Analysis and prospect of domestic natural gas market in 2023

Natural gas supplies are generally adequate, and spot LNG gaps are limited. Foreign natural gas import prices continue to be high, domestic natural gas production to maintain the momentum of production, is expected to 2023 annual domestic natural gas production of about 232 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.4%. The Central Asian pipeline gas exporting countries and China's Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have similar latitudes, as the weather turns cold, the demand for natural gas will gradually increase, or have an adverse impact on pipeline gas exports. Under the conditions of insufficient driving force for substantial growth of domestic natural gas demand, continuous growth of domestic gas, increased supply from China and Russia on the Eastern route, and the implementation of the long-term agreement on new LNG imports, the LNG spot gap is limited.

Gas prices will rise seasonally in the heating season, and the overall trend in the second half of the year is "first low and then high". According to the analysis of the current supply and demand forecast results, it is expected that the national natural gas supply and demand in the second half of the year is basically balanced, and the spot LNG demand may be less than the same period last year. In the heating season, the seasonal adjustment of various gas storage facilities, production, import and other links can basically guarantee the demand for gas, and the shortage of supply and demand is mainly short-term. It is expected that the average price of LNG in the country from August to October is 3900 to 4200 yuan per ton; Into the heating season gas prices rise seasonally, the national LNG factory average price is 4,700 to 5,000 yuan per ton.