Nitrogen fertilizer export warming caused the off-season is not weak

Industry view:

The decline in oil prices led to a decline in the prices of some chemicals, but the trend of the recovery of the chemical industry remained unchanged. In October, affected by the macro economy and the geopolitical situation, international crude oil prices fell, driving the price of polyester, polyolefin and other chemicals to fall. Overall, in October, chemicals fell more and rose less, spandex, caustic soda and other a small number of product prices rose, most chemical prices showed a downward trend. Since June this year, urea prices have risen from 2,000 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 25%. At present, the profit of urea enterprises is better, and the gross profit per ton is about 500 yuan. The main reason for this is the surge in exports due to high overseas prices. At present, domestic urea enterprises are also increasing production, and supply is expected to increase in December, and prices can be stable or slightly down. On the supply side, new production capacity of polyester filament, urea, ethylene oxide, propylene, polypropylene pellets and butadiene was put into production in October. On the demand side, domestic demand has stabilized and picked up, but external demand has not yet shown signs of improvement. On the whole, although the price of chemicals has fluctuated significantly by the oscillation of oil prices, the tone of slow recovery of the chemical industry has remained unchanged.

Data analysis:

Oil refining sector boom down, crude oil prices fell. October Brent crude was at $89.1 a barrel, down 3.6%; WTI crude was trading at $85.8 per barrel, down 3.7%.

The market price of chemical fiber fell, the price of polyester filament POY, DTY, FDY and nylon showed a downward trend, and the price of spandex rose slightly.

In October, the spot price of PX in China's main port was 1,041 US dollars/ton, down 7.2%; The market price of PTA in East China is 5926 yuan/ton, down by 5.0%; The price of polyester filament POY in East China is 7685 yuan/ton, down 3.6%; The DTY price of polyester filament in East China is 8971 yuan/ton, down 3.8%; The price of polyester filament FDY in East China is 8299 yuan/ton, down 2.9%. The mainstream price of nylon slice in East China market was 13,726 yuan/ton, down 3.6%; The price of spandex 40D is 32,168 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2%.

Profit situation of polyester industry chain, polyester filament POY basically achieved break-even in October; Polyester filament DTY was flat with last month's profit, and polyester FDY profit space increased.

The fertilizer market entered the off-season, the export price of nitrogen fertilizer improved somewhat, the narrow range of phosphate fertilizer fell, the price of potash fertilizer was unchanged from last month, and the narrow range of pesticides fell.

Phosphorus fertilizer decreased by 1.0% in October; Potash prices were unchanged from last month; For pesticides, glyphosate fell by 4.9%.

In the chlor-alkali industry, the PVC vinyl method fell by 5.0% in October; PVC calcium carbide method fell 5.4%; In terms of gross profit, the losses of PVC vinyl method and PVC calcium carbide method have further expanded this month. Heavy soda ash fell 0.2%, caustic soda rose 6.2%.

Ethylene industry chain, in October, the spot price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 884 US dollars/ton, up 4.0%; The spot price of polyethylene was $925 / ton, down 3.9%; The market price of styrene in East China was 8734 yuan/ton, down 7.1%; The spot price of ethylene oxide was 6800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9%.

In terms of price spread, compared with last month, the price spread of polyethylene-ethylene and styrene-ethylene has been reduced, and the profit space has been narrowed. The ethylene oxide - ethylene spread is basically unchanged.

Propylene industry chain, in October, the Chinese spot price of propylene was 952 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3%; Polypropylene futures closed at 7561 yuan/ton, down 4.0%; The mainstream price of acrylonitrile in Shandong region was 9779 yuan/ton, up 3.6%; The mainstream price of propylene oxide in East China market is 9504 yuan/ton, down 2.7%. In terms of price spread, the profit space of polypropylene - propylene and propylene oxide this month narrowed compared with last month, and the profit space of acrylonitrile - propylene further increased.

C4 industry chain, in October, butadiene spot price in China was $1045 / ton, an increase of 4.2%; The spot price of butadiene rubber was 12516 yuan/ton, down 4.7%; The mainstream price of SBS market is 4555 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; ABS spot price was 10,490 yuan/ton, down 4.2%. In terms of price spreads, the price spreads of butadiene rubber, SBS butadiene and ABS-butadiene have declined this month, and the profit space has been further narrowed.