Data analysis of power generation structure transformation from "eleventh Five-Year Plan" to "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"



1. Steady growth in electricity production

1. Power generation trend

In 2021, the full-caliber power generation of 8.38 trillion kwh, an increase of 9.8%, and the power generation of 4.23 trillion kwh at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010, nearly doubled. The trend of full-caliber power generation from 2010 to 2021 is shown in the figure below.

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of full-bore power generation was 6.3%, 2011 continued the "11th Five-Year Plan" high growth rate, and began to slow down in 2012, 2015 by the impact of the year-on-year growth rate of light industry and heavy industry power consumption, power generation growth declined significantly, thermal power generation since the reform and opening up the first annual negative growth.

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth of full-caliber power generation was 5.9%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than the average annual growth of the "12th Five-Year Plan". In the first three years of the 13th Five-Year Plan, power generation growth was high, the growth rate slowed down slightly in 2019, and it further slowed down in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, and it began to recover in 2021.

2, power generation installed trend

By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation reached 2.38 billion kw, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, and a total increase of 146% compared with 970 million kw at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010. The installed capacity of the main power generation types is: thermal power 1.30 billion kw(including coal 1.12 billion kw), hydropower 390 million kw(including pumped storage 36.39 million kw), nuclear power 53.26 million kw, wind power 330 million kw(including offshore wind power 26.39 million kw), solar power 310 million kw(including distributed 110 million kw). The trend of national full-caliber power generation capacity from 2010 to 2021 is shown in the figure below.

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation increased by an average annual rate of 9.6%, which was 3.6 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the "11th Five-Year Plan".

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of full-caliber power generation capacity was 7.6%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the "12th Five-Year Plan".

Generally speaking, after more than 30 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, due to the continuous expansion of the total scale of China's economy, the economic development speed after the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" has slowed down, and the development speed of the power generation industry has also slowed down.

Second, the power transformation trend is obvious

1. Development achievements of the 11th Five-Year Plan

Since the founding of our country, the power supply mainly depends on thermal power, followed by hydropower; Nuclear power and wind power started in the mid-1980s; Biomass and solar power generation began to develop during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. According to the national energy development "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" report, the achievements of the power generation industry during the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" period are mainly reflected in the protection of power supply, the development of clean energy and the implementation of energy conservation and environmental protection, which has laid a strong foundation for the development of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".

(1) Ensuring power supply capacity. At the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2010, the total installed capacity of full-caliber power generation nearly doubled from the end of the fifth Five-Year Plan in 2005, reaching 970 million kw, ranking second in the world, with an average annual growth of 13.2%. Among them, the thermal power installed capacity reached 710 million kw (including 3.41 million kw biomass), an average annual growth of 12.7%, accounting for 73.5% of the total installed capacity, has been the most important power supply to ensure power supply in China.

2) Increase the proportion of clean energy. In 2010, the installed capacity of hydropower reached 220 million kw, ranking first in the world, with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%, and its growth rate is on par with that of thermal power. The installed capacity of nuclear power was 10.82 million kw, an annual increase of 9.6%; The installed capacity of wind power was about 30 million kw (only 1.26 million kw in 2005), with an average annual growth of 88.0%. In 2010, the grid-connected scale ranked second in the world. Solar power generation has just started, with an installed capacity of about 860,000 kw.

In 2010, the above-mentioned clean and low-carbon energy generation reached 83 million kwh (including biomass), accounting for 19.6% of the total power generation; The installed capacity of clean and low-carbon energy reached 261 million kw (including biomass), accounting for 26.9% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with 2005, because the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" began to vigorously develop wind power, its proportion of the total installed capacity increased by 3 percentage points on the basis of 2005, as shown in the figure below.

3) Implementing measures for energy conservation and environmental protection. The power industry implemented the "big pressure on the small", the standard coal consumption per unit of thermal power supply decreased by 37 grams, and the proportion of desulfurization units continued to increase.

2. "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" analysis

China's energy development "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" clearly put forward the goal of "optimizing the energy structure" : the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption increased to 11.4%, the total installed power capacity reached 1.49 billion kw, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy reached 451 million kw (excluding biomass), accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity. The share of natural gas in primary energy consumption will be raised to 7.5%, and the share of coal consumption will be reduced to about 65%. In order to achieve the "12th Five-Year" goal, the power generation industry has accelerated the transformation of the energy structure.

Looking at the basic data of the power industry in the past 10 years, the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has ushered in an inflection point where the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation has climbed. In 2011, the total power generation reached 473 million kwh, of which thermal power generation reached 390 million kwh, accounting for 82.0% of the total power generation (excluding biomass), and non-fossil energy generation reached 85 million kwh, accounting for 18.0% of the total power generation (including biomass), taking this as a turning point. In the past 10 years, the proportion of non-fossil energy generation has increased year by year.

By the end of the "12th Five-Year Plan" in 2015, the total power generation of all caliber reached 574 million kwh, an average annual increase of 6.3% compared with the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" in 2010. When the full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation reached 156 million kw, it nearly doubled compared with 2010, with an average annual growth of 13.6%, accounting for 27.2% of the total power generation, an increase of 7.7% over 2010, compared with the low point in 2011, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation increased by 9.2% in the four years after the 12th Five-Year Plan.

By the end of the "12th Five-Year Plan" in 2015, the total installed capacity of full-caliber power was 1.53 billion kw, an annual increase of 9.6% compared with the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" in 2010, and the increase was 3.7% lower than the "11th Five-Year Plan". Full-caliber non-fossil energy installed capacity completed 530 million kw (including 10.41 million kw biomass), an average annual growth of 15.2%, accounting for 34.8% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 7.8% compared with 2010. Both the total installed power capacity and the proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity exceeded the targets set out in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

Note: The data in the figure comes from China Electric Union, and non-fossil energy mainly includes power generation types: hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power and biomass power generation.

3. Analysis of the 13th Five-Year Plan

China's energy development "13th Five-Year Plan" put forward the basic principle of "clean and low-carbon, green development", requiring the development of clean and low-carbon energy as the main direction of adjusting the energy structure, adhere to the development of non-fossil energy and clean and efficient use of fossil energy simultaneously. We will gradually reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy consumption, significantly reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions and the level of pollutant emissions, optimize the distribution and structure of energy production, and promote ecological progress.

The plan determines the main target indicators of the power generation industry: the total installed power capacity reaches 2 billion kw, an average annual growth of 5.5%, the installed power capacity of non-fossil energy reaches 39%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy generation reaches 31%.

By the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" in 2020, the total power generation of all caliber will be 763 million kwh, with an average annual growth of 5.8%, of which, when the power generation of non-fossil energy completes 258 million kw, the average annual growth rate will be 10.6%, accounting for 33.9% of the total power generation, exceeding the "13th Five-Year Plan" target by 2.9 percentage points. Compared with the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" in 2010, an increase of 6.7 percentage points, an average annual increase of 1.3 percentage points.

By the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the total installed power capacity will be 2.20 billion kw, exceeding the target of the "13th Five-Year Plan" by 200 million kw, with an average annual growth of 7.6%; The installed capacity of non-fossil energy completed 986 million kw, with an average annual growth of 13.2%, accounting for 44.8% of the total installed capacity, exceeding the target of the 13th Five-Year Plan by 5.8 percentage points.

4, power structure transformation contribution analysis

In order to unify the analytical caliber, the types of power generation mentioned in this paper are divided into five types according to the energy used: thermal power generation (using combustion fuel), hydroelectric power generation (using water energy), nuclear power generation (using nuclear fuel), wind power generation (using wind energy), and solar power generation (using solar energy). According to the nature of the fuel used, thermal power plants are divided into four types: coal-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, biomass power generation (including garbage power generation).

The above types of power generation (using abbreviation) are classified into five types according to non-fossil energy sources, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar energy and biomass; According to the classification of fossil energy including coal, oil, gas three types. Below we mainly analyze the transformation contribution of five types of non-fossil energy.

(1) Changes in installed structure: The installed capacity of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power and biomass in 2010, 2015 and 2020 and their proportion in the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy are shown in the figure below.

According to the data in the figure, the overall growth level of installed capacity of each type of power generation during 2011-2020 can be calculated: the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 5.5%, and the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 8.1% and 3.0%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of nuclear power is 16.5%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 20.2% and 12.9%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of wind power is 25.3%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 34.6% and 16.6% respectively. The average annual growth rate of solar power generation is 76.6%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 117.8% and 43.2%, respectively. Biomass power generation has an average annual growth of 24.2%, and its five-year plan has an average annual growth of 25.0% and 23.5%, respectively.

(2) Changes in power generation structure: In 2010, 2015, 2020, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biomass five types of power generation and their proportion in the total power generation of non-fossil energy are shown in the figure below.

According to the data in the figure, the overall growth level of power generation of various power generation types during 2011-2020 can be calculated: the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 7.0%, and the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 10.1% and 4.0%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of nuclear power is 17.2%, and the average annual growth rate of the first and second five-year plans is 18.0% and 16.4%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of wind power is 25.2%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 30.3% and 20.2% respectively. The average annual growth rate of solar power generation is 119.6%, and the average annual growth rate of the previous five years is 230.6% and 45.9%, respectively. Biomass power generation has an average annual growth rate of 23.7%, and its five-year plan has an average annual growth rate of 27.3% and 20.3%, respectively.

(3) Contribution analysis:

Installed capacity contribution: From the perspective of the average annual growth rate of installed capacity during 2011-2020, the above five types are sorted: solar 76.6%, wind power 25.3%, biomass 24.2%, nuclear power 16.5%, hydropower 5.5%. However, from the perspective of the proportion of installed capacity in the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy, taking 2020 as an example, its ranking is: hydropower 37%, wind power 29%, solar energy 26%, nuclear power 5%, biomass 3%.

Power generation contribution: From the annual average growth rate of power generation during 2011-2020, the ranking of the above five types is: solar 119.6%, wind power 25.2%, biomass 23.7%, nuclear power 17.2%, hydropower 7.0%. However, from the perspective of the proportion of electricity generation in the total power generation of non-fossil energy, taking 2020 as an example, its order is: hydropower 53%, wind power 18%, nuclear power 14%, solar energy 10%, biomass 5%.

Third, the "14th Five-Year Plan" outlook

1. Development performance in 2021

In 2021, full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation reached 2.89 trillion kwh, an increase of 12.0%, accounting for 34.6% of the total power generation, an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Thermal power generation after deducting biomass power generation accounted for 65.4% of the total power generation of the whole caliber. After deducting the power generation of gas and oil, the coal-fired power generation reached 5.03 trillion kwh, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, accounting for 60.0% of the total power generation of the whole caliber, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year.

By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47.0% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding the installed capacity of coal-fired units for the first time in history.

2. "14th Five-Year Plan" forecast

The installed capacity and structure of power supply in 2025 are proposed in the "Research on China's 14th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" compiled by the Global Energy Internet Cooperation Organization, as shown in Table 3.2.1: The total installed capacity of power is 29.46 trillion kw, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan; Full-caliber power generation of 925 million kwh, an average annual growth of 3.9%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the "14th Five-Year Plan" average annual growth.

According to the forecast data of the planning report, the proportion of non-fossil energy installations in the total installed capacity will increase from 44.8% in 2020 to 57.5%, an increase of 12.7%; The proportion of non-fossil energy generation in total power generation will increase from 33.9% in 2020 to 44.8%, an increase of 10.9%.

According to the forecast data of the planning report, the installed capacity and power generation structure of the five major types of non-fossil energy in 2025 are shown in the figure below, and the proportion of installed capacity is sorted as follows: solar 33%, wind 32%, hydropower 27%, nuclear 4.3% and biomass 3.8%; The proportion of power generation is: hydropower 36%, wind 25%, solar 21%, nuclear 12%, biomass 6%.

Iv. Summary and analysis

1. Power structure transformation: the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the total installed capacity has increased year by year since the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, with a continuous cumulative increase of 22.3% to reach 47.0% by 2021; The forecast for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will increase by 12.7% to 57.5%.

Among them:

The proportion of hydropower installed capacity decreased from 93.7% in 2005 to 35.0% in 2021, and is forecast to be 27.2% in 2025.

The proportion of nuclear power installed capacity decreased from 5.4% in 2005 to 4.8% in 2021 and is forecast to reach 4.3% in 2025.

The proportion of wind power installed capacity increased from 1.0% in 2005 to 29.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 31.7% in 2025.

The proportion of solar installed capacity increased from 0.3% in 2010 to 27.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 33.1% in 2025.

The proportion of biomass installed capacity increased from 1.3% in 2010 to 3.4% in 2021, and is forecast to be 3.8% in 2025.

2. Optimization of power generation structure: The proportion of non-fossil energy generation in total power generation has increased since 2012 of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, with a continuous cumulative increase of 16.5% to 34.6% by 2021; The forecast for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will increase by 10.9% to 44.8%.