Innovative drugs accelerate internationalization, generic drugs need to break out of the era of meager profits, investment heat or fade...

2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", standing at the starting point of the new cycle, China's pharmaceutical industry has entered an adjustment period, drug supervision has accelerated the internationalization of the advanced stage, new drug approval and listing has accelerated, and the fourth terminal has been born upward. In the face of changes, how to carry out stable and long-term?

On December 27, at the 33rd National Pharmaceutical Economy Information Conference hosted by Pharmaceutical Economic News, Lin Jianning, Party secretary of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics of the State Medical Products Administration, Wang Yiting, head of Jingdong Health and Medicine Division, and Geng Hongwu, a special expert of Pharmaceutical Economic News, made a comprehensive review of the development of the pharmaceutical industry in 2021. The trend of pharmaceutical economy in 2022 is analyzed and prospected.

Lin Jianning: Four highlights of the operation of pharmaceutical economy in 2022

Lin Jianning pointed out that "in 2021, China's pharmaceutical economy has rebounded significantly after experiencing a low period affected by the epidemic last year." The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China's GDP will grow by 8% in 2021. The growth rate of operating income of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was stable and moderated. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to October 2021, the operating revenue of China's pharmaceutical industry was 2,352.98 billion yuan, an increase of 22.8%, and the total profit of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 76.7%.

"This is a welcome increase, but there are concerns." Lin Jianning analysis, the main driving force for the high growth is the decline in sales of hospitals affected by the epidemic in 2020, and after the normalization of the epidemic prevention and control this year, the hospital operation has returned to normal, so chemical agents, traditional Chinese medicine, and biological products have rebounded sharply. Although the medical device industry is still growing at a rapid rate this year, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate has fallen and gradually returned to normal. Overall, the operation of the pharmaceutical economy in 2021 continued to recover, and the growth rate showed a steady slowdown.

When looking forward to the operation of the pharmaceutical economy in 2022, Lin Jianning believes that there are four main highlights:

First, China's innovative drugs are accelerating internationalization. On the one hand, the research and development of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises has become a new international force; On the other hand, the State Food and Drug Administration was re-elected as a member of the ICH Management Committee, and China's drug supervision accelerated the internationalization of the process, making it possible for China's innovative drugs to enter the world and achieve synchronous research and development.

The second is the breakthrough exploration in the era of meager profits of generic drugs. After several rounds of collection, generic drugs have entered the era of low profit, and the internationalization of generic drugs is a topic that must be considered. Although the road is still difficult, but generic drugs to break through the difficulties, must reconstruct a new ecosystem.

Third, the fourth terminal continues to advance. Data show that from January to October 2021, online prescription drug sales were 15.711 billion yuan, an increase of 201.9%. The fourth terminal will inevitably become the important terminal of drug sales in our country.

Fourth, epidemic prevention and control products serve the world. In 2022, China will continue to contribute to the global epidemic prevention and control, and the export of related products is expected to continue to thrive.

Although the development of the pharmaceutical economy has many bright spots, it will inevitably enter a period of adjustment in 2022. Lin Jianning said that the pharmaceutical industry is mainly facing three major pressures:

The first pressure is terminal growth stall. First of all, the first terminal has experienced significant weak growth under the combination of fee control, two-vote system, collection, DRGs and other policies. Secondly, the second terminal sales also showed a slowing trend. Affected by the epidemic, retail terminals in 2020 showed serious polarization, with some pharmacies closed and unable to sell drugs, while head chains grew very well. In 2020, the growth rate of offline sales of pharmaceutical retail is 6%, and the sales growth rate in the first half of this year is only 0.5%, and the decline trend of the second terminal is obvious.

The second pressure is the waning of investment enthusiasm. Capital has a great role in promoting pharmaceutical innovation, especially after the opening of the science and technology innovation board, China's pharmaceutical independent innovation has moved to a new level. However, this year, Beigene Technology innovation board broke, Inke Medical gave up the Hong Kong IPO should also cause the industry to ponder, which shows that the original financing bubble, especially the high premium financing of high levels of repeated innovative products, has begun to ebb, and capital is rational.