Four dimensions tell you, how much will China's commercial vehicle industry return in 2022?

The mid-year rally in Zhongtong Bus did not last, and after reaching a record high of 27.97 yuan in July, the share price began to fall back, and by early December, the share price was back around 13 yuan. After all, the performance of Zhongtong bus in recent years is general, and the net profit after deducting non-profits has suffered losses for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021, and the loss range is still increasing, reaching 276 million yuan.

The profit predicament of Zhongtong bus is common in the industry.

Among the 15 statistical enterprises, in the first three quarters of 2022, there were 7 profits and 8 losses, and the amount of losses was greater than the amount of profits, and on the whole, the loss was more than the profit.

Hanma Technology ranked first in the industry with a loss of 1.098 billion yuan. The state-owned enterprise from Anhui province owns the two major brands of Xingma special vehicles and Valin heavy trucks, and sold 5,225 units in the first 11 months of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 59.83%.

Because according to the segmentation field, the heavy truck market of Hanma Technology is more affected by the downward cycle, and the decline is more obvious than that of the commercial vehicle market.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the first three quarters of 2022 were 523,000, down 57.6% year-on-year, and both sales and year-on-year hit a new low in the same period in recent years, falling into the "darkest moment".

The reason is that heavy truck emission standards switched from "National five" to "National six" in July 2021, and manufacturers have increased promotion efforts, resulting in heavy truck market demand being seriously overdrawn in the first half of 2021. In addition, the logistics market continues to be sluggish, and the demand for heavy goods vehicles has slowed down. Under the influence of a series of factors such as environmental protection limited production, excess capacity, and insufficient construction of infrastructure projects, end user orders are also less than expected.

Even FAW Jiefang, which has continuously maintained the industry's largest sales volume in the field of heavy trucks, is also experiencing pains. 2022 third quarter report shows that the company's main income of 30.455 billion yuan, down 65.63% year-on-year; Net profit attributable to the parent - 652 million yuan, down 118.29% year-on-year.

In the 15 commercial vehicle enterprises in the highest net profit (717 million yuan) Jiangling Motor, the main attack is the light passenger car market, light passenger is bleak in China's commercial vehicle market one of the few bright spots.

Due to the repeated epidemic in China, residents' dependence on online shopping has increased, which has promoted the development of e-commerce and urban logistics in a short period of time. The released demand for the distribution of livelihood materials and medical supplies has boosted the sales growth of light passenger cars and vans, and the sales volume of medical ambulances has remained high. Therefore, the performance of light passenger cars is significantly better than that of medium and large buses. Better than the commercial vehicle market.

Jiangling sold 253,398 vehicles in the first 11 months of this year, down 16.89 percent from a year earlier.

R&d investment is generally greater than net profit

Under the unfavorable short-term market environment, commercial vehicle enterprises still maintain R&D investment in order to pursue long-term competitiveness.

Of the 15 companies, 13 invested more in research and development in the first three quarters of this year than their net profit in the same period, that is to say, "research and development at a loss."

Among them, FAW Jiefang not only has the highest research and development investment (1.762 billion yuan), but also the difference between research and development and profit (-652 million yuan) is more than 2.4 billion yuan, both indicators are far beyond the peer, indicating that the most willing to spend money to do research and development.

New energy is the direction of transformation of commercial vehicle enterprises. With the orderly promotion of the national "dual carbon" strategy, especially the continuous tightening of environmental regulations, the traditional energy commercial vehicle market will continue to show a shrinking trend, and new energy commercial vehicles are expected to show rapid growth.

In response to investor questions on December 5, the board secretary of FAW Jiefang said that the company has laid out five major vehicle product platforms in new energy products, including heavy, medium, light, micro and passenger, and three technical routes including pure electric, hybrid and fuel cells, and will also strengthen the layout in the fields of research and development, production capacity and ecology. In terms of electric heavy trucks, at present, for coal, sand and gravel transportation, port transportation, urban construction residue, concrete mixing and other special scenarios with short transport distances, high frequency and heavy loads, more than 50 electric heavy trucks including charging and power exchange routes, traction, self-unloading, and concrete mixing have been completed.