Strengthening the use of renewable energy is conducive to the security of the energy system

Recently, China News Service and the Energy Foundation co-hosted the Energy China Forum with the theme of "Energy Transformation: First to break, Steady progress". Du Xiangwan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, former Vice president and advisor of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change, shared his observations and reflections on China's energy security and energy transition.

Du Xiangwan pointed out that "the use of renewable energy resources is within our control, and the bigger this piece is, the stronger our control will be." It does not depend on changes in international geopolitics, unlike oil and gas, which depends on changes in international geopolitics, which is conducive to the independence and security of the energy system. The "dual carbon" commitment declares China's determination and ambition for green and low-carbon development, marking the beginning of the end of the development model formed since the Industrial Revolution, and the rise of a new development paradigm will create a new modernization model for mankind and bring sustainable green prosperity to China and the world.

A new understanding of China's energy and resource endowment

We will strengthen the use of renewable energy

Actively and steadily promoting the "double carbon" action needs to be based on China's energy and resource endowment, and adhere to the first to break. Du Xiangwan proposed that it is necessary to fully and accurately understand China's energy resource endowment according to the latest practice and research data, so as to lay an accurate foundation for China's energy transformation.

Many people often use "rich coal, lack of oil, less gas" to summarize China's energy resources endowment, but Du Xiangwan believes that such understanding has fallen behind the development of The Times, he pointed out that under the demand for sustainable economic and social development, the realization of dual-carbon goals, renewable energy rapid growth. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of renewable energy exceeded 1.2 billion kilowatts, accounting for 47.3 percent of the country's total installed power generation capacity. Last year, China's wind power and photovoltaic power generation exceeded 1 trillion KWH for the first time, and renewable energy generation reached 2.7 trillion KWH, accounting for 31.6% of the whole society's electricity consumption.

"It should be recognized that abundant renewable energy is an important part of China's energy resource endowment, and the renewable energy resources that have been developed in China are less than one-tenth of the amount of resources that can be developed by technology, and the resource base of low-carbon energy transformation is rich, which is the premise of transformation." Du Xiangwan said.

However, for a long time, many people's understanding of China's energy resource endowment is not in place, there are limitations. Some areas with a heavy energy load only focus on their own coal, oil and gas and other fossil energy "heavy load, lack of resources", and do not realize that there are abundant renewable energy resources around to develop, thus forming a dependence on foreign fossil energy, and even affect energy policies and energy strategies. Du Xiangwan pointed out that energy transformation and energy security go hand in hand, and strengthening the utilization of renewable energy resources is of directional and strategic significance for ensuring the country's long-term energy security and guiding energy transformation.

The central and eastern regions have sufficient non-fossil energy resources

We will increase the rate of energy self-sufficiency

The traditional energy system is difficult to meet the three goals of "safe and reliable", "economically feasible" and "green and low-carbon" at the same time, which is often referred to as the "energy impossible triangle". However, Du Xiangwan believes that safety and reliability are the basic requirements for the energy system, at the same time, only economically viable energy will be accepted by the society, and green low-carbon is the general direction of energy transformation, so the new energy system that calls for double carbon must gradually achieve these three goals, turning the impossible triangle into possible.

With a correct understanding of China's energy and resource endowment, Du Xiangwan said that we have set a goal to reach more than 80% of non-fossil energy consumption by 2060. In the face of the volatility of wind power photovoltaic, it is necessary to make the wind-dominated power system safe and reliable through multi-energy complementarity, source grid charge and storage, commercial energy storage and other technologies, and build a new power system.

Central and eastern China is the main load area of China's energy and electricity, how to solve the energy and electricity demand in the east? Du Xiangwan said that eastern and central China must be "taken from the side" and "come from afar". The central and eastern regions should improve the energy self-sufficiency rate through non-fossil energy, and can not only wait for "west power transmission to the east."

For the eastern provinces to improve the self-sufficiency rate of non-fossil energy, Du Xiangwan expressed optimistic, he said, first of all, the eastern provinces are the leading areas of energy conservation and efficiency, is the priority area of nuclear energy development, is the advantage area of Marine energy development, is the receiving area of LNG imports, plus distributed photovoltaic, geothermal, biomass energy, including solid waste resource utilization, industrial waste heat and so on. Eastern China is rich in energy sources and abundant in resources. Through experiments and calculations, the cost of self-generated electricity in the east has been lower than the cost of west-east power transmission. Du Xiangwan said that the central and eastern regions should not only be consumers of energy, but also become producers of energy, and the transformation of energy production and consumption mode will make a large number of energy producers and marketers appear in China.

In addition, it is also necessary to use a lot of complementary energy, the existing coal power in the central and eastern regions to do a clean and efficient transformation, the use of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCUS) to carry out flexible transformation of coal power, so that it supports renewable energy peak adjustment, and the policy should also support coal and new energy collaborative transformation, which is conducive to social progress. It is also of great significance to ensure China's energy supply and demand security, environmental and climate security.

The energy transition is about addition

Instead of subtraction

"According to the amount of annual exploitation, China's coal storage and production ratio is 40 years, oil storage and production ratio is 18 years, natural gas storage and production ratio is 30 years, and non-fossil energy including water, geothermal, biomass, tidal, nuclear energy and other technologies can be developed resources are very rich, (to) steadily and gradually from coal to renewable energy based, which is a long-term energy security policy," It is a necessary path to carbon neutrality."

Du Xiangwan pointed out that at present and in the future, fossil energy is still very important, during this period of fossil energy and non-fossil energy to coordinate and complement each other, first stand and then break, build a resilient energy system, so as to ensure the current and long-term energy security. "Don't tear down the old house until the new one is built."

"We often say that 'broken' is the gradual withdrawal of fossil energy, and I suggest changing this withdrawal to a decline." The decline is certain, but I don't feel compelled to quit." Du Xiangwan suggested that by 2060, a little fossil energy can still be retained, and some industrial links will have a little carbon dioxide emissions, and China's carbon reduction capacity can remain carbon neutral.

"The energy transition is about adding, not subtracting. It is a long-term and arduous task, but the direction is clear. It is a national goal and a global event." Du also said that even if carbon neutrality is achieved by 2060, it is only an important milestone, not the end. Human society still needs to develop, and the future society must rely on the support of future energy sources. From the perspective of future energy, the significance and historical status of the two-carbon target can be better understood.