Operation analysis of China's chemical fiber industry in 2022 and outlook in 2023

6. Investment in fixed assets increased and production capacity grew by inertia

Fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry declined from 2021, but still maintained stable growth. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the investment in fixed assets of the chemical fiber industry in 2022 increased by 21.4% year-on-year, down 10.4 percentage points from 2021. However, this growth is largely inertial growth, and the new production capacity is still mainly concentrated in the head enterprises, with the weakening of inertia, superimposing the high base in 2022, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry is likely to fall significantly in 2023 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Change of fixed asset investment growth rate in chemical fiber industry from 2008 to 2022

Second, 2023 chemical fiber industry outlook

At present, the international situation is still complex and grim, and the foundation for economic recovery is still not solid. World economic recovery will face greater pressure in 2023, and China will continue to be the engine of global economic growth. When deploying the economic work in 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference stressed that "we must adhere to the word stability and seek progress while maintaining stability", and further clarified that we should grasp the "six better overall plans" to do economic work well, requiring "strengthening the coordination and cooperation of various policies and forming joint forces to promote high-quality development". The Second Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee further stressed that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and effectively improve the resilience and safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. As the prevention and control of the epidemic in China enters a new stage and the implementation of various policies continues to decline, the order of production and life is expected to recover at a faster pace, the internal impetus for economic growth will continue to accumulate and strengthen, and the recovery of domestic consumption will have positive support.

After the Lantern Festival in 2023, the opening probability of downstream weaving and bomb enterprises continued to pick up, and the overall construction load of the chemical fiber industry rose at a low level, but the price transmission of the industrial chain was not smooth, and the economic benefits were not greatly improved. Looking forward to the whole year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry is still facing pressure from both ends of supply and demand, and whether the relationship between supply and demand can improve has become the key to whether the operation of the industry can stabilize and rebound. From the perspective of terminal demand, the domestic market has the basis for a stable recovery, and the improvement of residents' income and expectations provides an important support for the consumption growth of clothing, shoes and hats, but the transitional period of the epidemic may still cause periodic fluctuations in the domestic market. Textile and apparel export market pressure increases, developed economies clothing consumption growth space is limited, while emerging economies industrial chain supporting demand is facing downward pressure, China's yarn, fabric and other intermediate products export growth or slow down, chemical fiber exports are still expected to remain stable. From the supply side, chemical fiber production capacity is still likely to maintain inertial growth, before the effective growth of demand, industry enterprises should focus on controlling new capacity, to avoid further escalation of the contradiction between supply and demand, in order to maintain the sustainable and stable development of the chemical fiber industry. In addition, the trend of oil prices will continue to be one of the important factors affecting the operation of the chemical fiber market, the oil market in 2023 will be in the game between economic recession and geopolitics, Opec said that the economic factors affecting the oil price tilt downward. In the base case, oil prices in 2023 are expected to be less volatile than in 2022, and the operating center is expected to be lower than in 2022.

The year 2023 is the first year of fully implementing the spirit of the Party's 20 Congresses, and it is also a key year for the "14th Five-Year Plan". The "Guidance on the High-quality Development of chemical fiber Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed that by 2025, a group of leading enterprises with strong competitiveness should be formed, a high-end, intelligent and green modern industrial system should be built, and a comprehensive chemical fiber power should be built. The 20th National Congress of the CPC drew a grand blueprint for comprehensively building a modern socialist country and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese-style modernization, which further provided a fundamental guideline for the high-quality development of the textile and chemical fiber industry. In the face of new strategic opportunities and tasks, new strategic stages and requirements, the chemical fiber industry should face the forefront of science and technology, face the upgrading of consumption, face the major needs, and improve the innovation system; Adhere to the priority of energy conservation and carbon reduction, expand green fiber production, and build a clean, low-carbon, circular green manufacturing system; Increase the supply of high-quality products, cultivate well-known fiber brands, and expand the application field of fiber; We will accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, improve our operation and management capabilities, and modernize the industrial chain.