The development status of China's shipping industry in 2023, the shipping industry has been in a new cycle of recovery

4. The demand for offshore oil and gas equipment has expanded, and the "destocking" has achieved remarkable results

In 2022, the high volatility of international oil prices, Brent international crude oil spot prices once climbed to 139 US dollars/barrel, a new high since the financial crisis, led to the expansion of global offshore oil and gas equipment market demand, domestic offshore engineering equipment enterprises to seize the opportunity, "destocking" achieved positive results.

5. Seize the favorable market opportunity, and the industry efficiency has improved

In 2022, the market environment factors of the shipbuilding industry have generally shown favorable changes. The Clarkson new ship price Composite Index was 162 points, up 4.5% for the year, and the average price of new ships such as large container ships, car carriers, and large LNG carriers rose by more than 10%. The price of 6mm and 20mm Marine steel plate is more than 1000 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year; The central parity rate of the RMB was devalued by 9.23% against the US dollar. At the same time, ship enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency by strengthening the plan management of shipbuilding nodes, implementing intelligent transformation of production lines, and strengthening cost management.

6. New ship prices are rising at a slower pace and diverging trend

The price of this round of new ships began to rise in December 2020, and the increase rate and speed in 2021 were very fast, but the growth rate slowed down significantly and differentiated in 2022. From the Clarkson new ship price composite index, the increase in 2021 is 21%, and the increase in 2022 is only 5%, and the trend differentiation of subdivision ship types is obvious.

At present, the scale of China's shipbuilding industry continues to grow, and the three major indicators of China's shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders remain the world's leading. The capacity structure adjustment of China's shipbuilding industry has achieved results, and the shipbuilding industry is constantly expanding its industrial scale. With the trend of recovery of the international ship market, the industrial concentration of China's ship industry has maintained a high level, and the backbone ship repair enterprises have accelerated the development of high-end green products, green processes, and decarbonization technologies, and accelerated the practical application of information, digitalization and artificial intelligence technologies.

Affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and associated sanctions, regional trade growth and other geopolitical and macro environment changes, the world shipping market is also undergoing structural changes, for the use of Europe (Black Sea/Mediterranean Sea and other routes) and Russian ports more used Suez, Afra and other ship types hot demand; More flexible small and medium-sized container ships, refined oil tanker/chemical tanker and other ship types are also relatively considerable. The average age of the above ship type fleet is about 12 years, which is significantly higher than the large ships of similar ships. In the future, with the arrival of more capacity demand transformation and environmental protection replacement superposition, it will inject greater impetus into the new shipbuilding market. In 2022, the market size of China's shipping industry will be 344.356 billion yuan.

In the past two years, with the substantial growth of new ship orders, the demand for ship supporting equipment has significantly increased, and the capacity of ship distributing enterprises is difficult to rapidly improve in a short time, and the phenomenon of product price rise and supply delay is more common. In addition, due to the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the production cycle of supporting equipment, logistics costs and transportation cycles have generally increased. The supply of some imported supporting equipment is more tight, the average arrival cycle of ship communication, navigation, automatic control system, electronic and electrical equipment is 1-3 months longer than normal, and the arrival cycle of ship chip, crankshaft, piston ring and control system is 3-6 months longer than normal.

In 2022, the number of ship orders in hand in China has once again exceeded 100 million deadweight tons after 6 years, and the average production guarantee coefficient of ship enterprises (the average number of orders in hand/the average amount of completion in the past three years) is about 2.7 years, and the shipping date of some enterprises has been scheduled to 2026. At present, the production tasks of ship enterprises are full, especially with the rapid growth of high-tech ship orders, the demand for skilled labor is greater. In recent years, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, there has been a large loss of migrant workers in shipping enterprises, and recently due to the increase in the number of infections, the staff attendance rate has decreased significantly, which has exacerbated the labor tension. The contradiction between full production tasks and insufficient labor supply of shipping enterprises has further expanded, and the problem of the stability of labor force has become more prominent.