Chinese enterprises from big to strong, the domestic forward market size will exceed 500 billion yuan

First, industry introduction: the foundation of the development of the automobile industry

As an important part of the automobile, the tire is the foundation of the development of the automobile industry. As an important supporting industry of the automobile industry, the tire industry is closely related to the economic development of China. In recent years, China's tire industry has achieved rapid growth, since 2006 has been firmly ranked in the world's largest tire producer and rubber consumer, tire production accounts for about a quarter of the world's total output. With the continuous development of China's transportation, automotive machinery and other industries, the status of the tire industry in the national economy is expected to continue to improve.

(1) Classification of automobile tires

According to the "China's automotive tire industry development trend analysis and future prospects forecast Report (2023-2030)" released by the research Report network, it is divided into bias tires and radial tires according to structural design. Bias tire has the characteristics of high tread and side strength, but the side stiffness is large, the comfort is poor, and the movement and friction between the cord layers are large at high speed, so it is not suitable for high-speed driving. Radial tires were first invented by Michelin company in 1946, compared with ordinary bias tires, radial tires have low rolling resistance, good adhesion, large elasticity, strong cushioning force, large bearing capacity, wear resistance and puncture resistance, but the manufacturing technology is relatively complex and the cost is high. According to the different body, radial tires can be further divided into full steel and half steel. All-steel radial tire refers to the tire whose body and belt layer are all made of steel cord (only one layer of steel cord layer); Semi-steel radial tire refers to the tire with fiber material for the body and steel cord for the belting layer (only 2-3 layers of fiber cord).

According to whether there is an inner tube, it is divided into tubeless tires and tubeless tires (also known as atomic tires or vacuum tires). At present, tubeless tires have been widely used. This combination of tires and steel wheels that directly rely on the rim to seal the tire pressure eliminates the hidden danger of blowout, makes driving safer, reduces weight, and saves fuel.

According to the use, it is divided into automobile tires (including cars and light load (light truck) tires, heavy tires), construction machinery tires, agricultural tires, industrial vehicle tires, power tires, motorcycle tires and aviation tires.

(2) The industrial chain

Upstream: composed of chemicals with strong periodicities, price fluctuations directly affect tire profitability. The upstream includes natural rubber, synthetic rubber, steel cord, carbon black and synthetic fiber. At present, rubber accounts for about 30-50% of the production cost in the raw material cost composition of tire products, so the impact of natural rubber and synthetic rubber on the cost of tires is more prominent in all kinds of raw materials.

Midstream: Capacity cycle determines long-term price, inventory cycle affects short-term price. Tire is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry, the production capacity construction cycle is long, from investment to production capacity is usually more than 5 years, so there will be no significant change in tire supply in a short time; The effect of the inventory cycle is on the one hand to guide demand, and on the other hand to catalyze short-term price movements due to short-term inventory overhang caused by, for example, winter power rationing in the north.

Downstream: the automotive field accounts for the highest proportion, and the production and sales volume and the ownership determine the prosperity of the demand side. Downstream includes passenger cars, trucks, construction machinery vehicles, agricultural and forestry machinery vehicles, industrial vehicles, aircraft, special vehicles and other applications. Among them, the automotive field has the highest proportion of tires, and its industry prosperity will affect the scale growth of tire manufacturing in the middle reaches.

Second, demand: the proportion of semi-steel is high, and the total amount of replacement market is large

The downstream tire covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, engineering machinery and other fields, the main area is still the passenger car field, in recent years, the passenger tire (semi-steel radial tire) sales accounted for nearly 90%, so the tire industry development and the automotive industry is highly related. The automobile industry is more obviously affected by the macroeconomic and downstream demand boom cycle, but the special consumption attributes of tire products make the tire industry boom independent of the automobile industry, different from the attributes of automobile optional consumer goods, tire as a kind of essential consumer goods, its demand rigidity is greater than the automobile industry. As one of the essential parts of the car, the output of tires depends on the output and ownership of the car. In the early stage of development, car ownership is less, and tire demand is mainly affected by automobile production; With the gradual increase in ownership, tire replacement demand exceeds supporting demand to become the main factor affecting the tire industry.