Ten thoughts on the evolution of the underlying logic of the new power system

On the one hand, it is necessary to fully consider whether the new power system can effectively stimulate the hierarchical partition of the large system into several autonomous small systems, the use of high-precision forecasting technology, flexible market mechanism and other ways to achieve local self-balance, reduce the balance power required by the large system, so as to reduce the incremental cost input.

On the other hand, it is necessary to fully consider the high coupling of energy and power with the industrial system, and encourage the balance of the system to develop from the use of flexible power resources such as pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage to the cross-network mutual benefit and multi-energy complementarity of comprehensive energy sources such as cold storage and heat storage, electrothermal coordination, and electrohydrogen coupling, with electricity as the carrier, digitalization as the support, and highly developed market transactions as the means. Maximize the use of flexible resources widely distributed in industry, construction, transportation and other fields to solve the balance problem of the future power system at low cost, and support the electrification, low-carbon, digital and intelligent transformation of the economy and society.

Third, the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is facing a new physical system security challenge. Ensuring the safety and resilience of physical systems is an important determinant of the evolution and cost characteristics of new power systems.

The policy design at different stages of development should actively adapt to the changing physical characteristics of the power system and the constraints of new security laws, and the purpose is to build an energy and power physical system with strong system security resilience, and be able to cope with the challenges of extreme weather, disasters, various local attacks and digital network attacks.

Ensuring physical system security has always been the bottom line and primary responsibility of power system development. Compared with the traditional power system, the connotation and content of ensuring the physical security toughness of the new power system with new energy as the main body are changing directionally.

Existing research shows that it is expected that by 2060, wind power photovoltaic installed capacity will account for more than 85%, and electricity generation will account for nearly 70%. The randomness, volatility and intermittently caused by new energy power generation have comprehensively escalated the security and stability of power supply, and it is necessary to deepen the research and prevention of new risks simultaneously, and reconstruct the power security theory and risk prevention system.

For example, new energy output is significantly affected by weather factors, with the rising penetration rate of new energy, even the climate phenomenon that seems to be accustomed to now (such as the rainy season in the south), the future will lead to the risk of a relatively large power shortage in the power grid, not to mention the risk of extreme weather, disasters, and local attacks. At the same time, the power control and operation system established on the digital and intelligent platform, the risk of being attacked by hackers and hostile parties is also a major new power security risk, and the combination of the two is more destructive.

Fourth, the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is facing a new national economic security challenge.

The policy design at different stages of development should be based on the height of national economic security, adhere to the concept of system, adhere to the domestic cycle as the main body, the domestic and international double cycle to promote each other, adhere to a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance, and take into account resource security, scientific and technological security, industrial security, and data security at different stages of development.

In terms of resource security, on the one hand, it is necessary to see that the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body helps to implement the new strategy of national energy security, reduce the external dependence of the oil and gas industry (at present, the external dependence of China's crude oil exceeds 70%, and the external dependence of natural gas exceeds 40%), and is conducive to enhancing the supply resilience of China's energy resources. On the other hand, we must also see the challenge of mineral resource supply brought about by the large-scale development of new energy.

Studies have shown that the deployment of clean energy technologies depends on adequate supplies of key minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and other key minerals that are the basis for manufacturing various clean energy equipment. According to the relevant research of the IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission), the demand for minerals in an ordinary electric car is 6 times that of an ordinary car; Building an onshore wind farm requires nine times more minerals than a gas-fired plant of the same capacity. The supply shortage and market price fluctuation of key minerals will seriously affect the large-scale development of new energy.