Ten thoughts on the evolution of the underlying logic of the new power system

Building a new type of power system is a dynamic process in which new energy is gradually developed as the main energy source, and different basic contradictions should be focused on solving at different stages of development.

In the different stages of the gradual development of new energy as the main energy, policy design should take into account the relationship between development and emission reduction, overall and local, short and medium term, while giving full consideration to the orderly transformation of coal power and moderate development of gas power needs, actively promote and friendly tolerance of different forms of new energy development. And its different stages of development of technical characteristics, cost characteristics to adapt to.

Building a new power system and continuously promoting new energy to become the main energy can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage, promoting the development of new energy to become the main body of electric power installation; The second stage is to promote the development of new energy as the main body of electricity and power supply. New energy is not only the main body of power supply quantity, but also the main body of function and responsibility that can ensure the safe and stable operation of the new power system. The third stage is to promote the development of new energy as the main body of energy production and consumption in the whole society, and the utilization of new energy is deeply coupled with the energy production and consumption modes of industry, construction, transportation and other industries, forming various new forms of industrial energy integration such as "new energy +", "digital +" and "transaction +", supporting the future social development of highly electrified, low-carbon, digital, intelligent and interactive. High quality to achieve national carbon neutrality targets.

Building a new power system with new energy as the main body is a process of continuous dynamic evolution. At different stages of development, targeted policies should be designed around actively promoting and friendly absorbing the development of different forms of new energy distribution. Whether it is centralized development, or distributed utilization, or the integration form of centralized planning and distributed utilization such as photovoltaic county development, it is necessary to iteratively optimize the development model of new energy according to the changes in the technical characteristics and cost characteristics of new energy utilization, and make corresponding adjustments to the policy.

The decisive factor that determines the fundamental characteristics of the evolution direction and process of the new power system is the overall consideration of the stage capacity of social energy use and the long-term economy under the condition of security constraints. The construction of a new power system, if viewed from an economic perspective, is bound to be a dynamic process that can economically solve the cost of energy transformation, the cost of new systems and the cost of low carbon and zero carbon energy use in the industry at different stages of development.

The policy design of different development stages should grasp the main contradiction of ensuring long-term economy, and seek high economic solutions to the cost of energy transformation, the cost of new systems and the cost of low carbon and zero carbon energy use in the industry.

At different stages of development, the policy design for building a new power system should focus on solving the main cost growth problems in a specific stage of development.

In general, it is necessary to focus on solving the cost of new energy power generation in the initial stage, and to comprehensively solve the cost growth problems such as the cost of coal power transformation, the cost of new systems and the cost of low carbon zero carbon energy use in the industry.

Over the past 10 years, thanks to industrial policy support, technological resource accumulation and continuous capital investment, the cost of new energy power generation has been significantly reduced.

Research shows that around 2026, the levelized electricity cost of photovoltaic and onshore wind power in China will be lower than the cost of coal power.

However, the cost of new energy when it is connected to the grid node is not the cost of end-user electricity. Practice shows that after the penetration rate of new energy exceeds 15%, the system cost will rise significantly. At the same time, the future development must simultaneously consider the gradual withdrawal of coal power and the significant decline in the utilization hours of existing coal power units and other energy transformation costs, as well as the cost of accelerating the upgrading of various industries under the dual-carbon background. All walks of life from the high-carbon technology route to the low-carbon, zero-carbon technology route, need to invest a lot of technological innovation costs and energy mode conversion costs.

For example, in terms of solving the new system costs under the condition of high penetration of new energy, the future policy design must adhere to the government and the market.