The end of 2021, looking ahead to 2022, what prospects for the automotive industry?

Automakers are reevaluating their long-standing commitment to just-in-time (JIT) inventory strategies. This strategy leaves Oems and Tier 1 suppliers with no emergency stock available in the event of a supply shortage of various chips. As a result, automakers are rethinking the way they work with chipmakers and considering designing their own chips. Gartner predicts that by 2025, 50 percent of the top 10 automotive Oems will design their own chips and have direct, long-term strategic relationships with chip companies, while abandoning just-in-time inventory management strategies.

Digital giants such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google (http://GOOGL.US), Alibaba-SW (09988) or Tencent (00700) will continue to expand their presence in automotive technology in 2022. "These technology companies are further integrating the car into their respective ecosystems, which will lead to new connected car services," Pacheco said. Gartner predicts that by 2028, 70% of cars sold will be powered by the Android automotive operating system, up from less than 1% today. Pacheco said: "Because of the difficulty of developing technology and software on its own. Car companies will either partner with digital giants to make most of their profits through software; Or we can do most of the development ourselves by building a huge internal resource base."

Trend 3: Open Data and Open Source collaboration models are accelerating in 2021, with tech companies creating open vehicle architecture operating systems and open electric vehicle (EV) platforms. This new partnership model for the automotive industry will accelerate in 2022. In addition, car companies will increasingly look at data from a technical perspective. "It's not about selling data, it's about building or integrating ecosystems to get more diverse data to develop more attractive features or digital services," Pacheco said.

Trend 4: Mature automakers are embracing OTAs as their primary digital revenue channel Several automakers began offering software updates last year, making a significant shift in the automotive over-the-air transfer (OTA) software market. Most automakers are already making vehicles support software updates by updating the hardware on their vehicles, and they are now shifting to a revenue model where they sell services instead of selling assets. Gartner analysts predict that by 2023, half of the top 10 automakers will unlock and upgrade features through software updates that customers can purchase after purchasing a car.

Trend 5: More regulations to come, but barriers to commercialization remain Despite improvements in sensing technology, increasingly advanced sensing algorithms, and evolving regulations and standards, it is still difficult for autonomous vehicle developers to expand autonomous technology to new cities or regions. Automakers have begun releasing Level 3 autonomous vehicles and are working to deploy Level 4 autonomous trucks and commercial robotaxis. But they still need a long time to prove the safety and effectiveness of autonomous driving technology, and a large number of simulation and real-world environment tests make the commercialization of the technology slow and expensive. In addition, issues such as liability in the event of an accident, as well as related legal and social concerns such as how human-driven vehicles will interact with AI vehicles, add to the difficulty of moving the technology toward commercialization. Jonathan Davenport, research director at Gartner, said: "The high development costs of robotaxis or Class 4 trucks not only hinder the speed of adoption, but also the realization of return on investment. Ironically, one of the main advantages of autonomous vehicles is the reduction of transportation costs." Gartner analysts predict that by 2030, there will be four times as many Level 4 autonomous robotaxis in operation globally as there will be taxis in 2022.