Overview of the development of China's natural gas industry under the background of carbon neutrality

1.2.2 Analysis of natural gas supply situation

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, both domestic and imported natural gas played an important role in the stable supply of natural gas in China. In terms of production, China's natural gas exploration and development has made significant progress, with natural gas production maintaining an average annual growth of more than 100×108 m3 and reaching 1 925×108 m3 (coal-to-gas) in 2020. Among them, shale gas production exceeds 200×108 m3, and the proportion of production rises from 3.5% in 2015 to 10.4% in 2020, accounting for an increase year by year. In terms of imported gas, China's natural gas imports in 2020 are about 1 408×108 m3, accounting for 43% of China's natural gas consumption. Pipeline gas imports mainly come from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, Russia, about 476×108 m3; LNG imports mainly come from Australia, Qatar and other countries, about 932×108 m3.

In the case of China's high dependence on foreign natural gas, how to effectively meet the growth of China's natural gas demand in the coming period of time is a research focus of many scholars. Lu Jialiang et al. [14] built an integrated natural gas production forecasting system by using grey - Hubbert, neural network - Hubbert and production composition methods to forecast China's natural gas production. It is estimated that China's natural gas production in 2025 will range from 2 100×108 to 2 450×108 m3. Production in 2050 is between 3 300×108 and 4 100×108 m3, of which shale gas production is expected to exceed 1 000×108 m3 in 2050. Wang Jianliang et al. [15] selected the multi-cycle generalized Weng model to forecast China's natural gas production by scenario, and believed that under the premise of continuously increasing investment in exploration and technology research and development, China's natural gas production in 2025 is expected to exceed 2 100×108 m3, with peak production ranging from 3 982×108 to 4 663×108 m3. The peak will occur between 2055 and 2060, with shale gas production having the greatest potential for growth. From the perspective of technology and resource potential, Zou Caineng et al. [16] comprehensively analyzed that under the current technical conditions, China's shale gas production is expected to reach 300×108 m3 in 2025, which is a new force for the growth of natural gas production. Dai Jinxing et al. [17] systematically summarized the amount and proved degree of natural gas resources in China, the growth characteristics of annual natural gas production and the growth law of remaining recoverable natural gas reserves, and made corresponding comparisons with the world's major gas producing countries, and concluded that China's annual gas production could reach 2 500×108 m3 in 2025. Jia Ailin et al. [18], on the basis of evaluating the production potential of conventional and unconventional natural gas exploration and storage expansion and development, believe that China's natural gas production is expected to reach 2 270×108 m3 in 2025. According to BP's World Energy Outlook (2020 Edition) [11], China's natural gas production will grow rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and it is expected that the output will be 2 410×108 m3 in 2025, and the output will peak around 2045, with the peak output higher than 3 000×108 m3.

At present, China has signed long-term natural gas import contracts (including pipeline gas and LNG) of about 1 600×108 m3[19]. Among them, the LNG contract execution volume is about 800×108 m3, and the pipeline gas is about 800×108 m3[3]. In terms of pipeline gas, the growth potential of natural gas imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Myanmar is limited, and the increase in imports is mainly from Russia. With the completion and operation of the China-Russia East Route natural gas pipeline during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, its import volume is expected to reach the designed gas transmission capacity of 380×108 m3/a in 2025, and the increase is expected to be about 300×108 m3. Zhou Shuhui et al. [5] believe that if the demand of 4,300 ×108 ~ 4,500 ×108 m3 is estimated, China's natural gas supply gap will be about 400×108 m3 by 2025, which will need to be supplemented by LNG spot or new contract resources. The "2020 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" [20] released by the China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute pointed out that the rapid growth of LNG receiving capacity will drive a substantial increase in LNG imports, and the domestic natural gas supply will be relatively loose during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

Ma Li et al. [21] and Shan Weiguo et al. [22] pointed out that as fewer natural gas liquefaction projects passed the Final Investment Decision (FID) from 2015 to 2018, the spot price of LNG in Asia will fluctuate upward and rise to a high point before 2024. It turns downward in 2025. According to the research of Bai Hua et al. [23], during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the global natural gas market will gradually tighten, there will be a short supply in 2023-2025, and the price will bottom out and rise in 2021, but the average price during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be slightly lower than the "13th Five-Year Plan". The "Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report 2020" [20] pointed out that in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average spot price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 6.4 US dollars /mmBtu (1 mmBtu=1 055 MJ), which was basically the same as that in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.