PX ushered in the production capacity cycle, and the external dependence continued to decline

Supply pattern ushered in improvement, the industry continues to boom

Polyester filament production capacity growth slowed down, the supply pattern ushered in improvement

2015-2016, after the end of the last round of production cycle, polyester filament faced overcapacity, production capacity slowed down, the industry continued to decline, and the supply side reform was implemented in the industry during the same period, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises' production capacity was cleared. 2017-2020 Leading enterprises with cost advantages and scale advantages quickly put capacity to occupy the market share of clearing enterprises. In three years, Tongkun Group put in 2.9 million tons of production capacity, and New Fengming added 2.12 million tons of production capacity, and the production capacity was concentrated in leading enterprises, and the industry concentration increased significantly. In 2020, the production capacity of Shenghong, Hengli and Hengyi will increase by 250,000 tons, 700,000 tons and 750,000 tons respectively, and the total production capacity in 2020 will be 42.18 million tons, an increase of 24% compared with 2017. The total output was 36.62 million tons, an increase of 25% compared with 2017.

Polyester filament industry expansion in the next two years orderly. In 2021, it is expected to add 2.62 million tons of new production capacity, an increase of 6%, and in 2022, Tongkun Rudong two phase plants are planned to be put into operation, and it is expected to increase production capacity by 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity in the next 2-3 years is expected to maintain a stable trend, but most of the new production capacity comes from leading enterprises. According to Longzhonginformation forecast, the next two years of new production capacity of more than 6 million tons, the annual growth rate of more than 9%, lower than the apparent consumption forecast growth rate of 9.7%, the demand growth rate is greater than the supply growth rate, polyester filament will greatly improve the supply and demand pattern, the industry cycle boom continues.

The concentration of polyester filament industry continues to increase

The advantages of leading enterprises continue to expand, and the industry concentration continues to improve. With the continuous expansion of polyester filament production, supply and demand imbalance caused by industry profits compression, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises limited capacity, high production costs, low market share, unable to support technology upgrades and other expenditures, have stopped production exit the market, leading enterprises with scale advantages, cost advantages and capital advantages quickly seize market share. In 2020, the market share of CR10 in the polyester filament industry is about 57%, and the concentration of the top four in the industry has reached about 40%. In the future, leading enterprises will continue to expand production, and the survival space of small and medium-sized production capacity in the industry is limited. It is expected that the concentration of the polyester filament industry will be further improved. According to the production plan of the past two years, it is expected that the industry concentration of CR10 can reach more than 80% in 2023. In recent years, the new production capacity of leading enterprises led by Tongkun, Hengyi, New Fengming and Shenghong has reached more than 6.6 million tons, leading enterprises have constantly adjusted the industrial chain, optimized the industrial structure, improved the overall competitiveness, widened the gap between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry, and the industry concentration has been continuously improved.