Under the background of stable coal supply and price, coal-fired power generation industry

2, mainly coal-fired power generation thermal power will help ensure the demand for electricity

2.1. Electricity demand is expected to increase

From January to July 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 4.93 trillion KWH, an increase of 3.40% year-on-year. By quarter, electricity consumption in the first quarter was 2.04 trillion KWH, an increase of 6.20%. Electricity consumption in the second quarter was 2.05 trillion KWH, up 2.04% year on year. Electricity consumption in July was 0.83 trillion KWH, up 7.30 percent year on year.

The growth rate of electricity consumption in the second quarter was slower, mainly because the epidemic spread in many places around April affected the start of production, resulting in the impact of electricity demand. In May, the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value and the cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption were the lowest values from January to July, and the two indicators gradually improved from June to July. In June, the epidemic situation eased, and the stable economic policy promoted the recovery of industrial production. At the same time, the continuous high temperature in many places led to increased demand for cooling electricity, and the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption rose in the month. The growth rate of electricity consumption accelerated further in July, mainly because industrial production continued to recover and China ushered in a prolonged hot weather. The national average temperature in July was 23.2 ° C, 1 ° C higher than the same period of the year, and the daily maximum temperature of 245 national meteorological stations exceeded the historical extreme value in July. At the same time, the average number of high temperature days in July was 5.6 days (daily maximum temperature ≥35℃), 2 days more than the same period of the year, and the second most in the same period since 1961 (second only to 2017).

As of August 30, the National Meteorological Center had issued a high temperature alert for 41 consecutive days, including 12 consecutive days of red alert, the highest level, from August 12 to 23. We believe that in the short term, higher temperatures will increase the frequency of use of appliances such as air conditioners, thereby increasing electricity demand. In the medium term, since June, the epidemic has been relatively controllable, the epidemic has been alleviated in areas to speed up the resumption of work and production, and the steady economic policies have continued to exert their strength, and the relevant policies and measures to promote consumption, promote employment, promote foreign trade, and expand effective investment are expected to gradually land. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the continuous efforts of stable economic policies, industrial production is expected to continue to recover, and the demand for electricity is expected to increase. In July 2022, the China Electricity Union estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2022 would be 8.75 trillion-8.83 trillion KWH, with a year-on-year growth rate of between 5% and 6%. According to this estimate, the electricity consumption of the whole society in August to December this year is about 382-390 trillion KWH, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 6%-8%.

2.2. Thermal power, mainly coal-fired power generation, will help ensure power supply

From January to July 2022, the power generation of power plants above designated size in China reached 4.77 trillion KWH, an increase of 2.75% year-on-year. Among them, hydropower power generation reached 0.73 trillion KWH, an increase of 16.66% year-on-year, mainly because of the abundance of water from many important rivers in China in the first half of the year. According to the disclosure of key companies in the hydropower industry, Yangtze River Power said that in the first half of 2022, the total amount of incoming water from Xiluodu Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was about 50.97 billion cubic meters, 74.43% higher than the same period last year, and the total amount of incoming water from Three Gorges Reservoir was about 177.279 billion cubic meters, 27.47% higher than the same period last year; Huaneng Hydropower said that in the first half of 2022, the inflow of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu sections in the Lancang River basin exceeded 30% compared with the same period last year. In the second quarter, there was a surplus of water in the Yalong River basin, according to State Investment Power. At the same time, according to the data of key hydropower stations, the reservoir water level of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station and Panjiakou Hydropower Station in the second quarter was significantly higher than in previous years. The high water level of the hydropower station resulted from the abundant inflow of important rivers, and the abundant hydropower resources drove the power generation equipment to generate electricity. In the first half of the year, the average utilization of hydropower generation equipment was 1,691 hours, an increase of 13.03% year-on-year, thus promoting the substantial growth of hydropower generation.