Four dimensions tell you, how much will China's commercial vehicle industry return in 2022?

2022 is certainly not the best year for the commercial vehicle industry.

Revenue has fallen sharply, stock prices have generally fallen, and the whole industry has made less money and lost more money. Of the 15 major publicly traded companies, 12 reported revenue declines, and the declines were generally in the double digits.

The epidemic is the main reason, on the one hand, it reduces market demand, on the other hand, it also increases operating costs. Some business executives bluntly said: "Companies in the industry are living a hard life, how to survive is the most important thing for enterprises at present."

But there is also an opportunity. Financial automobile (ID:caijingqiche) found that a common thing in the commercial vehicle industry is that each company has more than the net profit of the same period on a single investment in research and development, that is, if it does not do research and development, the company can make a profit. Why maintain huge R&D investments in difficult times? What opportunities does this mean for the commercial vehicle industry in the medium and long term after getting rid of the impact of the epidemic?

To analyze the performance of the commercial vehicle industry, we selected 15 listed companies in the Shenwan Hongyuan Commercial Vehicle Index (801096.SI). Including Jiangling Motor (000550.SZ), FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ), Ankai Bus (000868.SZ), SinotruK (000951.SZ), Dongfeng Motor (600006.SH), Yutong bus (600066.SH), Foton Motor (600166.SH), Yaxing bus (6 00213.SH), Jinlong Motor (600686.SH), Zhongtong Bus (600957.SH), ST Dawning (600303.SH), Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), CIMC Vehicle (301039.SZ), Hanma Technology (600375.SH) and Power Xinke (600841.SH), etc., and from the four dimensions of revenue, stock price, profit, research and development investment

Revenue fell sharply, mainly because of the pandemic

Commercial vehicles are a cyclical industry and this year is clearly not an upward cycle. In 2022, compared with 2021, the general revenue of companies in the industry has declined significantly.

Of the 15 companies surveyed, 12 reported a decline in revenue and three reported an increase. Among them, the top 7 large companies in terms of revenue scale all declined year-on-year, ranging from 10% to 66%, which shows the severe situation of the commercial vehicle industry.

In terms of market segments, the situation is more severe for trucks than buses. The three companies with rising revenue are all bus companies, such as Jinlong Automobile, up 6.09%, Zhongtong Bus, up 26.54%, and Yaxing bus, up 44.16%.

The epidemic is the biggest uncertainty affecting the commercial vehicle market. Because commercial vehicles are not consumer goods, but means of production. The epidemic has had a significant negative impact on consumption, travel, infrastructure and other needs, resulting in reduced demand for road transport and poor operation. At the same time, international geopolitical events and overseas inflation have led to rising oil and gas prices.

"At this stage, companies in the industry are living a hard life, and how to survive is the most important thing for companies at the moment." As Jinlong Automobile Secretary Ji Xiaojian recently said in the acceptance of institutional research, "The company's bus production and sales decline, on the one hand, the industry sales reached a peak in 2015, and then began to decline, and this year's sales are less than 40% of 2015 sales; On the other hand, it is the low demand due to the pandemic, which is the biggest challenge for the industry."

Since 2022, the stock price of the commercial vehicle industry has fallen

From January 1 to December 5, 2022, the Shenwan Hongyuan Commercial Vehicle Index fell by 11.46%. Of the 15 companies surveyed, five rose and 10 fell.

As the five enterprises with the largest weight, Jianghuai Automobile fell by 16.11%, Yutong bus fell by 23.80%, Foton Automobile fell by 20.06%, FAW Jiefang fell by 6.97%, and China National Heavy Duty Truck fell by 12.40%.

Take SinotruK as an example, the stock price came to a high of 33.21 yuan in February 2021, then all the way down, to the lowest 8.65 yuan in April 2022, and since then, the bottom has rebounded, and by December 2022, the price has been fixed to about 15 yuan, compared with more than a year ago.

As share prices languish, companies are buying back shares to shore up confidence. As of November 30, 2022, SinotruK has repurchased 5,066,200 shares, accounting for 0.4312% of the company's total share capital, at a cost of 63,287,600 yuan.

In a "falling", it is worth paying attention to Zhongtong bus - in the commercial vehicle industry with a double-digit decline, its share price actually achieved a rise of 138.45% against the trend.

This is because Zhongtong Bus has become a "nucleic acid testing" concept stock. Zhongtong Bus production and sales of nucleic acid testing vehicles, although the scale is not large, the announcement shows a total of 38 vehicles, income 107 million yuan, but this in the middle of this year for Zhongtong sent a dozen of the limit, the stock price from the past less than 5 yuan to nearly 30 yuan, driving the market value has also doubled at least.