Comparative analysis of China's network express industry and warehouse allocation mode in 2017



Network express delivery is the main body of e-commerce express delivery, of which network express delivery accounts for about 84%, and warehouse allocation accounts for about 16%. Previously, we have estimated that in 2016, the volume of e-commerce express delivery is about 21.5 billion pieces, the average daily order volume is 58 million pieces, and the average daily order volume of Taobao is about 33 million pieces, accounting for 57% of e-commerce express delivery, which is almost all online express delivery. Combined with the data of other e-commerce, we estimate that the average daily order volume of e-commerce express delivery in the network express mode reaches 49 million, accounting for 84% of the entire e-commerce express delivery, constituting the main body of e-commerce express delivery.

The single volume growth rate of warehouse allocation mode is higher than that of network express mode. Through the data analysis of the past three years, we estimate that in 15/16, the express volume growth rate of warehouse distribution providers is 48% and 66%, which is higher than the network express mode. On the one hand, we think that the business volume base of warehouse distribution mode is small; On the other hand, it is the increase in the number of quality consumption of consumers, the increase in the number of online shopping of online supermarkets, e-commerce self-owned and brand merchants, which stimulates the increase in the number of warehouse allocation orders.

The network express mode has a network system, while the warehouse distribution mode has a warehouse network system. In contrast, the network express system is more sound and has a wider coverage. Network express enterprises have formed a relatively dense network system, established a logistics system for the distribution of transfer centers, franchisees and terminal outlets, which basically covers county-level cities throughout the country, and the warehouse distribution network takes the warehouse as a node to build transportation channels with landing distribution enterprises, and the scale and network density are not high at present.

The warehouse allocation mode is suitable for self-operated e-commerce, the goods are standard products, the sales volume of a single product is high, and the customer has high timeliness requirements. At present, the warehouse allocation model is mainly applied to Tmall supermarket, Jingdong self-operated, Vipshop, which are typical of e-commerce self-operated. The applicable products are generally standard products, SKU single products are few, and single product sales are high, such as home appliances, 3C, and explosive goods. Due to high sales volume, high turnover, relatively low inventory cost, warehouse operation complexity is not high. Usually suitable for warehouse management, close to customers, nearby distribution to customers, customer response is high. The network express is suitable for the open third-party e-commerce platform, the goods are non-standard, the single product sales are low, and the customer's time requirements are relatively low. There are many non-standard SKUs, and the single product sales are low, such as clothing, food, daily necessities and so on. Due to low sales volume and many categories, the relative inventory cost is high and the warehouse complexity is high. It is difficult to carry out sub-warehouse management, suitable for single warehouse distribution throughout the country, and unified delivery by national network express companies.

The cost of network express delivery is much lower than the warehouse allocation cost, we believe that the main reason is that network express enterprises have the scale effect of the whole network, and the cost of warehouse allocation includes a large part of the fixed cost of warehousing, so in terms of cost, network express mode has obvious advantages. The average fulfillment cost of network express delivery is between 5-7. Between the yuan. Network express is mainly composed of different parts and the same city parts, according to the data, you can calculate the average income of network express, assuming that the gross margin of network express is 30%, you can calculate the average cost of network express, according to our calculation, the average cost of network express is between 5-7 yuan.

The order fulfillment cost of warehouse fitting is between 13-19 yuan. In 2016, Jingdong's order fulfillment cost was 20.9 billion, and the number of non-virtual orders was 1.59 billion, with an average cost of about 13.15 yuan per order. Because the total order volume includes some orders from third-party sellers who use express delivery, the actual cost of each warehouse allocation of Jingdong's self-operated orders is more than 13 yuan. Similarly, the logistics distribution of VIpshop mainly adopts the warehouse allocation mode. In 2016, the single item performance cost of Vipshop was 18.2 yuan.

Because of the short distribution distance, the time is better than the network express. Warehouse distribution through the national network, shorten the distribution distance, greatly improve the distribution time, especially to solve the double 11, double 12, and other order peak order pressure. For example, Tmall supermarket same-day delivery "and" next-day delivery "of the completion rate has been maintained at 98% to 99%. Jingdong provides "211" limited time service: order before 11 am, delivery before 11 PM; Order by 11pm and deliver by 11am the next day. The time limit of network express companies is generally 72 hours. Distribution enterprises are mainly composed of e-commerce self-operated logistics and professional third-party warehouse distribution enterprises, and the service quality is better than that of network express. According to the survey data of China E-commerce Research Center, the top three in the quality of e-commerce logistics service are Jingdong, Vipshop and Tmall, that is, Jingdong with its own logistics has the best delivery service quality, followed by Vipshop with its own logistics, and Tmall is ranked third. It can be seen that self-run warehouse pairing has an advantage in improving the quality of logistics distribution and the quality of couriers. The postal industry consumer complaint data released by the State Post Bureau can also confirm this fact, and the complaint rate of Jingdong logistics with its own warehouse is lower than that of SF Express and Tongda network express companies.

Judging the development trend of e-commerce express delivery: network express delivery is the main body, and the warehouse allocation model is growing

Network express has the advantages of covering a wide area, cheap, flexible and convenient, and will remain the main body of e-commerce express delivery in the long term, accounting for more than 80%. At present, the online express delivery enterprises represented by SF Express and Tongda have established a network covering the whole country, forming a symbiotic ecological relationship with e-commerce. The online express delivery orders generated by Taobao alone account for 56% of e-commerce express delivery. Therefore, online express delivery still has endogenous growth momentum in the long run, and maintains the dominant position of e-commerce express delivery.

The warehouse allocation mode has the advantages of strong inventory management ability, fast order batch processing speed and high timeliness, and will grow at a faster rate in the future, but it is difficult to shake the e-commerce express delivery pattern dominated by network express delivery. The increment of warehouse allocation mainly comes from two aspects: 1) Large brand merchants on the integrated B2C platform. Large brand sellers on B2C platforms will choose warehouse allocation due to increasing volume and management requirements. 2) The rapid rise of intra-city O2O. According to Roland Berger forecast, in 2015 China's city O2O market size of 356 billion yuan, by 2020, will reach 1,050.3 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 24%. At present, the domestic O2O outside to sell catering, at the same time, supermarket, flowers, cakes and other categories of distribution volume is growing rapidly, and the city's distribution mode is mainly in the form of warehouse allocation.