Who is leading the way?

01 Global energy technology innovation trends

With the acceleration of global action against climate change, the current pattern of energy technology innovation is undergoing profound adjustment. This chapter will analyze the overall trend of global energy technology innovation from three perspectives: innovation input, innovation output and innovation strategy evolution.

▶ Innovation investment trend: The investment evolution presents four stages, and the investment is more inclined to renewable energy

Science and technology determine the future of energy, and science and technology create future energy. Energy technology innovation plays a decisive role in the global energy revolution and is the focus of scientific and technological innovation in various countries. From the perspective of the input evolution of global energy technology research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the past 40 years, it can be generally divided into four stages:

One is the long-term downsizing phase. Government RD&D spending in IEA member countries continued to decline between 1980 and 2000, with total spending in 2000 amounting to $11.1 billion, only 47% of the 1980 level.

Second, the recovery stage. After entering the 21st century, with the prominence of global energy and environmental problems, major countries generally increased the relevant investment, and the total government investment budget of IEA member countries ushered in rapid growth from 2001 to 2009, which had risen sharply to $24.6 billion in 2009.

Third, the stage of economic crisis. In the context of the global economic crisis, the priority of energy research and development investment in government spending has been reduced, and major investment countries such as the United States, Japan and Brazil have cut relevant spending, resulting in a downward trend in the total global budget between 2010 and 2016.

Fourth, zero carbon target stage. The Paris Agreement was formally implemented at the end of 2016, and the long-term goal of achieving net zero emissions in the second half of this century put forward by the agreement has made the development of low-carbon energy technologies an urgent need for countries around the world, so IEA member countries have generally increased their RD&D budgets for energy technologies since 2017.

The focus of global energy technology research and development investment is also undergoing profound changes, among which, more attention to clean energy technology, clean energy technology development is more inclined to renewable energy field are two prominent trends.

On the one hand, the share of RD&D for fossil fuel technologies in IEA member countries rose until the 1990s, then began to decline, to just 7% in 2020, down 13% from 1990, reflecting the increased priority given to clean energy technologies in the global energy research and development system.

On the other hand, the research and development trend in the field of clean energy technology has changed from an extreme focus on nuclear energy to the direction of coordinated development of nuclear energy and renewable energy. From the data point of view, in 1974, the proportion of nuclear energy RD&D in IEA countries was as high as 75%, and the proportion of renewable energy RD&D was only 3%, and by 2020, the proportion of nuclear energy has been greatly reduced to 21%. The share of renewable energy will be increased to 20% (including hydrogen).

Although the R&D investment of energy technology has shown an upward trend in recent years, the status of energy innovation in the global innovation pattern is still not high, and there is a large room for improvement. From the perspective of the overall R&D structure of major countries in the world, the proportion of energy technology R&D investment in the total national R&D investment is low, taking 2020 as an example, the United States is 1.2%, China is 2.2%, France is 3.7%, and Germany is 1.4%. The industry distribution of venture capital also confirms that the importance of energy innovation still needs to be greatly improved. To illustrate the situation of venture capital in China and the United States in 2020, it can be found that the energy industry venture capital received by China and the United States in that year is 438 million US dollars and 1.98 billion US dollars, respectively. They accounted for only 0.7% and 1.6% of the total venture capital received in the two countries, respectively, while the IT industry accounted for 40% and 41% respectively in the same year.

▶ Innovation output trend: Renewable energy innovation output is growing rapidly, and photovoltaic is its main source

The increase of investment in energy technology innovation also makes new energy scientific and technological achievements continue to emerge, which is and will continue to change the world energy pattern.

In terms of the output of scientific research papers, the number of papers published in the field of clean energy increased rapidly between 2001 and 2020, from 400,000 to 1.6 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, well ahead of the overall CAGR of 5%. Its share of global publications has also grown from 1% in 2001 to 5% in 2020. Further looking at the structure of paper output in the field of clean energy, it can be noted that the proportion of papers on renewable energy enabling technologies increased from 5% in 2001 to 11% in 2020, while the proportion of papers on nuclear energy research decreased significantly from 8% in 2001 to 1% in 2020, reflecting the increasing tendency of paper output toward renewable energy. This feature is consistent with investment trends in the clean energy sector.