Operation analysis of China's chemical fiber industry in 2022 and outlook in 2023

The lack of terminal demand has led to a decline in the operating rate of the main downstream industries of chemical fiber compared with the same period in 2021. Huarui information data show that the average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in March was about 70%, down 16 percentage points from the same period in 2021; From April to August, the average monthly operating rate was below 60%, and in September and October, the average monthly operating rate rose to about 70%. Since late October, the operating rate has shown a downward trend, and there was a slight recovery in the first half of December, but it began to decline again in the second half of the month, and has fallen to about 25% by the end of December.

(3) Exports continued to grow and competitive advantages improved

Customs data show that the export volume of chemical fiber in 2022 is 5.654,500 tons, an increase of 8.76% (Table 2), which is 1.22 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate (7.54%) since the "13th Five-Year Plan" (2015). The growth of chemical fiber exports reflects the increasing demand in the international market and the improvement of the competitiveness of China's chemical fiber products. Among them, acrylic fiber exports increased significantly. Analysis of the reasons: first, since the beginning of the year, the European Germanung 200,000 tons of factories shut down, resulting in a supply gap; Second, since the beginning of the year, the overall depreciation of the RMB has increased the price advantage of acrylic fiber exports; Third, compared with India and other countries and regions, the quality of domestic products also has certain advantages.

In addition, in the past two years, polyester bottle sheet exports have performed brilliantly, with a year-on-year increase of 36.03% in 2021 and a significant increase of 35.67% in 2022. The main reasons are: first, since the fourth quarter of 2021, some overseas devices have stopped unexpectedly, and failed to resume normal production in a short period of time, since 2022, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has affected the global energy shortage, overseas devices have low enthusiasm for construction due to high costs, and there is a large gap in overseas bottle flake supply; Second, with the easing of the epidemic, overseas market demand has gradually recovered; Third, although the export price of China's polyester bottle chips has also risen, compared with overseas products with high energy costs, China's polyester bottle chips are more cost-effective; Fourth, domestic bottle production capacity growth, and domestic demand growth is limited, so the factory actively expand the export market. Multiple factors superposition, so that China's polyester bottle sheet export to refresh the record high.

(4) The chemical fiber market is weak and the cost transmission is not smooth

Since 2022, the high price of crude oil has fluctuated greatly, which has seriously dragged down the chemical fiber market, and the combined demand is insufficient, and the overall performance of the chemical fiber market is weak (Figure 1, Figure 2).

In the first half of the year, crude oil prices rose by more than 60%, which significantly increased the cost of raw materials and energy costs in the chemical fiber industry, but in the reality of "weak demand", enterprises can not transfer the "high cost" smoothly, squeezing corporate profits and taking up a lot of working capital. In the second half of the year, crude oil prices fell rapidly, once falling back to the level at the beginning of the year, although the cost of raw materials for enterprises was greatly reduced, the chemical fiber market lost support, and the continuous decline in product prices caused sales to be more difficult.

(5) Revenue maintained growth, and profit decreased significantly

In 2022, the economic benefit indicators of the chemical fiber industry declined significantly. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the operating income of the chemical fiber industry remained at the trillion yuan level, reaching 1,0900,074 billion yuan, an increase of 5.32% year-on-year; The total profit was 24.129 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.22%, and the chemical fiber industry only contributed about 12% of the profit to the textile industry, which was 13 percentage points lower than that in 2021; The loss of the industry was 31.93%, an increase of 14.63 percentage points compared with 2021, and the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 102.67% year-on-year (Table 3).

In terms of industry, polyester, nylon, acrylic and spandex industries contributed about 31%, 29%, 6% and 6% of the total profit of chemical fiber, respectively, of which the total profit of the acrylic industry increased significantly, and the spandex industry declined significantly due to the high base in 2021, but it was still higher than the pre-epidemic level. In addition, the carbon fiber industry still maintains a high prosperity, market demand continues to increase, the scale of production capacity is growing rapidly, and the entire industry continues to achieve profitability in 2022. It is worth noting that in the case of sluggish demand and severe industry situation, the larger the scale of enterprises, the greater the pressure on production and sales, some large enterprises take the initiative to limit production, resulting in higher operating costs per unit product, little improvement in profitability, but it gives more flexible small and medium-sized enterprises to vacate some space.