China shipbuilding industry in 2021 development review and future prospects

First, the development of China's shipbuilding industry in 2021

In 2021, the global economic recovery led to the recovery of the shipping market, the global maritime trade volume growth rate of more than 6% (see Figure 1), Clarkson shipping price index annual growth rate of more than 120% (see Figure 2), the container market even appeared "a box is difficult to find" rare scene. The favorable market of the shipping market is transmitted to the shipbuilding market, and a number of new shipbuilding projects suspended during the epidemic are restarted. At the same time, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS), and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) have successively introduced new green and low-carbon rules and regulations for shipping and ships. It has promoted the accelerated renewal of the old ship capacity, further stimulated the enthusiasm of shipowners for investment, and the global new ship market has "increased volume and price". Statistics from the China Shipbuilding Industry Association show that the world's new ship orders accumulated nearly 120 million deadweight tons in the year, 2.2 times that of 2020. Global monthly orders for new ships since 2020 are shown in Figure 3. The price of main ship types increased significantly, of which Capesize bulk carriers, large handybulk carriers, very large oil tankers, and 10,000 container ships increased by 30.1%, 35.4%, 29.4% and 46.9%, respectively, compared with the beginning of the year.

China's shipbuilding industry has seized the favorable opportunity of the global market recovery, overcome adverse factors such as rising steel plate prices, and the three major indicators of shipbuilding have increased significantly (see Table 1), and the market share continues to maintain the global leader (see Figure 5). It can be seen that by the end of December 2021, China's shipbuilding completed 39.01 million deadweight tons, an increase of 4.3%; Received new ship orders of 60.4 million deadweight tons, more than double that of 2020; Orders for ships were 98.43 million deadweight tons, up 36.4% year on year. The global share of shipbuilding completions, new orders received and hand-held orders was 47.6%, 51.8% and 48.3%, respectively, and the three major shipbuilding indicators all ranked first in the world. From the perspective of export ships, China completed 37.5 million deadweight tons of export ships, an increase of 9.4%, to undertake export ship orders of 57 million deadweight tons, an increase of 133.1%, and hand-held export ship orders of 85.7 million deadweight tons, an increase of 31.46%. In the country's shipbuilding completions, new orders and hand-held orders, the proportion of export ships accounted for 96.1%, 95% and 87.1% respectively.

Second, the main characteristics of the development of China's shipbuilding industry

In 2021, China's shipbuilding industry, with the support of national and local policies, seized market opportunities, continued to deepen structural adjustment, and made breakthroughs in the acceptance and delivery of high-end products, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, the coordinated development of the industrial chain, and the "integration of the two", achieving a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan".

(1) Accelerate breakthroughs in high-end green products

China's shipbuilding industry has continuously made new breakthroughs in the research and development and construction of high-tech ships and offshore engineering equipment, and multi-type green power ships have achieved batch orders. Since 2021, 23,000 TEU dual-fuel powered container ships have been delivered in bulk, the first 174,000 m3 liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating storage regasasation unit (FSRU), the world's most advanced civil hospital ship, the world's largest train special transport ship and other high-end Marine products have been delivered. 210,000 tLNG power bulk carriers, dual-fuel stainless steel chemical tankers, 7,000 vehicles dual-fuel vehicle carriers, 150,000 t Suez type ammonia fuel reserve tanker, methanol power dual-fuel MR Tanker and other green power ships to achieve batch handling. New progress has been made in the development of Marine supporting products, the world's smallest cylinder diameter Marine low-speed dual-fuel engine (Otto cycle) engine, B-type cargo tank cargo enclosure system and other products have been industrialized application, and some projects have achieved batch shipment.

(2) The concentration of shipbuilding industry remains at a high level

The COVID-19 epidemic has affected and driven a round of "immunity enhancement" in China's shipbuilding industry. Many small and medium-sized shipbuilding enterprises in China have accelerated bankruptcy, reorganization and production conversion, and superior resources have been further concentrated in large backbone shipbuilding enterprises. The concentration of the domestic shipbuilding industry has remained at a high level, the capacity utilization rate has continued to increase, and the business performance of enterprises has improved. The total amount of construction completed by the top 10 enterprises accounted for nearly 80% of the country, the top 10 enterprises with new ship orders and the top 10 enterprises with hand-held ship orders accounted for more than 75% of the country's total; The Capacity Utilization monitoring index has increased for two consecutive quarters (see figure 6). From January to November 2021, 75 key monitoring ship enterprises achieved the main business income of 269.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, and the total profit of 2.16 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1%. At the same time, the major domestic shipbuilding groups in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places, based on the existing shipbuilding capacity, through spatial replacement and other ways to gather advantageous capacity, further build characteristic ship repair bases, and promote the high-quality development of the overall industry with local capacity improvement.

(3) International competition for ship supporting facilities has intensified

Competition, especially in the case of relatively limited market demand, competition is further intensified. In the field of Marine power equipment manufacturing, for example, domestic ship main engine manufacturing enterprises face fierce competition from South Korean enterprises, in Marine low-speed engine diesel products, foreign enterprises to almost "dumping" low prices, more abundant after-sales service content to attract shipowners orders, squeezed the market share of Chinese enterprises. The "catfish effect" produced by the competition of foreign enterprises has stimulated and even strengthened the competitive consciousness of Chinese ship supporting equipment enterprises to a certain extent. While enterprises rationally use trade rules to maintain the fair competition order in the market, they have further accelerated the design and development of new technologies and improved after-sales service to cope with external competition.

(4) Speed up the development of green ship repair and maintenance

Domestic ship repair enterprises have actively improved the capacity of green ship repair, and a large number of energy-saving and environmentally friendly ship repair equipment has been put into use, which has greatly promoted the construction of China's green ship repair system and standards. At present, China's ship repair capacity is basically concentrated in the Ningbo-Zhoushan coastal area, and the vast majority of backbone ship repair enterprises have fully applied new technologies and processes such as automatic rust removal, painting robots, intelligent monitoring, digital management system, and gradually introduced industrial AR technology, drone remote detection, non-contact thickness measurement and other technologies. Further promote the transformation of ship repair to automation, integration and intelligence.

(5) Shipbuilding to accelerate the "integration of the two" development

Shipbuilding industry enterprises accelerate the deep integration of informatization and industrialization, and promote the integration and development of information technologies, including big data and artificial intelligence, with all aspects of the life cycle of ship research and development, design, construction, operation, repair and maintenance. In the major shipbuilding provinces and cities in China, backbone ship enterprises have gradually promoted the upgrading and transformation of existing shipbuilding infrastructure, made up for the shortage of high-end equipment production infrastructure, and improved the automation and digitalization level of shipbuilding processes. Shipbuilding industry enterprises have further realized the importance of the "integration of the two", especially under the impact of the epidemic, advanced production technologies in the fields of information integration and intelligent manufacturing have been widely used. The main shipbuilding bases further promote the organization of modern final assembly shipbuilding mode, comprehensively apply fine management, establish a scientific and efficient production management system, promote intelligent production lines, and strive to build a world advanced all-factor industrial base integrating final assembly integration, system modules, core supporting facilities, and production services.

6. Intensive introduction of national and local support policies

In March 2021, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of 2035 Vision Goals (referred to as the Outline) were officially released, clearly proposing to promote the innovation and development of the shipbuilding and Marine engineering equipment industry, and consolidate the competitiveness of the entire industrial chain in the shipbuilding field. We will promote the research and development and application of cruise ships, large liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels, and deep-sea oil and gas production platforms, support research in cutting-edge scientific and technological fields such as deep-sea and polar exploration, and carry out the construction of the second phase of the Dragon Sea Exploration and the second phase of the Snow Dragon Polar Exploration.

Third, some thoughts on the future development of China's shipbuilding industry

The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and Clarkson Company's latest forecast that the growth rate of the global economy and shipping market will decline in 2022, and the driving force supporting the growth of shipbuilding demand will weaken. China's major shipping companies hold full orders, shipping arrangements are tight, the future will slow down the pace of orders. From the perspective of both supply and demand, China's ship market will enter a stable development period from a sharp rebound period in 2022. In the long term, especially in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's shipbuilding industry is facing the major task of promoting high-quality development and building a shipbuilding country, and it must be clear about the development path from innovative development, green and low-carbon, comprehensive opening-up, and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises to help the sustainable and healthy development of China's shipbuilding industry.

(1) Further promote the innovative development of technology and equipment

Innovative technology and equipment is an important starting point for the high-quality development of shipbuilding industry. Technology is the driving force of industrial development, and equipment is the application carrier of technology. The purpose of innovation is not to cling to monopoly leading advantages, but to build a smooth path for technology and equipment to be promoted to a higher level and achieve greater economic development.

In March 2021, the Outline was officially released, pointing out the direction for the innovation and high-quality development of China's shipbuilding industry in the next stage. The Outline emphasizes the promotion of innovative development of the shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment industry, speeding up the layout in the green and intelligent fields, consolidating the competitiveness of the entire industrial chain in the shipbuilding field, supporting research in cutting-edge fields of science and technology such as deep sea and polar exploration, and promoting the research and development and industrial application of cruise ships, large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships and deep-sea oil and gas production platforms. After the release of the Outline, the relevant state departments and local governments have accelerated the study and formulation of relevant special plans, and implemented relevant supporting policies and supporting measures. Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian and other major Marine provinces have issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" for Marine economic development, and the shipbuilding industry has received strong support as an important part of the Marine industry. It can be predicted that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, in addition to the traditional Bohai Sea Rim, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, there are a number of regional shipbuilding industry clusters such as Zhoushan in Zhejiang Province, Beibu Gulf in Guangxi, Sanya in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas with significant regional advantages and distinct development positioning will achieve greater development.

(2) Strengthen the green and low-carbon development level of the shipbuilding industry

The development of green environmental protection and decarbonization has become the inevitable trend of the future development of the shipbuilding industry. The Outline clearly proposes to accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, further promote the low-carbon transformation of industry, transportation and other fields, and point out the direction for China's shipbuilding industry to promote green and low-carbon development.

The domestic shipbuilding industry should pay attention to both ship construction and ship use. In the process of ship construction, environmental protection materials and coatings are selected, automatic information construction equipment is used, internal management systems such as "fine management" are strengthened, engineering efficiency is improved, and construction time is shortened, so as to reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions during ship construction. In the use of ships, at present, the world's major ship power enterprises are accelerating the use of LNG, ammonia, methanol, hydrogen, electricity and other zero-carbon or low-carbon fuel ship main engine research and development and industrial application, in order to significantly reduce the carbon emissions of ships in the use process. At the same time, the development and application of smart ships and unmanned ships will reduce the crew's time on the ship and the occurrence of ship accidents (such as leaks, etc.), and also help to reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions during the use of ships.

3. Improving the level and quality of opening up of the whole industry

The comprehensive opening up of China's shipbuilding industry should not only take advantage of both domestic and foreign advantages to improve the efficiency and efficiency of "introduction, digestion and absorption", but also based on the innovation and development of its own technology and equipment, dare to export the advanced concepts and governance plans for the future development of the shipbuilding industry to the international industry, take the lead in the layout of frontier areas, and lead the development trend of the industry. Enhance the all-round and high-level supply capacity of the domestic shipbuilding industry chain, carry out forward-looking technology research and development in the aspects of ship key supporting equipment and ship materials, master the key points and power sources of technological upgrading and innovation, and constantly promote the upgrading of high-tech products. In the fields of equipment structure standards, cutting-edge maritime science and technology, market competition order, international rules and norms, we will carry out multi-level, multi-form and wide-ranging international exchanges, establish an international industrial alliance for the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the ship industry chain, expand the convergence of international interests, and give play to China's role in building an advantageous foundation for international cooperation and development. In addition, with the International Maritime Organization speeding up the legislation on environmental protection, China's "carbon peak, carbon neutral" goal puts forward new requirements for the green development of the shipbuilding industry, China's shipbuilding industry needs to accelerate the implementation of green development, actively carry out the research and development and application of green ship products and green manufacturing technology, and strive to become the world's shipbuilding industry development vane. Give full play to the responsibility of a major shipbuilding country.

(4) Supporting the development of small and medium-sized shipbuilding industry enterprises with characteristics

In China's shipbuilding industry, there are a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises covering the fields of ship repair, supporting equipment, design and research and development, and many enterprises have strong technical advantages and competitiveness. Small and medium-sized enterprises are one of the important forces for the development of the shipbuilding industry, which can not only supplement and enrich the industrial chain of the shipbuilding industry, but also help stabilize the ecological environment of the entire shipbuilding industry.

The development of specialized and differentiated small and medium-sized enterprises is of great significance for China's shipbuilding industry to grow bigger and stronger. It is necessary to combine the general trend of the development of the shipbuilding industry and the characteristics of different regional industrial layout, and carry out targeted capacity integration and optimization of existing small and medium-sized enterprises, resolutely eliminate backward and non-compliance production capacity, support the cultivation of characteristic enterprises, deeply explore advantageous areas, and help upgrade and development. It is necessary to encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to focus on the main business, practice internal skills, in-depth innovation, based on the existing advantages of the field and continue to promote professional, refined, and characteristic development, targeted development of characteristic series of products, expand product pedigree, and develop small and medium-sized enterprises into a unique "single champion" in the shipbuilding industry, and complement the surrounding large enterprises and multinational enterprises. To create a good environment for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, government departments and industry organizations should do a good job for enterprises, support enterprises to participate in national and local shipbuilding industry development strategies, and guide enterprises to carry out pragmatic international exchanges and cooperation.

(5) Vigorously develop the education and training of maritime professionals

"People" is the driving force of social and economic development. Maritime professionals largely determine the level of maritime industry development. Shipbuilding industry is the key area of maritime industry development, which needs a large number of professionals with high professional skills and hard comprehensive quality. It is necessary to speed up the establishment of a high-level, standardized and large-scale specialization in the domestic shipbuilding industry