An energy crisis, activate the global trillion nuclear power market



Countries adjusted their policies, and nuclear power returned to the world stage

Since 2022, countries and regions around the world have adjusted their nuclear power policies and accelerated the construction of nuclear power plants. Even some countries that abandoned nuclear weapons have reconsidered nuclear power.

Due to nuclear reactor waste disposal, nuclear leakage and other potential safety hazards, Germany, Switzerland, South Korea and other countries once abandoned the use of nuclear power, but in response to climate change, energy gap tension and other pressures, have to re-adopt active nuclear power development policies.

Britain has announced that it will build eight new nuclear power stations by 2030 and provide 25% of its electricity by 2050. South Korea is starting to restart nuclear power, starting to build new and extend the life of existing nuclear power plants and other work, hoping that nuclear power will account for 30% of total electricity generation, the Canadian plant in Ontario is also refurbishing, and announced a $56 million funding for Mortex Energy to develop small modular reactors (SMR). Poland's first nuclear power plant is expected to open in 2033, with five more expected by 2043. The Netherlands also plans to add two new nuclear power plants.

Energy chain research Institute finishing

Even Germany, long opposed to nuclear power, has extended the life of its three remaining plants until 2023. Germany is highly dependent on imports for its energy supplies and has been most affected by the conflict. According to EIA data, Germany's energy self-sufficiency rate is only 32.9%.

After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, there was once a cold climate for nuclear power, especially when the public almost talked about "nuclear" color, accounting for one-third of Japan's nuclear power, directly reduced to 10% of the proportion.

Entering 2023, Japan's power shortage situation is out of control, forcing the government for the first time in seven years to put forward winter power saving requirements, requiring the public to shut off unnecessary lighting, wear more clothes indoors, use thicker curtains and a series of power-saving measures. In Kawasaki City, Japan, Rosen Convenience Store has also launched an eco-friendly store that saves 40 percent on electricity.

In response to the energy crisis and power supply crunch, Japan's prime minister has also said that it is open to new nuclear energy projects, and in December last year, approved a plan to return to nuclear power. The plan extends the life of nuclear reactors to more than 60 years and calls for the development of more advanced reactors to replace those that are retired.

An energy crisis has brought nuclear power back to center stage.

There was also a big event late last year that reignited global enthusiasm for nuclear power. The US Department of Energy announced that its nuclear fusion experimental facility has made a major breakthrough in "output energy greater than input energy." Although the result may only be enough to boil 20 jugs of water, and is still far from commercialization, it still inspires new hope in solving the world's energy problems.

No country wants to be absent from the ultimate source of energy for sustainable development in the future.

Estimation of installed nuclear power capacity and uranium demand in China

The World Nuclear Association has predicted that global demand for uranium as a nuclear fuel will rise from 162 million pounds in 2021 to 206 million pounds in 2030 and to 292 million pounds in 2040.

At a time when the world's major economies are wavering in their attitude toward nuclear power, China's nuclear power has been firmly moving forward on the road of technology research and development and market development.

So far this year, China has approved five nuclear power projects and 10 nuclear power units, the most in nearly 14 years. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Outline of the 2035 Vision Goal, by 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will reach 70 million kilowatts.

Moreover, it is expected that between 2022 and 2025, China will maintain the approval pace of 6-8 nuclear power units per year, which is a great acceleration. By 2035, the share of nuclear power in China's total power generation will reach 10%, double that of 2021.

02 Although the scenery is good, nuclear power is a base load energy and can not be absent

Compared with solar power, which has been pursued for a long time, the development speed of nuclear power is much slower.

2022 is a big year for the development of global renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind power. In its World Energy Outlook 2022 report, the International Energy Agency predicts that the share of photovoltaic and wind power generation will increase from 10% in 2021 to 40% in 2030, and will reach 70% in 2050.

This year, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 490 million kilowatts, surpassing hydropower only one foot, even wind power installed scale is expected to reach 430 million kilowatts.

Although it is difficult to be so "beautiful" and maintain a growth rate of more than double digits, nuclear power has its own basic disk.

Nuclear power is a low-carbon, efficient and clean energy source, with carbon dioxide emissions of 12g/kWh, close to the emissions of wind energy. And nuclear power is the most efficient way of generating electricity. From 2018 to 2021, the average annual utilization hours of nuclear power in China are more than 7,000 hours, which is much higher than the utilization hours of wind power generation, which is not more than 3,000 hours. In addition, nuclear power is not affected by the season and the environment, and the economy is slightly worse than hydropower, but it is good that it is not selected geographical location.

Looking at the history of the development of nuclear power in the world, since the 1950s, nuclear power has generally experienced five stages: experimental demonstration, high-speed promotion, slow development, gradual recovery, and cautious development. If you consider the current warming trend, global nuclear power is entering a new stage of development.

Behind every cooling, it comes from the straitjacket on the head - nuclear safety accidents.

For example, after the 1980s, due to the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in the United States in 1979 and the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986, nuclear power construction in some countries was "frozen"; In 2011, Japan's Fukushima nuclear accident occurred, and poured cold water on the recovery of the world's nuclear power. Germany, Switzerland and other countries have put forward the idea of "nuclear abolition", and Japan has also proposed a "zero nuclear power" attitude.

But the technological iterations and advances of nuclear power have acted as catalysts for each accident.

In the 1980s, nuclear power suppliers in the United States and Europe together with relevant agencies successively launched the "Advanced Light water Reactor User Requirements Document" (URD) and the "European User Requirements for light water reactor nuclear power plants" (EUR), which put forward new requirements such as strengthening measures to prevent and mitigate serious accidents and improving human factors, and the concept of the third generation nuclear technology took shape. In 2016, the fourth generation of nuclear technology represented by high-temperature gas-cooled reactors emerged, and after this generation, the efficiency of nuclear fuel use has been improved, the half-life of nuclear waste has been reduced, and the safety of nuclear energy use has been improved.

Safety concerns have to do with how nuclear power works.

There are four types of nuclear reactions: nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, particle bombardment and nuclear decay, of which the fission chain reaction is the power generation principle of nuclear energy. By absorbing a neutron, the nucleus of a larger atom (uranium) will split into multiple smaller nuclei, releasing two or three neutrons and huge energy, and the newly generated neutrons continue to participate in nuclear fission, and continue to produce new energy.

In essence, it is the energy conversion process of nuclear energy - thermal energy - mechanical energy - electrical energy.

The structure of nuclear reactors is diverse, and can be divided into different types of nuclear reactors according to the distribution of neutron energy and the type of coolant. Including thermal reactor, fast reactor. If it is classified according to coolant, it can be divided into gas cooled reactor, liquid cooled reactor and liquid metal cooled reactor. Gas-cooled reactors include carbon dioxide cooling and helium cooling. Liquid cooled reactor mainly includes light water cooled pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor, and heavy water cooled heavy water reactor. The reactors cooled by liquid metal are mainly those cooled by sodium and sodium-potassium alloys.

From an international perspective, South Korea, South Africa, Russia, France, Ukraine, Finland, Belgium, the United States and other countries are more active in nuclear power, and nuclear energy has made great contributions to the carbon reduction of Western developed countries such as Europe and the United States.

In the European energy crisis, although France is the second largest energy consumer in Europe, the extent of the impact is much lower than Germany. The reason is that, unlike Germany, France is the world's second largest producer of nuclear energy after the United States. In the primary energy consumption, the share of nuclear energy is relatively high, of which 36.5% in 2021. But French nuclear power also has weaknesses: most of its 56 reactors were built 50 years ago and suffer from severe aging equipment. In recent years, almost half have been closed for maintenance.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that France will build 14 new nuclear power units from 2028 and no more existing nuclear reactors will be closed.

03 From the introduction to technology leadership, China's nuclear power triple jump

In the use of nuclear energy, China has traveled a long and tortuous road.

It took nearly 30 years from the successful detonation of the first atomic bomb to the commercial operation of the first nuclear power plant. It was not until 1984 that the first phase of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant began construction and was connected to the grid in 1991 that China really ended its history of no nuclear power.

Like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, hydrogen energy and other industries, the development of China's nuclear power technology has experienced the process of introduction, digestion and absorption, localization and substitution, and technology leadership, completing the "triple jump".

Since September 2004, the state has introduced the AP1000 technology of Westinghouse Company of the United States through public bidding, and started the construction of 4 AP1000 units, including 2 units of Zhejiang Sanmen Phase I and 2 units of Shandong Haiyang Phase I, as an autonomous experiment project, which opened the process of autonomy of China's three generations of nuclear energy technology.

While the unit construction, through the way of technology sub-licensing, to nuclear power design enterprises such as China National Nuclear Group, China General Nuclear Power Group, to Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, China first heavy equipment manufacturing field of 15 groups more than 70 units for sub-licensing, and then the third generation of nuclear power independence of CAP1400 results.

The famous "Hualong One" is the integration and innovation of ACP1000 and ACPR1000+ technology.

CAP1400 plant concept map Source: Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute

At present, "Hualong One" has built four units around the world. On November 27, 2020, the world's first reactor of Hualong One, CNNC Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit 5, was successfully connected to the grid for the first time, and was put into operation on January 30, 2021. On May 20, 2021, the first overseas reactor project of Hualong One - Karachi Unit 2 in Pakistan - was officially put into commercial operation. On January 1, 2022, CNNC Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit 6 was successfully connected to the grid for the first time. On April 18, 2022, Unit 3 in Karachi, Pakistan, passed acceptance. At this point, Hualong One's first overseas project two units have been fully completed and put into operation.

If the three generations are still running, China has completely entered the leading ranks in the fourth generation of nuclear power technology.

The fourth generation nuclear power plant has several significant characteristics, taking the high temperature gas cooled reactor as an example, in terms of safety, the spherical fuel element is used, the granular fuel element core is covered with ceramic shielding material, and the melting point of the core structural materials graphite and carbon block is above 3000°C, even under the most serious accident conditions, there will be no core meltdown accident; The core outlet temperature is high, which can meet most of the heat source needs. The power generation efficiency can reach 40-47%, which is significantly improved compared with the 33% power generation efficiency of traditional pressurized water reactors.

 Among them, 10 of the 21 units under construction use the third-generation "Hualong One", all distributed in coastal areas.

However, only two fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors have been put into operation in the world, which are located in Rongcheng City, Shandong Province, China, and Oai town, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan.

The Government Work Report for 2021 clearly states that "under the premise of ensuring safety, nuclear power should be actively and orderly developed". This is the first time in nearly a decade that China has used the word "positive" to express its attitude toward nuclear power.

Under the guidance of the policy of "active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power" determined by the state, China's nuclear power generation has jumped to the second place in the world, and the installed capacity under construction ranks first in the world.

Northeast Securities predicts that China's nuclear power market space is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025.

"China Nuclear Energy Annual Development and Outlook (2020)" mentioned that it is expected that by 2025, China's nuclear power installed capacity in operation to reach 70 million kilowatts, nuclear power installed capacity under construction to reach 30 million kilowatts, assuming the same scale of new nuclear power installed capacity every year, the annual new installed capacity of 7338 megawatts. With the construction cost per kilowatt of 12,000 to 20,000 yuan, the average annual utilization of 7800 hours, and the on-grid electricity price of 0.39 yuan/KWH, it is conservatively estimated that the market space of China's nuclear power industry will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025.

04 Nuclear power to sea, a new window of opportunity for the Belt and Road

Starting from the capital Jakarta in the north and the famous city Bandung in West Java in the south, the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway with a total length of 142 kilometers is the first high-speed railway in Indonesia and even the entire Southeast Asia region, and is also a landmark project of strategic docking and joint construction of the Belt and Road between China and Indonesia.

Just as China's high-speed rail is going abroad along the Belt and Road, China's nuclear power is being replicated along this path.

In recent years, China's independent research and development of three generations of nuclear power technology "Hualong one" has been stepped out. In addition to the K2 and K3 projects that have been completed and put into operation in Pakistan, in February last year, the UK also confirmed the use of "Hualong One" for the construction of Bradwell B nuclear power plant.

From a global perspective, only the United States, Russia, France, China, South Korea and Japan have the strength to export third-generation nuclear power units. In comparison, China has obvious advantages in terms of technical level and unit cost. In particular, the high temperature gas cooled reactor technology in the fourth generation technology ranks in the forefront of the world.

According to the China Nuclear Grid, five of the world's top 10 nuclear power plants are in China.

In terms of cost, it's like lithium. China has the most competitive battery pack cost, only $127 per kWh ($127/kWh), the United States and Europe are 24% and 33% higher than China, respectively, transmitted to the vehicle link, there is obvious manufacturing and price competitiveness.

The same is true of nuclear power.

Taking China's third-generation nuclear power unit "Hualong One" as an example, the construction cost is about 16,000 yuan/kilowatt, which is 20%-30% lower than that of foreign countries, and the cost will further decline with the subsequent mass construction and technology improvement.

At present, CNNC has reached cooperation intentions with 20 countries, including Argentina, the United Kingdom and Pakistan, and CGN has reached cooperation intentions with the Czech Republic, Romania and France. In addition, CNNC and CGN are also working with partners to explore the nuclear energy market in Europe, Central Asia and Southeast Asia.

Data show that by 2030, among the countries along the Belt and Road, more than 20 countries and regions with plans to develop nuclear power will build 107 nuclear power units, with a total of 115 million kilowatts of new nuclear power installed capacity. Apart from the Chinese market, these countries and regions account for 81.4% of the increase in the world nuclear power market.

Moreover, the nuclear power construction industry chain is long, the investment amount is high, and the spillover effect is more obvious.

According to the National Energy Administration, each export of a nuclear power unit can drive the sales of more than 60,000 sets of equipment, more than 200 enterprises on a chain can create about 150,000 jobs, and drive more than 5,300 enterprises in the upstream and downstream industry chain.

05 Storage trend: Small piles become a must, nuclear energy + promising

The single investment of large nuclear power units is about 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, which has the characteristics of typical heavy capital and heavy technology investment, and involves major national security, and the construction cycle is more than 5 years, and private enterprises are rarely involved.