Natural gas heavy truck and vehicle gas cylinder industry in-depth report

First, natural gas heavy truck: "economy + environmental protection" will continue to push up penetration

Regarding the upstream exploration and development of natural gas and midstream storage and transportation, we have analyzed in detail in the first to fourth reports of the series of oil and gas equipment. This report will focus on the downstream application of natural gas and explore investment opportunities. The downstream applications of natural gas are complicated, and the machinery industry is mainly related to natural gas heavy trucks/buses. The two most critical equipment of natural gas heavy trucks/buses are engines and on-board gas storage cylinders. The engines are mainly provided by Weichai Power (covered by China Merchants Automobile) and other main engine factories, while on-board gas cylinders are mainly provided by machinery companies such as Freite Loading, Saint Dyn and Auyang.

After 2018, due to the update demand, heavy truck sales tend to grow steadily. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached a historic high, and the natural tide of heavy trucks rose. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached 1.174 million units, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. The fluctuation of heavy truck sales is mainly affected by downstream infrastructure investment and real estate investment. From 2004 to 2017, heavy truck sales showed great fluctuations, with a year-on-year growth rate of -40% to 80%, mainly due to the obvious relationship with infrastructure investment and real estate development investment. In 2004, 2010 and other big years of infrastructure and real estate investment, heavy truck sales have ushered in more than 40% growth. From 2018 to 2019, the volatility slowed down, maintaining a low-speed growth of about 2.5%, and the correlation with infrastructure real estate investment weakened, mainly due to the stock renewal demand, that is, the replacement demand for heavy trucks under the background of high sales around 2010.

1, natural gas heavy truck: benefit from the industry renewal cycle, sales increased significantly

Heavy trucks can be divided into diesel heavy trucks and natural gas heavy trucks. There are many differences in the whole structure design of natural gas heavy truck and diesel heavy truck due to the difference in the use of fuel. Taking the engine as an example, the natural gas heavy truck adds steam regulators, pressure reducers and other parts to the fuel supply system, at the same time cancels the oil pump, replaces it with the ignition transmission device, adopts electronic control in the control system, and adds the corresponding sensors. In addition, there are also significant differences in exhaust systems, cooling waterways and combustion products.

After 2018, due to the update demand, heavy truck sales tend to grow steadily. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached a historic high, and the natural tide of heavy trucks rose. In 2019, heavy truck sales reached 1.174 million units, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. The fluctuation of heavy truck sales is mainly affected by downstream infrastructure investment and real estate investment. From 2004 to 2017, heavy truck sales showed great fluctuations, with a year-on-year growth rate of -40% to 80%, mainly due to the obvious relationship with infrastructure investment and real estate development investment. In 2004, 2010 and other big years of infrastructure and real estate investment, heavy truck sales have ushered in more than 40% growth. From 2018 to 2019, the volatility slowed down, maintaining a low-speed growth of about 2.5%, and the correlation with infrastructure real estate investment weakened, mainly due to the stock renewal demand, that is, the replacement demand for heavy trucks under the background of high sales around 2010.

Natural gas heavy trucks are naturally rising, and the sales growth rate in 2019 has increased significantly: on the one hand, due to the steady growth of heavy truck sales, on the other hand, its own penetration rate is also steadily increasing. According to the relevant national regulations, heavy trucks from July 1, 2019 will take the lead in implementing the country's six stage a emission standards, driven by the policy, from January to June 2019, the overall sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks have been soaring, and the overall sales have reached 85,000 units, far exceeding the whole year of 2018. At its peak in June, the monthly sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks was nearly 39,000 units. There are two reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase in natural gas heavy truck production in this period:

(1) With the introduction and implementation of the three-year action plan for winning the blue sky defense war in various provinces and cities, the phase-out and renewal policy of national three standard cargo trucks is accelerating, and the implementation of national six stage a emission standards is superimposed. Truck users in the second quarter of 2019, especially in the late second quarter (May and June), a large number of national five emission natural gas heavy trucks are purchased in advance. Greatly driving demand growth.