The industrial chain is deeply cultivated to control transport capacity, and diversified exploration to build ecology

A long wait is a pain point. In 2019, the number of urban taxis in China was 1.102,400 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.48%; More than 50% of consumers said that the average waiting time for a taxi is more than 10 minutes, and the waiting time is more than 20 minutes in the morning and evening peak hours and extreme weather conditions.

1.2. The nature of online car booking is space-time matching, and there is a tendency of multi-platform habitat in both supply and demand

Travel is a local life service that moves at both the B and C ends, and the essence is the matching of travel demand and transportation capacity in time and space. In the pre-Internet era, the society realized the spatio-temporal matching of travel demand and transport capacity by concentrating them in the "station". The traditional offline taxi recruitment model is to sum up the fuzzy demand curve through the driver's personal experience to achieve supply and demand matching.

The Internet has changed the transmission mode of information flow between supply and demand. By improving the efficiency of information transmission, it realizes the infinite convergence of travel demand and supply curve, thus improving the spatio-temporal matching efficiency of resources and obtaining super profits. Ride-hailing also improves the peak capacity resilience of urban public transport services, providing up to 15-20% of the total capacity supplement.

Demand side: Tidal properties, dispersed and homogeneous demand, price sensitive, non-viscous.

Travel demand has typical tidal properties, and there is a matching demand for the time and space of transport capacity: the morning and evening peak (demand accounts for nearly 40%) and the demand during bad weather breaks out in a centralized way, and the demand exceeds the supply in stages, but the supply exceeds the demand in leisure time. There is a phased concentration of travel routes, and the flow of people flows in a single direction: the morning and evening peak flows tidally between the residential area and the city center.

Homogenized standard service, C end price sensitive without stickiness. Urban commuting demand is high and the standardization process is high, passengers are price sensitive, and whoever subsidizes more users will flow to which platform. Demand characteristics determine that there is less interaction between users, and comments on a single driver cannot generate positive externalities for other users. Peak users are essentially competitive relations, competing for limited supply side drivers, under the guidance of "call to the car" as the core goal, there is a natural tendency of multi-platform habitat.

Supply side: the supply chain is short, the space to provide added value is small, the platform lacks control over the transport capacity, and the driver also has a tendency to inhabit multiple platforms.

There is no employment relationship between the platform and the driver, which is regulated by rules. Moreover, due to the short supply chain of online car booking, the platform has weak capacity control: during holidays such as the Spring Festival and bad weather, drivers choose to go offline because they are afraid of bad weather, which leads to the loss of supply side capacity (drivers go offline).

At the same time, there is a bottleneck limit for the production capacity of a single driver, and the relationship between drivers on the platform is essentially competitive. The platform in peak demand has weak bargaining power for drivers, and drivers in off-season traffic demand also have the characteristics of multi-platform habitat, and the platform that can bring more single volume and better quality order delivery has short-term advantages.

1.3. To make money from scale and matching efficiency, the core of building barriers is to control transport capacity

The net about car essentially earns money from scale and matching efficiency, strong cross-side network effect, weak scale effect.

Disassemble the revenue of online car-hailing platforms:

Commission rate has ceiling, platform growth by doing GMV. There are two ways to increase revenue: GMV and commission rate, but the commission rate increase has an upper limit and a balance point, and if the commission rate is too high, there will be a loss of supply side capacity. Therefore, increasing GMV is the core path to increase revenue.

The essence of GMV growth is to compete scale and matching efficiency: GMV can be further divided into the growth of order number and customer unit price. Order number is an indicator of scale, and its growth depends on order volume and order fulfillment rate, testing the spatial distribution efficiency of order time and distance on demand side and supply side capacity.

The increase of customer unit price mainly comes from product upgrading and differentiation services: Customer unit price is affected by order distance, time, product grade and unit price. The order distance and time are certain, and the floating space of unit price is limited under the dual constraints of market competition and rental car pricing anchor. Providing differentiated services (such as private cars, etc.) has become the main path to increase the unit price of passengers.