Analysis of ten development trends of chemical industry under the background of carbon neutrality

Under the general trend of carbon neutrality, China's energy structure, industrial structure and consumption structure will undergo major regional structural changes

First of all, in order to achieve carbon neutrality, China will always adhere to the development of clean energy and green energy ideas in the next 30 years, in which solar energy will be the main energy structure of the energy industry, followed by clean energy such as wind and tidal energy. In addition, hydrogen and other energy structures will become auxiliary, and the proportion of fossil energy consumption will gradually decrease until the balance with clean energy to achieve carbon neutrality.

Secondly, under the dual-carbon trend, the proportion of energy manufacturing attributes has gradually increased, clean equipment, environmental protection and recycling industries will be favored by the market for a long time, and the proportion of industrial impact will be rapidly increased. The manufacturing of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to replace traditional fuel locomotives and drive carbon neutrality from the energy consumption market.

Finally, China's energy supply center is expected to gradually shift from the current western and central regions, such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, to the southwest and eastern China, mainly due to the shift in energy consumption structure from coal to clean energy. Brother Pingtou believes that the driving force of China's energy structure transformation comes from the consumption of new energy, and the reduction of traditional energy consumption and the growth of new energy consumption, there is a non-linear relationship and essential contradiction between the two, so it will usher in the pain of energy structure transformation in the short term in the future.

02 Carbon trading and carbon trade in the chemical industry under the trend of "double carbon" will bring a new trading system

Brother Pingtou learned that in the "13th Five-Year Plan" Work Plan for controlling Greenhouse gas emissions issued by The State Council in 2016, it is clear that the construction and operation of a national carbon emission trading market are mainly measured in three points: 1. Establish a national carbon emission trading system; 2. Launch and operate a national carbon emission trading market; 3. Strengthen the basic support capacity of national carbon emission trading.

At present, China's carbon trading market is mainly a quota system, with chemical companies selling and buying carbon emission allowances according to their own equipment. However, at present, carbon trading is only piloted in some provinces, the total amount of each pilot is relaxed, and there is a surplus of quotas in control and emission units, resulting in low carbon trading prices. Therefore, there is still a big gap between China's carbon trading market and that of developed countries in Europe and the United States.

In addition, at present, the pilot provinces of China's chemical enterprises are not willing to disclose the total amount of carbon emissions or the total amount of carbon quotas, which leads to the opacity of carbon trading information, resulting in the uncertainty of fair and reasonable market pricing for bilateral transactions, which greatly increases the transaction cost and reduces the transaction frequency. Therefore, the policy regulation of carbon trading in China's chemical industry, or the establishment of a new carbon trading platform, such as the "carbon currency" trading model, is fair, open and transparent, is expected to form a new carbon trading system, so as to help China's carbon neutral carbon trading model.

03

Large-scale, long-term energy storage is expected to drive the upgrading of the new chemical materials industry

According to the overall trend of carbon neutrality, the development of China's new energy industry is essentially the development of clean renewable energy, of which photovoltaic energy and wind energy have the greatest development compatibility, the essence of photovoltaic energy and wind energy lies in the integration model of the industrial chain of power transmission, energy storage and new energy vehicles, so energy storage is expected to be an important development direction in the future. Brother Pingtou believes that the future energy storage industry is optimistic, and the growth of energy storage scale lies in the development of new chemical materials.

Energy storage mainly refers to the storage of electric energy, mainly battery energy storage, inductor energy storage, capacitor energy storage and other ways, of which battery energy storage is an important application direction at present. Battery energy storage such as lead-acid battery energy storage, nickel-metal hydride battery energy storage, lithium-ion battery energy storage, etc., behind these batteries, is an important application of new materials in China's chemical industry.

In addition, with the development of new materials in China Chemical Industry, new types of energy storage batteries are also developing rapidly, such as sp2 hybrid carbon energy storage batteries, graphene batteries, etc., will be an important direction in the future.