Data analysis of power generation structure transformation from "eleventh Five-Year Plan" to "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"

1. Steady growth in electricity production

1. Power generation trend

In 2021, the full-caliber power generation of 8.38 trillion kwh, an increase of 9.8%, and the power generation of 4.23 trillion kwh at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010, nearly doubled. The trend of full-caliber power generation from 2010 to 2021 is shown in the figure below.

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of full-bore power generation was 6.3%, 2011 continued the "11th Five-Year Plan" high growth rate, and began to slow down in 2012, 2015 by the impact of the year-on-year growth rate of light industry and heavy industry power consumption, power generation growth declined significantly, thermal power generation since the reform and opening up the first annual negative growth.

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth of full-caliber power generation was 5.9%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than the average annual growth of the "12th Five-Year Plan". In the first three years of the 13th Five-Year Plan, power generation growth was high, the growth rate slowed down slightly in 2019, and it further slowed down in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, and it began to recover in 2021.

2, power generation installed trend

By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation reached 2.38 billion kw, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, and a total increase of 146% compared with 970 million kw at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010. The installed capacity of the main power generation types is: thermal power 1.30 billion kw(including coal 1.12 billion kw), hydropower 390 million kw(including pumped storage 36.39 million kw), nuclear power 53.26 million kw, wind power 330 million kw(including offshore wind power 26.39 million kw), solar power 310 million kw(including distributed 110 million kw). The trend of national full-caliber power generation capacity from 2010 to 2021 is shown in the figure below.

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation increased by an average annual rate of 9.6%, which was 3.6 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the "11th Five-Year Plan".

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of full-caliber power generation capacity was 7.6%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the "12th Five-Year Plan".

Generally speaking, after more than 30 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, due to the continuous expansion of the total scale of China's economy, the economic development speed after the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" has slowed down, and the development speed of the power generation industry has also slowed down.

Second, the power transformation trend is obvious

1. Development achievements of the 11th Five-Year Plan

Since the founding of our country, the power supply mainly depends on thermal power, followed by hydropower; Nuclear power and wind power started in the mid-1980s; Biomass and solar power generation began to develop during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. According to the national energy development "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" report, the achievements of the power generation industry during the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" period are mainly reflected in the protection of power supply, the development of clean energy and the implementation of energy conservation and environmental protection, which has laid a strong foundation for the development of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".

(1) Ensuring power supply capacity. At the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010, the total installed capacity of full-caliber power generation nearly doubled from the end of the fifth Five-Year Plan in 2005, reaching 970 million kw, ranking second in the world, with an average annual growth of 13.2%. Among them, the thermal power installed capacity reached 710 million kw (including 3.41 million kw biomass), an average annual growth of 12.7%, accounting for 73.5% of the total installed capacity, has been the most important power supply to ensure power supply in China.

2) Increase the proportion of clean energy. In 2010, the installed capacity of hydropower reached 220 million kw, ranking first in the world, with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%, and its growth rate is on par with that of thermal power. The installed capacity of nuclear power was 10.82 million kw, an annual increase of 9.6%; The installed capacity of wind power was about 30 million kw (only 1.26 million kw in 2005), with an average annual growth of 88.0%. In 2010, the grid-connected scale ranked second in the world. Solar power generation has just started, with an installed capacity of about 860,000 kw.

In 2010, the above-mentioned clean and low-carbon energy generation reached 83 million kwh (including biomass), accounting for 19.6% of the total power generation; The installed capacity of clean and low-carbon energy reached 261 million kw (including biomass), accounting for 26.9% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with 2005, because the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" began to vigorously develop wind power, its proportion of the total installed capacity increased by 3 percentage points on the basis of 2005, as shown in the figure below.