Look for investment opportunities from the perspective of chemical industry trends

Combined with the previous analysis, the supply level of the soda ash industry: under the background of "double carbon" and environmental protection stricter policies, the backward production capacity of the soda ash industry is expected to gradually withdraw, and the new production capacity may be dominated by natural alkali method. Demand level: Benefiting from the rapid increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic, the demand for soda ash is expected to rise steadily. Considering that the current soda ash industry basically presents a tight balance between supply and demand, in the context of "new energy +", the fundamentals of the soda ash industry will be good for a long time, and the soda ash price is expected to maintain a high boom.

1.3. The development of new energy vehicles is in full swing, focusing on investment opportunities in tire and iron phosphate sectors

1.3.1 Tires: New energy track corners overtaking, there are major opportunities for national tire enterprises

1) From the perspective of tire industry. Nowadays, the world's tire giant enterprises are often born in the automobile kingdom, and the successful rise of tire enterprises is usually closely related to the level of the domestic automobile industry. We believe that the rise of national tire enterprises is also closely related to the development of the local automobile industry. Among them: in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, we believe that with the gradual increase in the importance of domestic cars on product quality and brand power and the rapid development of SUV models, including Geely, the Great Wall and Red Flag and other independent brands are expected to gradually rise, creating opportunities for the development of domestic tire enterprises. In the field of new energy vehicles, we believe that compared with overseas car companies, domestic car companies have no substitute for foreign companies in the field of new energy, which also provides opportunities for the rise of independent brand cars to overtake corners. In addition, the new energy car has higher requirements for cost control, which brings opportunities for domestic tire companies with cost-effective advantages to cooperate with foreign car companies such as Japan and Europe, and high-quality national tire companies are expected to leverage new energy car market opportunities to cut into high-end car brands.

2) From the perspective of the enterprise itself. We believe that the excellent national tire enterprises in the technical level, capacity scale, brand strength has been no worse than overseas powers, excellent national tire enterprises have the basis for rise.

3) From the perspective of objective data of the industry. We analyze from the three levels of sales growth, sales proportion and market position of comparable companies, and find that the current domestic high-quality tire companies are accelerating the momentum of development, and the income level has been comparable to overseas second-tier companies such as Yokohama and Hankook, so we believe that national tire companies have shown signs of rising.

4) From the perspective of market capitalization. Globally, the market value of tire industry giants Bridgestone and Michelin has remained above 100 billion yuan for a long time, while the market value of domestic listed tire companies is generally small, we believe that with the gradual rise of national tires, there is huge room for market value improvement. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

1.3.2 Iron phosphate: Benefiting from the demand for new energy vehicles, iron phosphate market space is huge

The rapid development of new energy vehicles, iron phosphate market opportunities. In the past five years, the compound growth rate of global new energy vehicles has reached 35%, and the compound growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles has reached 28%. According to the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by The State Council and the new energy vehicle promotion policies formulated by various countries, It is expected that the compound growth rate of global new energy vehicles in 2021-2025 will remain at 35%, the compound growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles will reach 30%, and the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 13.79 million by 2025, and the domestic sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 5.15 million. Benefiting from the vigorous development of new energy vehicles, we believe that iron phosphate, which is mainly used for new energy vehicle batteries, also has greater development opportunities.

Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicle production and sales, superimposed lithium iron phosphate battery penetration continues to increase, lithium iron phosphate demand is expected to increase significantly. According to the China Battery Industry Association Big Data center data, in 2020, China's lithium iron phosphate lithium material production of about 143,000 tons, an increase of 60.7%. Among them, the total output of the top ten enterprises accounts for 99% of China's lithium iron phosphate material production in 2020. Since this year benefited from China's power battery production continues to increase, the apparent consumption of lithium iron phosphate also continued to grow, according to the China Automotive power battery Industry Innovation Alliance data, from January to October this year, China's power battery lithium iron phosphate cumulative production has reached 87,500 megawatt hours, an increase of 287% over the same period last year. In terms of production capacity, as of the end of 2020, China's lithium iron phosphate material production enterprises have a total production capacity of more than 250,000 tons, according to the statistics of lithium iron phosphate material production enterprises expansion plan, the next 2-3 years, China's lithium iron phosphate material will increase production capacity of more than 330,000 tons. We believe that, benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicle production and sales, the superposition of lithium iron phosphate battery penetration continues to increase, lithium iron phosphate demand is expected to increase significantly.