Stable output of geothermal power generation, the next outlet of new energy?

The company said that by 2026, the revenue of the geoelectric segment will increase by 8 to 10 times, to $400 million to $500 million. I think we can do it. We should be able to take off the pigeon king's hat this time.

Considering the competitiveness of geothermal power plants alone, Jin gives a very simple Angle. Compare the amount of investment in photovoltaic and ground power for the same generation. Naturally, wind power should also be added. This part of the data and calculation is important, but my ability is still only rough.

Photovoltaic and land wind single GW investment is 4 billion yuan, this figure has always fluctuated, land wind decreased, photovoltaic slightly increased. Different data sources directly affect the calculation results.

National Energy Administration data: in 2021, the national wind power 652.6 billion KWH, up 40.5%. An average of 2,246 hours; Pv 325.9 billion degrees, up 25.1%. An average of 1,163 hours. I didn't go looking for separate land wind data, though it was easy.

This 2,246 hours includes sea breezes, but at the same time the new land breezes are used longer than the stock. Therefore, 2246 will be used as land wind data. Earth power adopts 8000 hours, and GW investment adopts 20.7 billion yuan of foot gold tycoon.

The annual power generation per GW is 8 billion KWH (I am not at all sure if this calculation is correct), and the investment is 20.7 billion yuan. The same annual power generation of 8 billion degrees, photovoltaic needs 80/1163=7GW*4 billion =28 billion yuan; Land wind needs 80/2246=3.6GW*4 billion = 14.5 billion yuan.

The conclusion is that the overseas geothermal power generation of Kaishan shares, the amount of investment required for the same power generation, has been comparable to domestic photovoltaic and land wind, and is stronger than photovoltaic than land wind.

Although the data is not precise and the calculation is rough, but because the requirements of the conclusion are more extensive, I personally think this conclusion can be used. Kaishan's overseas geopower has successfully entered a healthy commercial growth stage.

Foot gold adopts the international energy network, 14 A-share power plants 22 photovoltaic projects signed in the first half of the year, A single GW investment of 5.98 billion yuan.

Different sources of data, 21 years of national wind power average 1990 hours, photovoltaic 1065 hours; In the first half of the year, wind power was 1156 hours and photovoltaic 690 hours. Different data, especially the GW investment of 5.98 billion yuan of photovoltaic, the calculated gap is very large, but basically does not affect the above extensive enough conclusions.

Power plant operation is asset-heavy mode.

The next step is to borrow money, expand, reduce costs, and make more money. Kaishan is a small and medium-sized private enterprise, the principal is less expensive to borrow money, and it is quite difficult to do asset-heavy business. In the process of applying for abs financing in the United States, it is said that the funding problem will be solved directly through the future.

110.5MW in operation and 260MW under construction. Still wild assumption: the remaining four months of this year to add another 89.5MW grid (for ease of calculation, the actual can not be done, only four months left).

In 23 years, 200MW was in operation for 8,500 hours, and the annual power generation was 1.7 billion KWH (not sure if the power generation was calculated like this?). . Selling electricity 0.6 yuan, electricity net profit 0.3 yuan, about 500 million net profit. Air compressor, power generation equipment, EPC to 500 million net profit.

23 years 1 billion net profit, if 22 years 500 million net profit, performance growth of 100%. The actual 23 years will certainly not reach 1 billion net profit.

Because the company said 26 years of geopower to achieve 400-500 million dollars in revenue, of which 280 million power generation, equipment and EPC 120 million (830 million yuan). The latter net interest rate of 30% is $250 million, which is the management's outlook for 2026.

The subsequent annual operation of 100MW, even if the net profit of 250 million yuan, the result is a significant reduction in performance growth. That is, the high growth rate of 100% performance in 2023 cannot be sustained. High growth and sustainability, in order to have a high valuation, the lack of a discount.

If the operating performance is carefully calculated, the reduction of net profit in 23 years is conducive to the sustainability of the subsequent growth rate of performance, but the high growth rate of the year needs to be reduced.

In short, high growth is sustainable, and both are extremely difficult. Because the high growth rate has rapidly increased the profit base and increased the difficulty of follow-up sustainability.

The high growth rate lasting for many years is extremely rare in the market, which is the root cause of the collapse of growth stocks after the surge.

After high performance growth, investors hit the calculator to find the sustainability of high growth, so the market gives the current market dream rate. And this is more common in the manufacturing industry, in theory, capacity can be almost unlimited rapid expansion, or cyclical stock products.