Overview of the development of China's natural gas industry under the background of carbon neutrality

In the longer term, it will be easier to meet domestic gas demand in a "carbon neutral" context. Domestic natural gas production is expected to peak later than 2050, while consumption may peak around 2035. After consumption peaks, China's need for imported natural gas will gradually diminish. From the perspective of the international market, according to the business-as-usual scenario of BP's World Energy Outlook (2020 Edition), global natural gas production has the resource potential to exceed 5×1012 m3 in 2040, while with the acceleration of the global low-carbon transition, the global natural gas demand is expected to be difficult to exceed 4.7×1012 m3[11].

The above research shows that compared with other low carbon or no carbon energy, China's natural gas large-scale stable supply of the most solid foundation, is not only to replace coal, to achieve "low carbon" the most realistic choice, but also renewable energy "life partner", will play a key role in the realization of "carbon neutral" goal. From the perspective of the path, the main role of natural gas before 2030 is to reduce carbon and help China reach its peak as soon as possible, and then with the rapid increase in the proportion of renewable energy, natural gas will gradually integrate with renewable energy and become a beneficial supplement to renewable energy. From a quantitative point of view, under the goal of "carbon neutrality", China's natural gas consumption has a high probability of maintaining rapid growth in the next 10 years, and its peak is expected to appear around 2035, with a high probability of peak consumption ranging from 5 500×108 to 6 000×108 m3.

2. Natural gas industry upgrading and development path

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's energy supply side reform continued to advance, the development of natural gas industry accelerated, its status in the primary energy consumption structure continued to rise, and gradually formed a production, supply, storage and marketing system with Chinese characteristics. In the context of "carbon neutrality", the construction of China's production, supply, storage and marketing system will continue to advance to ensure the safe, efficient and sustainable supply of domestic natural gas.

We will accelerate the construction of natural gas infrastructure

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural gas long-distance pipeline increased by 1.9×104 km to 8.3×104 km, and has initially formed "four (import) channels" and "three vertical and three horizontal" pipe network system; LNG receiving capacity doubled to nearly 9 000×104 t; The working volume of underground gas storage increased by 92×108 m3 to 147×108 m3, but it only accounted for 4.5% of China's natural gas consumption, which was far lower than the world average level. Although China's infrastructure construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period has achieved remarkable results, there are still many areas that need to be strengthened. The "China Natural Gas High-quality Development Report (2020)" issued by the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of The State Council pointed out that China's natural gas pipeline construction is relatively lagging behind, the efficiency of emergency reserve capacity construction is relatively low, and the capacity of gas storage and peak regulation needs to be strengthened. Sun Zhe [24] believes that the legal norms, incentive measures, supervision mechanism and main responsibilities of natural gas peaking reserve in China are not yet complete. Zhou Mingliang [25] pointed out that the construction of natural gas strategic reserves is imminent, and it is necessary to speed up the formulation of laws and regulations on natural gas strategic reserves, solve the problem of profitability of gas storage facilities, encourage the entry of diversified capital, and solve the problem of natural gas entry and exit of gas storage facilities.

It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the construction of China's natural gas infrastructure will be promoted in an orderly manner. According to the Medium and Long Term Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Plan, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will promote the construction of China-Russia natural gas pipelines such as the Eastern Route, the fourth West-East gas pipeline, the fifth West-east gas pipeline, and the second line of Sichuan-East gas transmission, and strengthen infrastructure connectivity, focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Northeast China, and Hainan. We will promote the development of regional and branch pipe networks. In addition, if the Sino-Russian Far East gas pipeline and Sino-Russian Middle Route gas pipeline negotiations go smoothly, construction is expected to start during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [26]. It is expected that at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's natural gas pipelines will form a "four (import) channels" and "five vertical and five horizontal" trunk pipe network pattern [27]. According to the review of new construction, expansion and planning projects, it is expected that the designed receiving capacity of domestic LNG receiving stations will reach 1.9×108 t/a in 2025 [20].