Analysis of the prospect of natural gas power generation under the background of "carbon neutrality"

1. Prospect analysis of natural gas power generation in the context of "carbon neutrality"

In order for China to achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality", the proportion of renewable energy in the energy supply side should not be less than 80%[3]. The high proportion of renewable power system means a huge demand for peak regulation, and natural gas power generation has been widely concerned because of its advantages in peak regulation and frequency regulation.

Cogeneration and peaking are two main forms of natural gas power generation. Compared with gas-electric peaking, natural gas cogeneration has obvious economic advantages, but it loses some flexibility. Yin Jianping et al. [43] compared and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of cogeneration and gas-electric peaking, and believed that gas-electric peaking should be taken as the main development direction of natural gas power generation. The Global Energy Internet Development and Cooperation Organization released the Research Report on China's Carbon Neutrality before 2060 [13], pointing out that the main role of gas and electricity in China's power system is peak regulation, and the total installed capacity of gas and electricity is expected to be 1.85×108 kW in 2030 and 3.3×108 kW in 2050, respectively. The proportion in the power system is 4.9% and 4.4%, respectively.

Shan Tongwen [44], Chen Rui et al. [45] and Zhu Xingshan et al. [46] all believe that natural gas power generation has obvious advantages over coal power in terms of environmental protection and flexibility, and that the integration of natural gas power generation and renewable energy will be the best path for China's energy transformation. However, it is also pointed out that natural gas power generation still faces problems such as unclear policy and positioning, environmental protection and peak load balancing value can not be fully manifested, and core technology is missing. Hong Tao [1] believes that although natural gas power generation faces the challenge of energy storage, it is still the best backup power supply in the power industry. Chen Zongfa [47] believes that under the background of "dual-carbon" goal and "building a new power system with new energy as the main body", gas-fired power generation faces both challenges and opportunities.

Based on the above research, the author believes that under the goal of "carbon neutrality", the development of natural gas power generation, especially the development of natural gas power peaking, needs full attention. By the end of 2020, China's total installed gas power capacity is about 1×108 kW, accounting for about 4.5% of the total installed power generation capacity, far lower than the average level of developed countries. From the perspective of "carbon peak", China's electricity demand will continue to increase rapidly, and it is difficult to rely only on renewable energy generation to meet the growth of China's electricity demand in the next ten years. Replacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon natural gas is the best choice to achieve the peak of the power industry as soon as possible. From the perspective of power security, with the continuous increase of the installed proportion of renewable energy, the moment of inertia of the power system will continue to decrease, and the challenge of safe and stable operation of the power system will become more severe [48], and the demand for peak regulation and frequency modulation will become more urgent. However, from the current technology and basic conditions, chemical energy storage and hydrogen energy are difficult to undertake the heavy task of maintaining power grid security in the short term: the most advantageous large-scale energy storage technology - chemical energy storage, and the operation scale is extremely low. By the end of 2020, the scale of domestic chemical energy storage is less than 3.5GW, while hydrogen energy is still in the initial stage, and the "Road to Hydrogen energy Parity" issued by the China Hydrogen energy and fuel cell Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance pointed out that hydrogen energy is expected to become a competitive low-carbon solution by 2030. It is expected that gas power will be the most effective means to meet the demand of peak and frequency regulation and maintain the security of power grid in the next ten years. In addition, in terms of policy, a number of ministries and commissions issued a special deployment, requiring strict control of coal power projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, deepening the reform of the power system, and promoting natural gas power generation.

2 Related Suggestions

2.1 High awareness of the important role of natural gas in achieving the goal of "carbon neutrality"

Promoting gas instead of coal is not only a weapon to control environmental pollution, but also the only effective choice to achieve "carbon peak" as soon as possible in the short term, but also the most effective means to absorb a high proportion of renewable energy under the current technical conditions. This should be fully recognized, vigorously publicized, and clearly reflected in national or regional energy planning.