Market status, competition pattern and development trend of China paper industry in 2021

1, paper industry chain industry span, market capacity can not be underestimated

Papermaking refers to the processing of plant fibers into pulp by mechanical, chemical or a combination of both methods; Then the process of mixing the pulp and its additives to make paper products by hand or machine manufacturing. The industry engaged in the production of paper products is called "pulp and paper industry", referred to as "paper industry".

The paper industry chain from upstream to downstream can be divided into: raw materials and pulp equipment, paper manufacturing and paper applications.

China is a large country of pulp consumption, pulp manufacturing industry development has a long history, the industrial technology is more mature, there are more than 20,000 pulp manufacturing enterprises in the country, the upstream of the paper industry tends to complete competition, the paper industry in the raw material link has full bargaining power;

Compared with the pulp manufacturing industry, the number of enterprises in China's paper industry is small, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, there are about 2,500 paper and cardboard production enterprises in the country, the industry concentration is low, and the product quality is different.

In the period of continuous industrial cluster development of paper industry enterprises, there are many leading enterprises in the paper industry extending up and down the industrial chain, forming a waste paper recycling - pulp manufacturing - paper industry chain layout, such as Shanying Paper, Nine Dragons Paper and so on.

2, the fluctuation of China's pulp consumption waste pulp consumption occupies the mainstream

The upstream raw materials of China's paper industry are mainly pulp, according to the "China Paper Industry 2019 Annual Report" issued by the China Paper Association, 2010-2019, China's pulp production has fluctuated, due to the advancement of digitalization and paperless, there are more alternatives in the downstream market of pulp, and the output of pulp has been declining overall in recent years. In 2018, China's pulp production fell by 9.41% year-on-year. In 2019, China's pulp production was basically the same as that of 2018, at 72.07 million tons. By 2020, China's pulp production reached 73.78 million tons, an increase of 2.4%.

The pulp produced in China can be divided into wood pulp, waste pulp and non-wood pulp (reed pulp, bagasse pulp, bamboo pulp, rice straw pulp, etc.). Among them, waste pulp is the main type of pulp produced in China. In 2019, China's waste pulp production reached 53.51 million tons, accounting for 74.25% of the total pulp production.

In addition, according to the changes in the production of various types of pulp, from 2010 to 2019, the proportion of non-wood pulp production in China continues to decline, and its output share is mainly replaced by wood pulp, the main reason is that the strength and toughness of paper products produced by non-wood pulp are low, and people are more willing to choose wood pulp products in today's increasingly improved living standards.

In terms of pulp consumption, the overall consumption of pulp in China is on the rise, and the overall consumption has reached 100 million tons. In 2018, affected by the stricter environmental protection policies, the output of China's paper industry declined, and the consumption of pulp also showed a certain weakening, and the consumption of pulp in China decreased by 6.61% compared with the same period last year. In 2019, China's pulp consumption reached 96.06 million tons, an increase of 2.36% over 2018.

From the perspective of pulp consumption structure, during 2018-2019, the proportion of wood pulp consumption in China increased, while the proportion of non-wood pulp and domestic waste pulp consumption decreased. In 2019, China's waste pulp consumption was 54.43 million tons, accounting for 57% of the pulp consumption. China's domestic wood pulp consumption is 35.81 million tons, accounting for 37% of domestic pulp consumption.

3, China's paper industry overall overcapacity supply and demand show fluctuations

According to the statistics of the China Paper Association, since 2014, China's paper and paperboard production has shown an overall upward trend, and the growth rate has remained at a low level. In 2017, China's paper and cardboard production exceeded 11 million tons for the first time, hitting a record high. In 2018, affected by the downturn in the industry, the overall production declined slightly, and by 2019, China's paper and cardboard production has rebounded, with a cumulative output of 107.65 million tons, an increase of 3.16%.

Paper and cardboard consumption, according to the statistics of the China Paper Association, since 2014, China's paper and cardboard production has shown an overall upward trend, and the growth rate has remained at a low level. In 2017, China's paper and cardboard consumption exceeded 11 million tons, a record high.

In 2019, China's paper and cardboard consumption was 107.04 million tons, an increase of 2.54% over 2018, and the per capita annual consumption was 75 kg. On the whole, the industry consumption is slightly less than the output, showing a situation of oversupply.

From the perspective of the production structure of subdivided products, the main products of paper and cardboard are: the production of uncoated writing paper accounts for 16.54% of the total production of paper and cardboard, the production of box board accounts for 20.34% of the total production of paper and cardboard, the production of corrugated base paper accounts for 20.62% of the total production of paper and cardboard, and the output of newsprint, special paper and cardboard is relatively small.

From the consumption point of view, the consumption structure of the main products of paper and cardboard is similar to the output structure: The consumption of uncoated writing paper accounted for 16.34% of the total consumption of paper and board, the consumption of box board accounted for 22.45% of the total consumption of paper and board, the consumption of corrugated base paper accounted for 22.18% of the total consumption of paper and board, and the consumption of newsprint, special paper and board was still small.

4. Enterprises with low concentration in China's paper industry are mainly distributed in the eastern region

According to the "China Paper Industry 2019 Annual Report" released by the China Paper Association, the output of China's paper industry products in 2019 is mainly concentrated in the eastern region. In 2019, 17 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangxi, Hebei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Tianjin, Hainan and Liaoning produced more than 1 million tons of paper and paperboard, with a total output of 104.12 million tons, accounting for 96.72% of the total output of paper and paperboard in the country. The output of Guangdong Province and Shandong Province reached 18.64 million tons and 18.3 million tons, accounting for 17.32% and 17.00% respectively.

China's main paper enterprises include Nine Dragons Paper, Liwen Paper, Shandong Chenming and so on, among which Nine Dragons Paper has the largest output of more than 15 million tons, far ahead of other key paper enterprises.

From the perspective of the overall production and sales data of the industry, after the environmental protection policy to reduce capacity since 2010, the CR10 of the paper industry has gradually increased from 28.7% in 2012 to 45.7% in 2019, and the US paper industry has reached about 90% after experiencing environmental protection legislation to reduce capacity and industry mergers and acquisitions. From this point of view, the concentration of China's paper industry is still low.

5. Analysis of the development trend of China's paper industry

At present, although China's paper industry is still facing the problem of oversupply and low industry concentration, it is still accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure. In the future, China's paper industry will pay more attention to quality. Pay more attention to technological innovation in the industry, and enterprises will continue to go abroad and go international. Overall, the overall development prospects of China's paper industry are good.