries such as the European Union have also formulated policies to promote carbon reduction in their shipping industry. On 14 July 2021, the EU formally unveiled a package of proposals (" Fit for 55 ") aimed at achieving the EU's 2030 target of a 55% reduction in net carbon emissions from 1990 levels. Three of the proposals, including the inclusion of the shipping industry in the EU Carbon cap-and-trade System (EU ETS), the development of the EU Maritime Fuels Regulation and the revision of the Energy Taxation Directive, Will have a significant impact on the shipping industry and its decarbonisation process. With the entry into force of the law, shipping emissions will be included in the EU ETS for the first time, and most large ships will join the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) from 1 January 2024. As the ETS is phased in, covering 40% of total emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026, combined with the EUA forward curve, The shipping industry is expected to incur costs of up to €3.1 billion in 2024, €5.7 billion in 2025 and €8.4 billion in 2026, respectively.