Natural gas heavy truck and vehicle gas cylinder industry in-depth report

First, natural gas heavy truck: "economy + environmental protection" will continue to push up penetration

Regarding the upstream exploration and development of natural gas and midstream storage and transportation, we have analyzed in detail in the first to fourth reports of the series of oil and gas equipment. This report will focus on the downstream application of natural gas and explore investment opportunities. The downstream applications of natural gas are complicated, and the machinery industry is mainly related to natural gas heavy trucks/buses. The two most critical equipment of natural gas heavy trucks/buses are engines and on-board gas storage cylinders. The engines are mainly provided by Weichai Power (covered by China Merchants Automobile) and other main engine factories, while on-board gas cylinders are mainly provided by machinery companies such as Freite Loading, Saint Dyn and Auyang.

After 2018, due to the update demand, heavy truck sales tend to grow steadily. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached a historic high, and the natural tide of heavy trucks rose. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached 1.174 million units, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. The fluctuation of heavy truck sales is mainly affected by downstream infrastructure investment and real estate investment. From 2004 to 2017, heavy truck sales showed great fluctuations, with a year-on-year growth rate of -40% to 80%, mainly due to the obvious relationship with infrastructure investment and real estate development investment. In 2004, 2010 and other big years of infrastructure and real estate investment, heavy truck sales have ushered in more than 40% growth. From 2018 to 2019, the volatility slowed down, maintaining a low-speed growth of about 2.5%, and the correlation with infrastructure real estate investment weakened, mainly due to the stock renewal demand, that is, the replacement demand for heavy trucks under the background of high sales around 2010.

1, natural gas heavy truck: benefit from the industry renewal cycle, sales increased significantly

Heavy trucks can be divided into diesel heavy trucks and natural gas heavy trucks. There are many differences in the whole structure design of natural gas heavy truck and diesel heavy truck due to the difference in the use of fuel. Taking the engine as an example, the natural gas heavy truck adds steam regulators, pressure reducers and other parts to the fuel supply system, at the same time cancels the oil pump, replaces it with the ignition transmission device, adopts electronic control in the control system, and adds the corresponding sensors. In addition, there are also significant differences in exhaust systems, cooling waterways and combustion products.

After 2018, due to the update demand, heavy truck sales tend to grow steadily. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached a historic high, and the natural tide of heavy trucks rose. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached 1.174 million units, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. The fluctuation of heavy truck sales is mainly affected by downstream infrastructure investment and real estate investment. From 2004 to 2017, heavy truck sales showed great fluctuations, with a year-on-year growth rate of -40% to 80%, mainly due to the obvious relationship with infrastructure investment and real estate development investment. In 2004, 2010 and other big years of infrastructure and real estate investment, heavy truck sales have ushered in more than 40% growth. From 2018 to 2019, the volatility slowed down, maintaining a low-speed growth of about 2.5%, and the correlation with infrastructure real estate investment weakened, mainly due to the stock renewal demand, that is, the replacement demand for heavy trucks under the background of high sales around 2010.

Natural gas heavy trucks are naturally rising, and the sales growth rate in 2019 has increased significantly: on the one hand, due to the steady growth of heavy truck sales, on the other hand, its own penetration rate is also steadily increasing. According to the relevant national regulations, heavy trucks from July 1, 2019 will take the lead in implementing the country's six stage a emission standards, driven by the policy, from January to June 2019, the overall sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks have been soaring, and the overall sales have reached 85,000 units, far exceeding the whole year of 2018. At its peak in June, the monthly sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks was nearly 39,000 units. There are two reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase in natural gas heavy truck production in this period:

(1) With the introduction and implementation of the three-year action plan for winning the blue sky defense war in various provinces and cities, the phase-out and renewal policy of national three standard cargo trucks is accelerating, and the implementation of national six stage a emission standards is superimposed. Truck users in the second quarter of 2019, especially in the late second quarter (May and June), a large number of national five emission natural gas heavy trucks are purchased in advance. Greatly driving demand growth.

(2) Entering 2019, gas prices continue to fall and diesel prices rise, making the oil and gas price gap continue to widen (gas price base is about 4.2 -- 4.5 yuan/kg, diesel price is about 7.5 yuan/kg), although the price of gas vehicles is tens of thousands of yuan more expensive than diesel vehicles, but its use cost is low, if the current oil and gas price gap can be maintained, If it can ensure sufficient supply, it can make up the difference in the purchase cost of the car after one to two years of operation. From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate from 2011 to 2019 has zigzagged up, but it is still at a low level. In 2019, driven by policies, sales of natural gas heavy trucks accounted for 13% of the total sales of heavy trucks in the market.

2, LNG heavy truck is widely used, CNG is mostly used for micro card small card

The application forms of natural gas can be divided into CNG and LNG, and the sources are different, CNG is mostly transported in the form of pipeline gas, and LNG is mostly directly imported. CNG is stored in high pressure normal temperature cylinders and LNG is stored in medium pressure low temperature cylinders. The high pressure natural gas formed by compressed natural gas to 20MPa is called compressed natural gas (CNG), and CNG is stored in high-pressure normal temperature cylinders. The liquid natural gas formed by ultra-low temperature cryogenic cooling to -162 ° C is called liquefied natural gas (LNG), and LNG is stored in medium-pressure low-temperature cylinders.

Natural gas heavy trucks can be divided into LNG heavy trucks and CNG heavy trucks, the core devices are gas storage cylinders and engines, CNG storage tanks are slightly special, in the total mass of more than 18 tons of heavy trucks is still relatively rare, but in the city with micro and small cards more. In terms of working principle, there is no big difference between CNG heavy trucks and LNG heavy trucks, which are high-pressure gas that enters the engine after decompression and mixes with air and burns to supply energy to the car. However, the different energy attributes of LNG and CNG also make the two kinds of heavy trucks in the storage system, fuel supply system, heavy truck performance and supporting facilities there are certain differences:

1) From the point of view of the fuel storage system, the fuel storage cylinders and weights vary. Usually CNG heavy trucks are equipped with more than 10 cylinders (take HOWO340 HP CNG tractor as an example, the car is equipped with a total of 12 on-board cylinders: 8 140L vehicle gas cylinders and 4 80L vehicle gas cylinders), and LNG heavy trucks are generally equipped with less than 2 storage tanks (HOWO340 horsepower LNG tractor, for example, the vehicle is equipped with 2 450L LNG cylinders; At present, more and more LNG heavy trucks are equipped with a single capacity of more than 950L of gas cylinders). In contrast, the weight of a single LNG heavy truck gas cylinder is smaller and takes up less space: LNG gas cylinders are usually located behind the cab, and CNG gas cylinders are often filled with the rear of the cab, and the side of the frame needs to be placed gas cylinders; In terms of weight, the weight of a single vehicle LNG cylinder is about 600kg, while the weight of CNG cylinder is about 1000kg.

2) From the perspective of fuel supply system, LNG gas supply system is more complex. In the CNG heavy truck, the CNG in the cylinder enters the engine after the pressure of the high-pressure CNG is reduced to 1.5 atmospheres through the pressure reducing valve group; In the LNG heavy truck, the liquefied LNG first needs to be processed into CNG by the gasifier, and then through the decompression treatment, into the engine. Therefore, the fuel supply system of LNG heavy trucks is more complicated.

3) From the driving performance, the LNG heavy truck has a stronger endurance and a longer transportation radius. The total fuel capacity of CNG heavy truck is about 300 standard square meters, while the total fuel capacity of LNG heavy truck is about 1.5 times that of CNG heavy truck, about 450 standard square meters. Due to the limitation of cylinder loading capacity, the endurance capacity of CNG heavy truck is weak, and the transportation radius is limited at the same time, which is obviously restricted by the filling station.

LNG heavy truck has more obvious advantages and is also the main component of natural gas heavy truck. In contrast, LNG heavy truck transport half diameter is larger, more suitable for long-distance transport, with the acceleration of the construction of filling stations, the future development prospects are broader; Due to the limitation of small fuel loading capacity, the transportation radius of CNG heavy truck is limited, and more times need to be filled, so it is more suitable for short-distance transportation.

3, the northern filling station layout has been preliminarily completed, providing a solid guarantee for the improvement of permeability

It is a question of whether the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks and the number of filling stations are the chicken or the egg first. With the increase of the number of natural gas heavy trucks, the density of filling stations also gradually increases, which in turn promotes the continued increase of permeability: the analysis is made from three types of filling stations: CNG filling stations, LNG filling stations and L-CNG filling stations.

(1) CNG filling station: mainly serves taxis and some private cars, with a slow growth rate

CNG filling station is the earliest, largest and most complete filling station construction mode in China, mainly located in urban areas and surrounding areas. The CNG filling station can be divided into conventional station, mother station and sub-station: the conventional station is built in the place where the natural gas pipeline passes through, and the gas in the pipeline is desulphurized, dehydrated and compressed to 25Mpa before entering the conventional station, and then entering the gas selling machine to fill the car. The mother station is mostly built near the Chengmen station. After the gas desulfurization and dehydration in the natural gas pipeline, the pressure of 1-1.5Mpa enters the mother station. The mother station can gas the vehicle, and the natural gas is also transported to the sub-station by tank truck. Sub-stations are built at a distance from natural gas pipelines, usually within cities.

CNG filling station mainly includes natural gas pretreatment system, compression system, storage system, gas selling system and control system. 1) The natural gas pretreatment system includes desulfurization, dehydration and other processes of the natural gas entering the filling station. Desulfurization can prevent the corrosion of the equipment pipeline or the "hydrogen embrittling phenomenon" of the gas cylinder, and dehydration can prevent the ice blockage in the process of decompression, expansion and cooling of CNG; 2) The compression system is mainly composed of intake buffer tank, compressor host, lubrication system, cooling system, etc. 3) The storage of the filling station is usually divided into high pressure, medium pressure and low pressure bottle groups, which are automatically controlled by the control panel; 4) The gas selling system is composed of mass flowmeter, computer-controlled gas selling device and compressed natural gas gas circuit system, which is used to add fuel to CNG vehicles.

CNG filling stations are mature, the growth rate is slowing down, mainly serving taxis and some private cars. In 1988, China began to introduce the full set of CNG filling stations, refit automobile parts and high-pressure gas cylinders, and build CNG filling stations. In addition to some important components, the manufacturing technology and process of domestic CNG filling station equipment have been mature. CNG filling stations mainly serve taxis and some private cars, the technology is relatively simple, developed earlier in China, a large number, the current development is mature, the growth rate is slowing down. According to statistics, at the end of 2018, the number of CNG filling stations in China was 5,600, and the number of CNG filling stations in the future will continue to maintain an annual growth rate of 5%-10%.

(2) LNG filling station: mainly serves heavy trucks, and the northern layout is relatively perfect

LNG refueling station is a refueling station for LNG vehicles, which is mainly distributed in areas rich in LNG resources. LNG filling station mainly consists of LNG tank truck, LNG storage tank, LNG cryogenic pump, gas filling machine, pressure regulator and other systems, which can be divided into conventional station and skid-mounted station. The conventional station is built at a fixed location, and the LNG is stored in the storage tank through the gas unloading device, and the gas is added by the gas filler. The equipment related to the filling station is installed on the skid body or the car, which is small in scale and easy to transport.

The LNG filling station mainly includes four steps: unloading, pressure regulation, gas filling and pressure relief. 1) Unloading refers to the transfer of LNG in the tank or tank to the storage tank of the LNG filling station, there are three ways: supercharger unloading, submerged cryogenic pump unloading, supercharger and cryogenic pump unloading; 2) After the LNG is transported to the storage tank, the pressure is increased through the booster or the low-temperature circulation of the pump to obtain a certain pressure of saturated gas; 3) The air filler transmits gas to the vehicle cylinder through single or double lines; 4) When the LNG gasification in the tank causes the system pressure to rise, the BOG recovery system or safety valve will be opened to reduce the gas pressure.

China's LNG refueling station equipment manufacturing started late, but with the increasing demand for natural gas and consumption levels in China, the future number and proportion of LNG refueling stations are expected to increase, and will also drive the proportion of LNG heavy trucks to increase. The main reasons are as follows: 1) The downstream LNG vehicle has a broader application prospect. Taking heavy truck as an example, the transport radius of LNG heavy truck is larger, more suitable for long-distance transport, in addition, the gas filling speed is fast, and the cylinder loading efficiency is high. 2) The LNG filling station has strong filling capacity, is not affected by the gas supply network, is easy to locate, and has low investment cost and operating cost; 3) In the next few years, the increase of CNG pipeline gas is limited, and LNG imports are expected to grow rapidly. According to statistics, at the end of 2018, the number of LNG filling stations in China is 3,400, and with the advancement of natural gas vehicles, the number of LNG filling stations will continue to maintain an annual growth rate of 10%-20% in the future.

The layout of LNG filling stations in the north is relatively perfect. From the perspective of national distribution, China's LNG refueling stations are concentrated in the provinces with large LNG consumption and the provinces with large LNG output such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi. In 2016, the number of LNG refueling stations in the top ten provinces with LNG consumption is 1443, accounting for 58.66%, which coincides with the downstream consumption area. In 2016, the top three provinces in terms of the number of LNG filling stations were Shandong (295), Hebei (240) and Xinjiang (198), respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.06%, 6.33% and 8%, of which Shandong region developed more rapidly. Main reasons: Shandong LNG vehicle market has developed rapidly. As of October 2016, the number of LNG vehicles in Shandong has reached 22,000, accounting for 10.27%, ranking first in the country. Relying on the development of Shandong logistics and transportation industry, the downstream vehicle demand is large, and the growth rate of LNG filling stations in the province has maintained a high growth. At present, the construction of LNG filling stations in Shandong Province is at the forefront of the domestic level in terms of policy formulation, industry norms, safety management and development speed, and the overall consumption of LNG is also at the forefront of the country, which has laid a good foundation for the development of LNG filling stations.