Tire industry research framework and investment perspective

Larger tires are more technical. The proportion of large-size tires in the global tire market shows a significant growth trend, in the supporting market, the market share of more than 17 inches in the tire market is increasing step by step, while the market share of less than 16 inches is gradually declining. Large-size tires are a strong proof of the strength of tire companies, more and more tire companies are accelerating the expansion of this field, for tire manufacturers, large-size tires mean greater manufacturing difficulty and higher technical requirements, which will also bring higher prices and profits. In the Chinese market, large-size tires have great potential for development in the future, and the head tire companies are expected to grab a larger market share in this field.

Sea freight changes: Sea freight rates have now fallen to a reasonable level

Since the beginning of this year, the tense situation of shipping continues to ease, the current sea freight has entered the rapid downward channel, the sea freight from Asia to the East of the United States, the West of the United States, and the European route has fallen by 64%, 80%, 84% since the beginning of the year, Europe and the West of the United States route has basically reached or close to the level before the current round of sea freight rise.

However, different from the market's previous expectations, the rapid decline of sea freight did not bring too much substantive benefits to the tire company, but we saw that the tire company's performance in the third quarter was lower than expected. The reason is that the market once thought that the decline in sea freight is good for tire companies to increase overseas orders, but in fact, the rapid decline in sea freight this round reflects the economic downturn, and the increase in dealer inventory pressure brought about by large-scale unloading of ships, so tire companies' overseas orders are actually more negative.

Tire industry chain key company analysis

Yanggu Huatai: rubber auxiliaries leading enterprises

The company is a leading enterprise in China's rubber auxiliaries industry, with an existing vulcanization auxiliaries system capacity of 100,000 tons, processing auxiliaries system capacity of 55,000 tons, protection system capacity of 25,000 tons, and rubber masterbatch system capacity of 20,000 tons. A new type of antioxidant is being developed, and a demonstration line of tonnage pilot production is planned to be completed by the end of 2023; Invest 65,000 tons of silane coupling agent, is expected to put into production in 2024, invest 40,000 tons of trichlorosilane, improve the industrial chain layout; Research and development of lithium new energy related additives, and plan to complete the pilot test of vinylene carbonate (VC) and fluorovinyl carbonate (FEC) by the end of 2022; Research and development of new varieties in the field of large health, and plan to complete the lipoic acid pilot study by the end of 2022.

Black Cat shares: carbon black leading enterprises

The company is currently the leading enterprise with the largest carbon black production capacity in China. At present, the capacity of carbon black 1.1 million tons/year, special carbon black 130,000 tons/year, precipitated white carbon black 60,000 tons/year, gas phase white carbon black 2,000 tons/year, coal tar deep processing capacity 950,000 tons/year and exhaust generator unit installed capacity 150MW. We judge that the overall supply and demand in the future are still tight, and the industry is expected to continue to maintain a high prosperity. On the supply side, the carbon black industry is a highly polluting and energy-consuming industry. With the improvement of environmental protection requirements and the impact of dual-control energy consumption policies, the new supply continues to maintain a low growth rate. Moreover, due to the impact of dual-control energy consumption policies, the approval progress of new projects may also be extended, and the supply is expected to tighten in the future. On the demand side, with the growth of demand in the downstream tire market and the recovery of the epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to drive domestic exports to maintain a high level.

Senkirin: Tire leader, focusing on overseas replacement market

The company has two production bases in Qingdao and Thailand, of which the maximum production capacity of Qingdao production base can reach 14 million semi-steel tires; The first phase of the Thai factory was completed in 2015, with a design capacity of 10 million semi-steel tires; The second phase of the Thailand plant will be completed at the end of 2021, with a design capacity of 6 million semi-steel tires and 2 million full-steel tires, and it is expected to achieve full production in the second quarter of 2023. The company is preparing to build a plant in Spain and a plant in Morocco, with a design capacity of 12 million /6 million, respectively, which is expected to be gradually completed and put into operation in 2024.

Cylun Tire: tire leading enterprises, mainly replacement market