Pulp futures

Introduction of pulp concept and industry chain

Pulp is the main raw material of the paper industry, which belongs to the upstream of the entire paper industry, and the paper industry is a typical long chain, heavy assets, and a long cycle industry with diverse needs: the typical paper industry chain is "forest-pulp-papermaking - all kinds of paper downstream". Among them, the cultivation of rapid growth forest for pulping requires reserve forest land and cultivation, and the maturity cycle of trees is longer, requiring at least 5 years to be harvested for production. The production of pulp and machine-made paper needs to purchase large paper making equipment and supporting production capacity, the cycle is about 2-3 years; The growth rate of all types of downstream demand has slowed down after experiencing China's high-speed growth stage, and cyclicality is gradually replacing growth.

According to the national economic industry classification standard, the paper industry mainly refers to the paper and paper products manufacturing industry, including pulp manufacturing industry, paper industry, paper products manufacturing industry three links; Therefore, the paper industry is highly related to some basic industries, such as forestry, agriculture, printing, packaging, machinery manufacturing, chemical industry, environmental protection and so on. In general, the paper industry has the characteristics of intensive technology capital, significant economies of scale, high resource dependence and consumption, and relatively dispersed industry concentration.

1.1. Paper pulp

paper pulp (paper pulp; pulp is a fibrous substance made from plant fiber by destroying lignin through different processing methods. The plants commonly used as raw materials for pulping can be divided into four categories: stem fibers, bast fibers, seed wool fibers and wood fibers. Among them, wood fiber is the most important. At present, China's wood resources can not meet the needs of the growing pulp and paper industry. In order to make up for the shortage of raw materials, a considerable amount of pulp is imported from abroad every year.

Pulp is generally used to make paper and board. In addition to the manufacture of special paper, refined pulp is often used as a raw material for the manufacture of cellulose esters, cellulose ethers and other cellulose derivatives. It is also used in artificial fibers, plastics (8070, 35.00, 0.44%), coatings, film, gunpowder and other fields.

1.1.1. Source of raw materials 1.1.1. Raw material source

Pulp is mainly divided into wood pulp, waste pulp and non-wood pulp. Wood pulp is divided into broadleaf pulp (including birch, poplar, linden, eucalyptus, maple and other species of wood pulp) and coniferous pulp (including masson pine, larch, red pine, spruce and other species of wood pulp), broadleaf trees are also known as angiosperms, hardwood, deciduous trees or evergreen trees, coniferous trees commonly known as gymnosperms or softwood, generally coniferous pulp has stronger toughness and extensibility than broadleaf pulp, Therefore, in the use of wood pulp, a certain proportion of coniferous pulp is usually added to enhance the toughness of paper.

Waste pulp is the paper pulp that is sorted and screened after the waste paper is recycled, soaked with warm water, and then repulped for reuse.

There are three main types of non-wood pulp: grass fiber pulp (such as straw, wheatgrass, reed, bamboo, bagasse, etc.), bast fiber pulp (such as hemp, kenaf, flax, mulberry bark, cotton stalk bark, etc.) and seed wool fiber pulp (such as cotton fiber, etc.).

1.1.2. Process classification

Pulp according to the processing technology is divided into mechanical pulping, chemical pulping, semi-chemical pulping. Mechanical pulping refers to the method of making pulp from fiber raw materials (mainly wood) by simply using mechanical grinding, and its products are collectively referred to as mechanical pulp; Chemical pulping refers to the method of making pulp by treating raw materials with chemical agents, and its products are collectively referred to as chemical pulp; Semi-chemical pulping (also known as chemical mechanical pulping) refers to the pulping method using chemical pretreatment and mechanical grinding after treatment, and its products are collectively referred to as chemical pulp (CMP).

In addition, pulp according to the degree of processing is divided into refined pulp, bleached pulp, semi-bleached pulp and this color paste, such a classification standard is mainly the degree of bleaching of pulp, different whiteness of pulp is also used in different paper industry because of its different properties, such as bleached sulfate wood pulp can be used to manufacture advanced printing paper, painting newspaper, offset paper and writing paper. This color paste is mainly used for making medium printing paper, thin wrapping paper, translucent paper and greaseproof paper.

1.2. (Bleached needle pulp) Pulping Process 1.2. (needle pulp) pulping process

The chemical pulping method is adopted for the bleached needle pulp, and its industrial manufacturing process mainly includes raw material storage and chipping, cooking, washing, screening, bleaching, drying, slicing and packing. In the specific manufacturing process, the whole tree log is first taken, peeled and cut into smaller wood chips, and the qualified wood chips are cooked with sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and sodium sulfide (Na2S) solution for 1 to 2 hours. Depending on the concentration of active chemical components, the cooking liquid may be partially recovered to improve efficiency. The cooking process removes the lignin, breaking down the wood into cellulose fibers. The coarse pulp after cooking is washed by the pulp washing machine, and the large debris is removed by the pulp screening machine to obtain the fine pulp. After the fine pulp is bleached and concentrated in several stages, the wet pulp board is made and sent to the dryer for drying. Finally, after slicing and packaging, the resulting pulp can be delivered in the form of pulp packaging.

The process of dispersing papermaking raw materials into a single fiber is called pulping, and the product obtained is called pulp; The purpose of pulping is to dissolve the lignin in the raw material, separate the raw material into a single fiber, and increase the specific surface area of the fiber (the surface area of the fiber per unit weight).

Chemical pulping is mainly divided into acid pulping and alkali pulping. Alkali pulping process mainly through SH-, OH- plasma and lignin nucleophilic reaction, the ether bond of macromolecules of lignin is broken, the macromolecules become small molecules, and the lyophilic phenolic hydroxyl group is increased, the lyophilic lignin is enhanced, and the lignin is dissolved from the wood chips. The acid pulping process is mainly through S032- or HS03- and lignin nucleophilic reaction, lignin sulfonic acid, lignin sulfonic acid combined with the salt base in the solution, the formation of lignin sulfonate, dissolved from the wood chips.

1.3. Paper industry

Papermaking is the dispersion of the resulting pulp to obtain evenly interwoven sheets. Paper products are usually divided into cultural paper, wrapping paper, household paper, and special paper according to the use of finished products: (1) Cultural paper covers all printing and writing paper, including newsprint, uncoated cultural paper (double-adhesive paper, writing paper, lightweight paper, electrostatic copy paper, etc.) and coated cultural paper (mainly coated paper); (2) Packaging paper covers all paper packaging raw materials, including cardboard (white board paper, white cardboard, corrugated paper, box board paper, kraft paper, etc.); (3) Household paper (toilet paper, diapers, etc.); (4) Special paper.

Cultural paper refers to the writing and printing paper used for disseminating cultural knowledge, which is mostly used for information transmission and cultural inheritance, mainly including uncoated printing paper, coated printing paper and newsprint. Typical uncoated printing paper includes duplex paper, writing paper, lightweight paper, SC paper, xerographic paper and printer paper. Coated printing paper mainly includes light-weight coated paper and coated paper, among which coated paper consumption accounts for more than 90% of coated cultural paper.

Packaging paper is a general term for a class of paper used for packaging purposes, which is generally used for the outer packaging of downstream household appliances, daily chemicals, food and beverage, cigarettes and other industry products. The main types of wrapping paper include corrugated paper, box board paper, whiteboard paper and white cardboard. Among them, box board paper and corrugated paper are mostly used in the fields of home appliance packaging and daily chemical packaging, and white board paper and white cardboard are often used for packaging cigarettes, food, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.

Global supply and demand of pulp

2.1. Global pulp production and sales

Since 2011, global pulp production has experienced a process of decline - stagnation - and then growth. As of 2016, global pulp production reached 185 million tons (excluding waste pulp), an increase of 1%, continuing the positive growth rate since 2015. The change in demand is basically in line with the change in production, but it only returned to positive growth after 2016. Overall, the development of the global pulp industry tends to be stable.

In terms of the supply pattern of pulp, the Americas, Europe and Asia are the three regions with the largest output of pulp, with the output of 93.46 million tons (50.3%), 46.269 million tons (24.9%) and 41.27 million tons (22.2%) respectively in 2016. From a national point of view, the top five countries are the United States, Brazil, Canada, China and Sweden, whose 2016 pulp production was 48.76 million tons, 18.835 million tons, 16.59 million tons, 15.964 million tons, 110.35 million tons, the five countries accounted for 61.2% of the global pulp production.

2.2. Global pulp trade

The global pulp trade is basically from the Americas to Europe and Asia. Public data show that in 2015, the global pulp trade volume reached 53.823 million tons, of which Latin America, North America net exports total 25.846 million tons, Asia is the largest pulp net import region, net imports of 21.92 million tons.

Countries do not look at Brazil, Canada is the main exporters, the United States import, export volume are larger, and the largest importer is China, its 2017 imports of wood pulp reached 21.12 million tons, an increase of 12%, higher than the growth rate of about 5 percentage points in 2016.

Global paper product production distribution

The paper industry is known as "never failing" industry. The United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada and other major developed countries in the world have developed paper industry, and have long been among the top ten papermaking countries. For example, among the world's top 10 paper and cardboard producers in 2016, except for China, India, Brazil and Indonesia, the other six countries are economically developed countries; The paper and paperboard production of the above six countries accounts for 39.96% of the world's total output.

The product structure of the global market has differentiated, and the focus of production has shifted to box board paper, corrugated base paper and life paper. The product structure of the global market has differentiated, and the focus of production has shifted to box board paper, corrugated base paper and life paper.

The trend of paperless has had a huge impact on the global newsprint and printed writing paper market, resulting in the closure of a large number of paper enterprises and a continuous decline in production. At the same time, the market size of wrapping paper and life paper has grown rapidly, becoming the only two areas in the paper industry that are on the rise.

Fourth, the supply and demand of domestic pulp

According to the survey of the China Paper Association, the total production of pulp in 2017 was 79.49 million tons, an increase of 0.30% over the previous year. Among them: 10.5 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of 4.48%; Waste pulp was 42.39 million tons, an increase of 5.42% over the previous year; Non-wood pulp 5.97 million tons, an increase of 1.02% over the previous year

From 2011 to 2017, the domestic pulp (including waste pulp) production basically remained stable, and the total pulp production decreased slightly in 2012, 2013 and 2015, and maintained a small growth in the remaining years. As of 2017, the total output of pulp (including waste pulp) was 58.86 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. In terms of consumption, except for a decline in 2013, the remaining years have maintained a small growth of about 3%.

From the perspective of pulp subdivision varieties, domestic pulp production is dominated by waste pulp, but the production and sales of waste pulp have declined since 2016, while the production and consumption of wood pulp and non-wood pulp have grown rapidly. This shows that the market demand for wood pulp and non-wood pulp is very strong. In addition, the domestic consumption of wood pulp and waste pulp is much higher than the production, indicating that the consumption of wood pulp and waste pulp is mostly dependent on imports, of which wood pulp imports show a rapid growth trend.

China's forest coverage rate is low, only 22.2%, lower than the world average of 31%. The per capita forest area is only 26% of the world's per capita level, only 0.15 hectares, ranking 146th among 233 countries and regions in the world. China's forest productivity is low, the forest stock per hectare is only 69% of the average level, the plantation stock per hectare is only 52.76 cubic meters, and the amount of depletion is huge, reaching 118 million cubic meters per year. At present, the area of China's mining forest land only accounts for 13%, and the mining stock only accounts for 23%. Due to the relative lack of wood resources caused by this resource endowment, the development of wood pulp industry is restricted from the root. Compared with the resource endowments of the countries relied on by the world's large pulp enterprises, China's overall forest coverage rate, or per capita forest area, are far lower than Finland, Russia, Brazil, Sweden, Indonesia, Canada, Chile, the world's major pulp producers, and the development of domestic wood pulp industry has obvious resource ceilings.

Compared with the situation of domestic dominance and import, China's supply of needle pulp is mainly composed of overseas imports, and the external dependence has stabilized at more than 99% in recent years.

From the perspective of the composition of importing countries, the main import source countries of bleached needle pulp are Canada, the United States, Chile, Russia, Finland and other countries, and the main import source countries of bleached pulp are Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, Chile and other countries.

The consumption of cardboard and corrugated paper is closely related to the development of the packaging industry. In recent years, the development of the domestic packaging industry has stabilized, including paper and cardboard container revenues and profits, although slightly decreased, but has occupied the largest proportion of the packaging industry, compared with the growth of other subcategories can be seen, the biggest impact by the plastic packaging industry. With the steady development of traditional fields, such as watches, jewelry, cosmetics, high-end tobacco and alcohol, health products, electronic products markets, as well as the e-commerce industry, the packaging industry will still have a broad market space.

From the perspective of regional distribution of paper industry, on the one hand, relying on port advantages to reduce the cost of imported raw materials; On the other hand, the concentration of population has also guided the layout of the paper products industry.

Six domestic pulp and related industries environmental protection policy

Papermaking is an industry with high emissions and high energy consumption. In the face of the problem of structural overcapacity in the paper industry, the state adheres to the principle of "addition and subtraction at the same time" : on the one hand, to eliminate backward production capacity as the starting point, to energy conservation and emission reduction as the starting point, a series of policies have been introduced, focusing on eliminating the backward production capacity of small scale, high energy consumption and heavy pollution in the paper industry; On the other hand, we encourage the construction of advanced production capacity with large scale, high speed and low energy consumption. Since 2015, the state has advocated supply-side reform, advocated green development, accelerated the construction of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society, and promoted economic transformation and upgrading, followed by a series of strict environmental protection policies have been introduced, and papermaking, which is a high-emission industry, bears the brunt. The relevant environmental issues are mainly as follows;

Domestic pulp price factors

The traditional off-peak season of pulp products and the downstream off-peak season of finished paper have a high degree of coincidence, and during the downstream peak season of paper products, the enthusiasm of paper mills to stock raw materials is high, and the volume of pulp market is strong. The main downstream cultural paper season is the back-to-school season and the bidding period of the publishing house, generally in February-March and August-September each year, and the paper mill in August-September (autumn bidding for raw materials required for the production of educational auxiliary materials) and October to February of the following year (spring bidding for raw materials required for the production of educational auxiliary materials). There is no obvious off-season demand for downstream household paper throughout the year, general holidays during the promotion, the shipment situation is better, the peak season in March, April and August to January of the next year; White cardboard industry off-season and household paper similar. Therefore, the traditional peak season of pulp products is from January to March and from September to December every year, and the off-season is from April to July.