Data analysis of power generation structure transformation from "eleventh Five-Year Plan" to "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"

By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47.0% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding the installed capacity of coal-fired units for the first time in history.

2. "14th Five-Year Plan" forecast

The installed capacity and structure of power supply in 2025 are proposed in the "Research on China's 14th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" compiled by the Global Energy Internet Cooperation Organization, as shown in Table 3.2.1: The total installed capacity of power is 29.46 trillion kw, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan; Full-caliber power generation of 925 million kwh, an average annual growth of 3.9%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the "14th Five-Year Plan" average annual growth.

According to the forecast data of the planning report, the proportion of non-fossil energy installations in the total installed capacity will increase from 44.8% in 2020 to 57.5%, an increase of 12.7%; The proportion of non-fossil energy generation in total power generation will increase from 33.9% in 2020 to 44.8%, an increase of 10.9%.

According to the forecast data of the planning report, the installed capacity and power generation structure of the five major types of non-fossil energy in 2025 are shown in the figure below, and the proportion of installed capacity is sorted as follows: solar 33%, wind 32%, hydropower 27%, nuclear 4.3% and biomass 3.8%; The proportion of power generation is: hydropower 36%, wind 25%, solar 21%, nuclear 12%, biomass 6%.

Iv. Summary and analysis

1. Power structure transformation: the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the total installed capacity has increased year by year since the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, with a continuous cumulative increase of 22.3% to reach 47.0% by 2021; The forecast for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will increase by 12.7% to 57.5%.

Among them:

The proportion of hydropower installed capacity decreased from 93.7% in 2005 to 35.0% in 2021, and is forecast to be 27.2% in 2025.

The proportion of nuclear power installed capacity decreased from 5.4% in 2005 to 4.8% in 2021 and is forecast to reach 4.3% in 2025.

The proportion of wind power installed capacity increased from 1.0% in 2005 to 29.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 31.7% in 2025.

The proportion of solar installed capacity increased from 0.3% in 2010 to 27.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 33.1% in 2025.

The proportion of biomass installed capacity increased from 1.3% in 2010 to 3.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 3.8% in 2025.

2. Optimization of power generation structure: The proportion of non-fossil energy generation in total power generation has increased since 2012 of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, with a continuous cumulative increase of 16.5% to 34.6% by 2021; The forecast for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will increase by 10.9% to 44.8%.